Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains!


(umang_1991) #1086

I too hold Balrampur, but IMHO it is the worst stock to participate in the sugar rally. When all sugar stocks are up 50to100% in last 6 months it is hardly 20-30% up. I have observed that when there is a sugar rally, balrampur goes up 2-3% in a day while Dwarikesh and Dhampur are up 10% at least…


(Sugarbull) #1087

Balrampur can move very high since it is included in F&O space. Good news for your favorite stock.Technically it is going strong.


(Sunilbothraslg) #1088

Any suggestion about BAJAJ HIND , have moved sharply on last 2 days


(devansh_god) #1089

Elephants move slowly, but are also much harder to stop!!

DISC: Invested.


(Raj A A) #1090

I agree with #Umang_1991. In spite of all plus points and robust results, debt free status, good management, things are not moving on price front, albeit very slow appreciation.Even ace investors have reduced their stake in Bal Chini.What is that hidden there which we are missing?


(mahi) #1091

Today’s article in Moneycontrol with Mawan Sugar chairman

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/stocks-business/govt-looking-at-long-term-solution-to-increase-sugar-production-in-up-mawana-sugars-2264179.html


(mahi) #1092

Does any one know what is up with Uttam Sugar?
Since Dec30 2016 - NSE: 54.90 it has more than doubled till today 24th April 2017 NSE:141.90 .Clearly this has been an underdog. I am not able to find any relevent data as to why this stock has risen so much and how far it can rise?

In the midst of the confusion when we all thought or are thinking Sugar rally has almost come to end this stock has sneaked it way and has silently been climbing it’s way up towards the top.


(Emh) #1093

Mill is in west up. Max volume growth. Big investor has built position in it.


(mahi) #1094

As per screener , promoters have pledged 33.16% of their holding. So not sure which big investors you are referring to ? Could you please be more precise as to which investor you are talking about?


(Raj A A) #1095

Pls visit BSE site and look for SHP details, u will get the info. In this case Anil Kumar Goel has built a position in Uttam.


(Raj A A) #1096

Uttam sugar has negative book value with promoter stake pledging. Not looking attractive after the appreciation of nearly 2.8x. What prompted AK ji to take a position in Uttam. He along with Dolly Khanna have taken a stake in quite a few sugar scrips during last 2 qtrs at what is perceived to be the last leg of the rally. As savvy investors, they have a better reading of mkt pulse and their late entry suggests more upside expected fm sugar sector. Mehan ji, any comments?


(CommonMan) #1097

Short term : UP govts diktat to settle cane arrears by this month is keeping the supply high. This is creating downward pressure on the prices. In a couple of weeks, production will end, then prices will start firming up again.

Medium term : The current heat wave and lack of summer showers mean the next year yield will be low. It would be about 23-24(Isma will say its close to 30) . Meaning ,next year too there will be a short fall. Sugar prices will be strong for 12-18 months.

Long term : Depends on govts conviction to implement the rangarajan formula or something similar. If successful, the chronic cyclicity would end . The sector could be rerated up. There is some talk…hope it gets done.


(skrksb61) #1098

Can someone please enlighten me about Oudh Sugar’s status regarding relisting dates etc of the demerged entities, as I am unable to do so. Thanks.


(Dhananjay) #1099

No strong production rebound to be seen in Maharashtra for 2017-18


(CommonMan) #1100

Superb article. Reflects the actual ground realities . In comparison most of other dailies just churn our govt or ISMA announcements ( misleads )


(umang_1991) #1101

But remember world sugar production is set to rebound


(Raj A A) #1102

Due to El Niro phenomenon developing in the Pacific, Australian and Thailand production is expected to be affected. In the event unless Brazil produces bumper crop, global situation is not going to ease in next 12 months.


(mahi) #1103

Sugar subsidy restored back to Rs18.5/Kg

http://indiansugar.com/NewsDetails.aspx?nid=8618

Most refineries may not go for import as it is not cost viable

http://indiansugar.com/NewsDetails.aspx?nid=8610

UP Sugar Mills need to pay Interest @15% on arrears

http://indiansugar.com/uploads/ET-08052017.pdf

Dalmia Sugar results 402% increase in PBT YoY.

http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/D2D6AEBE_7124_472D_A13C_907718DA92CA_194017.pdf

Despite this humongous increase in PBT Dalmia has been hammered today at the bourses by 10%…any idea why it took such a beating?


(CommonMan) #1105

(CommonMan) #1106

Dalmia results are good. NP was affected yoy due to tax outgo. Nothing to be worried about. The coming quarters would do better.