http://m.agrimoney.com/news/sugar-futures-slump-on-brazilian-cane-crushing-data--10164.html
The sugar upcycle has ended. Its time to quit and save our skins. All the hot money will rush to the door now.
Now I am scared of tomorrow morning opening: (
That means ISMA is telling there will be no sugar shortage ??? Southern States and MH already staring at Sugar shortfall.
Factor: Cane availability - sugar prices - output sustainability
What i can surmise is, cane crushing season has started early in most states and by greater number of mills in comparison to previous year.
Reason should be to take advantage of high sugar prices.
In States where there is shortfall in cane supply , could the mills have an early end to crushing season?
So although Sugar output has increased in the short term whether same ouput levels can be maintained in coming months or will they taper off ?
If yes ,this would create upward pressure on sugar prices .
Now in states like UP, TN where there reportedly is sufficient cane available for crushing for most mills they could manage to sustain output levels for the coming months as well.So this will create surplus for the Indian market and have downward pressure on sugar prices.
Will the increased output in couple of states combined additionally with + 7 Lakh MT stockpile be enough to compensate for decrease in output in some others to meet consumption demand upto next year ?
If yes , would sugar prices remain stable with slightly downward bias and not go above 40 rs / kg for 2017 ?
Other Important factor to track and keep posting twice a month here is cane crushing and output data out of Brazil which will also help determine the trend of sugar prices in coming months …
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UP Cabinet Fixes Sugarcane State Advised Price At Rs 305/Quintal From Rs 280/Quintal
Great News
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This is the sad state of our CNBC Analysts. No idea on economics but willing to comment on eveything
Varinder Bansal @varinder_bansal 13m13 minutes ago
Higher SAP means sugar cos have to pay higher to farmers – unsure why sugar stocks buzzing…clearly move by UP govt to please farmers
Where can i find UP SAP Price news ?
SAP price fixed @ 305. market was expecting 320++. Its a great news. Rs 25 increase in price is very nominal as compared to price rise in domestic sugar. If sugar prices remain firm at cmp ( Which is thing is a very very strong case) front running sugar mils Like Balrampur, Dhampur, Dwarikesh and Triveni will mint sweet money.
SAP was a long overhang on UP based mills. AT last its over and it came at much lower levels which is a great relief.
SAP fixed at 305…if true, its incredibly bullish news…its even less than what the sugar industry was anticipating …
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Bajaj hindustan & Shree renuka have the highest inventory but they are the worst performer, this is due to their high debt level or any other reason?
true
for renuka, their brazilian subsidiary has been the biggest burden, once they finish filing bankruptcy claim, the stock will come back to fair value
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Can you please explain impact of this news in more detail ?
Cost price of cane would around 30 rs + conversion expenses around 7 rs . If Sugar prices remain at same levels , has not the mills profitability decreased per kg compared to previous year?
My understanding is that with announcement of the new SAP prices atleast downside risk has decreased but profitability margins from sugar would decrease , right ?
Wether mills are able to repeat same performace in the coming months ?Mills will have to report higher sugar output aided by combination of reduced interest cost and increase in ethanol and power profitability.
One more important point is that cenvat credit benifit can no longer be availed by mills on molasses.
Today, the MD of Mawana sugar has said that with SAP od 305 , sugar mills will be able to earn 4-5 rupees per kg of sugar…balrampur produces around 70 crore kgs of sugar, and Dhampur around ,45 crore kgs…if we take 5 rupees as the pre tax profit…then we can see that Dhampur can earn around 150 crores of profit next year too… on a conservative estimate.
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Now that sugar stocks are performing, there is no activity on the thread. We like to post only when stocks are down, trying to reconfirm our thesis.
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L&T mutual fund bought 4.53 lacs shares of balrmpur chini in open mkt purchase hiking their stake from 4.98% to 5.16%.
http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/FE8ACAD7_B377_487D_894E_E5E33533E095_154139.pdf
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Yeah…L&T mutual fund now holds a huge 1 crore 26 lakh shares of Balrampur…the fact that they bought such a huge quantity indicates that atleast L&T mutual fund does not believe that the sugar rally will not fizzle out in the near term…may continue for 2-3 quarters…
The following sugar stocks are showing turnaround on weekly and daily charts…those interested in momentum investing should definitely consider these stocks …with appropriate stoploss
Balrampur…stoploss 115.90
Dhampur…purchade on close above 118
Dwarkesh …stooloss 258
Oudh…purchase on close above 112
Dalmia sugar…purchase on close above 121…
And here is SP Tulsyans positive views on UP based sugar stocks
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Dear Mehnazjee - Kenneth Andret who was a start manager from IDFC Funds has also bought Balrampur Chini. he has a number of small cap success stories while he was in MF industy.
Regards
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Dear Mehnazji,
Thankyou for all your consistent updates and replies for the benefit of Us All, this is indeed very helpful,
the UP Gov has fixed the SAP price which was really a relief for UP based mills and all UP mills have started performing… but not all stocks are performing, eg Ugar Sugar making new Low 
the only good part is Nifty and Mid-small caps corrected badly and not showing much of good apart from Sugar stocks which have some patches of green in this red market …
my worry and question is US Sugar 11 has corrected to $19.7 from $23.9 so should this rally in our Indian stocks last long …
and does anyone have any Global Production update to be certain that global crunch is there for Sugar !!
last update we saw from Egypt crisis and lately that Brazil production is good !
Regards
Manish.
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What do you think will be the record date for Balrampur Chini buy back?
I’ve some shares purchased in August I think. How can I opt for the buyback if I’m within the record date?