Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains!


(distilled_feni) #1107

http://vccinews.com/news_detail.asp?news_id=4078 - This will benefit KCP ltd’s sugar business in Vietnam.


(CommonMan) #1108

(vinay ambekar) #1109

Sugar_outlook_Oct_16-Mar_17 (3).pdf (1.2 MB)

Quite a comprehensive report…


(Raj A A) #1110

#sammy11 Thank u for the detailed rpt. It appears that sugar price bullishness depends upon consumption pattern of India during 2017-18SS. Further appreciation looks muted. Fingers crossed.


(Raj A A) #1113

Bumper result by Dwarkesh. Deferred Tax provisioning has dented PAT. Yearly EPS jumped 4 times. Yesterday fall may be due to general mkt sentiment and falling US futures. Ripe for re rating.


(saikathalder) #1114

But sir, dwarkesh today lost 14 points since opening. this good result is not accepted by market. why?


(Raj A A) #1115

Mkt appears to be hesitant to believe the sustainability of sugar story. Dwarkesh carries an inventory 18L quintals. Sooner or later mkt will realise the potential. Confidant of good results for next 2 qtrs.


(shrivaibhav) #1117

Been through few Calls of Sugar Industries
Overall the feeling is this year there will be production of around 20.x mil , next season 24-25mil , with Maharashtra also contributing . They expect prices to be stable around 35-37 kg for FY18 as well.
No chance of import as well , Supply may meet demand unless rainfall plays truant.
Companies have stock ranging from 20-30 lac Quintals , booked at around 27-30 /kg and realization of around 36/ kg . so this will drive the profits going forward.


(blueg_reen) #1118

What are your opinions on Ugar Sugar results?


(saikathalder) #1119

Why Balrampur chini is falling in last 1 week despite being fundamentally strong company?
in last 3 days, it fell 8%
Seniors please provide your views.

Thanks :slight_smile:


(h k gupta) #1120

It seems weak international prices are having a sobering effect but expectations of good monsoon should restrict imports and allow sugar companies to enjoy steady prices till oct 2017. H k gupta


(Raj A A) #1121

Ace invester again bought 38.1 Lac Dhampur sugar shares @Rs 181.4/- He is continuously adding as and when opportunity arising. His cumulative holding now increased to over 6%. Golden UP trio (Balram/Dhampur/Dwarkesh) have posted excellent results. Their carry over inventory as on 31st mar 2017 stands at 61Lac Quintal, 39Lac Q, 18L quintals respectively. This iteself assures a decent mumbers in coming Qtrs. Anticipating good monsoon and production ramp up in Mahrastra/Karnataka, prices may moderate in H2 Fy18. In any event Ex mill price may not fall below 35/- for next 3 qtrs which provides the UP mills to post good numbers.I am invested and adding on dips .


(shrivaibhav) #1122

True that , But sugar being cyclical sector , market will never give them higher pe multiples.
UP based Companies will continue to post profit in medium term for 4 qtrs atleast . Mr Sarogi , during the conc call indicated that he is very postive about the structural changes that govt is bringing about in the sector as state & centre being on same page now , and who knows in future may allow export as well , he remained bullish on medium-long terms , especially on UP based companies . he also commented on water table levels better that South.however any major re-rating can happen with policy changes , till then the scripts will be oscillate , thats my opinion.


(Changu Mangu) #1123

Friendly note: Purchase was 3.81L Shares not 38.1L Shares :slight_smile:


(Raj A A) #1124

I stand corrected n thanks for the info. I will be careful in future. Nevertheless, irrespective of the qty, it bolsters the sentiment.


(Raj A A) #1125

Mr Anil Kumar Goel has acquired 16.54 L shares of Dhampur sugar in the past 5 months ending May 31,2017.He along with his family holds 10.28%.
http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/228bcc75-155d-4535-b7c5-48a1e32f74a2.pdf


(Aditya Mehta) #1126

why there is so much of weakness in this sector?
is this due to drop in global sugar prices? are there any further chances of duty free import of sugar?


(saikathalder) #1127

Balrampur chini is falling since posting results.
Some analysts are saying, sugar stocks already had a good run, so not much fuel left.
balram has stopped below 30 day moving average.
It is not getting enough support at that price point.

the 150 day moving average for balram is 142. if it breaches this level, then it is a serious problem for the investor!
I am not tracking other sugar stocks!
I am also looking for possible explanations.
Seniors please advice.


(nikhilbora) #1128

Can anyone help me for Chart of international prices of Sugar for last 12 months. I am trying to analyze the price trend. Please help. links to any website or blog will aslo help. please give leads


(harshrulz) #1129

Pls check if this site can help you…