Maybe Triveni…once the demerger happens…The govt restrictions are mostly for Maharashtra based companies which have been hoarding sugar…Triveni has been stagnant in the 45-60 range for too long…
Demerger date ( record date ) likely to be in november 2016 for
triveni Eng .Huge value unlocking likely.
Cane sowing data update-2weeks ago i updated the same and it was down by 8% …it still remains the same down by 8% @45.77 lakh hechares till 9sep 2016 compared to previous year.
No major improvemnet expected as monsoon nearing end.
Condition to remain very tight in sugar market for next 1.5 years minimum.
Regards
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Public sentiment is turning against a water guzzling crop like sugarcane in drought prone areas of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Telangana…Govt may not step in to help those who want to persist with growing sugarcane…In Maharashtra, there is added dimension of political rivalry between NCP and the ruling BJP…so long as the farmers are growing sugarcane it is difficult to wean away those farmers from NCP - which dominates sugarcane politics. In Mharatwada area where BJP has good support, it seems that the govt wants to discourage sugarcane farming.
Latest ISMA update…mentions target qty and price as 40-41 average
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Frp may increase by 40-50/- per quintal as per news today.your view on same… how much u were expecting.
It wil be one more negative out of the way when happens…but impact on cost of manufacturing has to be seen
Regards
FRP has zero impact. SAP is the one which would be critical
I have been writing time and again that the best way to monitor the progress of the sugar rally is through the actual spot price in the wholesale market…
.today in the wholesale delhi spot market there was a good jump in sugar price (SUGARMDEL) …it has now jumped to 3910…the trend reversal, if any, will become clear by the end of this week…hopefully, in case of a turnaround I will post the relevant chart on this discussion thread…
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Guys…pl note that the sugar market (actual wholesale spot price) is disregarding all sort of negative news…
…dont try to analyse the impact of all the govt measures on sugar rally with our limited resources…lets leave it to the market to decide on the impact of such measures…the best judge in such cases is the collective wisdom of the market as a whole…
…while some of us are taking increase in FRP as a negative indicator, the market appears to be taking the opposit view…it takes it as an indication that the govt expects sugar price to rise hugely from present level in the coming sugar season…
…therefore, lets concentrate on just the wholesale sugar delivery price …
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Sugar Limit on Mills will affect Maharastra mills. Most of the Co Op mills in MH hold 50% of their production as inventory.With all the Govt notification of limiting the stock to 24% as on end Oct 2016, market will end with the deficit 2.4 Mn Tons.
What is the impact of this news on International sugar situation?
Sep 13 2016 : The Economic Times (Mumbai)
China may Sell Sugar from Stockpiles
China could be preparing to auction sugar from its huge state stockpiles for the first time in five years following sales of millions of tonnes of corn and cotton over the summer.The government is under pressure to sell off stocks of commodities that have piled up in its warehouses after years of buying.
Please check Today’s TOI Bangalore City Edition. Sugar Production is down by 6 Lakh tonnes and in Southern Pennisula Monsoon is down by 13% from Long term average
Mandya is the Sugar Bowl of Karnataka and all the issues related to water in that place as Dam has very less water.
The only thing I am worried about the sugar cycle is the UP SAP announcement. Sugar mills are behaving foolishly again like they did in last sugar cycle. They are offering obnoxious prices to poach cane from other mills’ catchment areas and mind you Government is fully aware of this. So if mills can pay high prices to attract cane from other areas, what stops Government to significantly increase SAP. It also goes with the flavour of the season- reward farmers in election year to attract votes and no hike in cane price for last 3 years. It would be very difficult to get a relief from courts as well in such a scenario when mills are ready to pay higher prices themselves. I don’t understand why these sugar mill owners are so short sighted in their approach. They always shoot themselves in the foot. I can easily see SAP of around 340 per quintal in UP for this season.
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Agreewith@dgoel25 but I feel, Sugar Mills must be foreseeing significant shortage in Sugar going forward.
Any Idea, if SAP is around 340 per Quintals, what will be its effect on per KG price of Sugar ? I think currently SAP is 220-230 …
Fully agreed I foresee a SAP of at least 350 else farmers will flex their muscles and force government to announce. I am sure willy farmers will demand 400 SAP this time. The play is on sugar price rise which center may not like so they are stuck.