Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains!

However, the worst case scenario is seen in the commercial crops like sugar cane and cotton. The targets set out by the ministry would expect sugarcane and cotton output to increase by 2.4% and 17.9% respectively. However, the trends in the sown area indicate that the crop under sugar cane has declined by 8% while that under cotton has fallen by 8.9%. That would make the achievement of the targets difficult if not impossible in the current season.
So the overall assessment is that while the good monsoons has improved the prospects of achieving the target set for important crops like rice and pulses it does not seem to have very much improved the prospects of others like coarse cereals, oilseeds, sugar cane and cotton. The country has to roll out more innovative programs to improve productivity of important crops if it is the raise agriculture output to much higher levels.

Will banning vayda increases the supply or production of sugar??
Finaly things will be decided by demand and supply principle.
http://www.sugaronline.com/website_contents/view/1246568

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That’s like 34 lakh MT.Correct? Is this the one held under PDS or we have more of sugar held by government which we should be aware of. 'coz in last rally in 2008 government released its sugar stock to maintain the sugar price. Please do let me know if i don’t have this correct.

Any one with an official link of inventory under government??

And this stock is separate to what sugar mills hold. They hold about 90 lakh MT.

I am now of the view that it is a good amount of stock to last and control prices. Anyone with any news what might have caused the sugar stocks to surge on 18th and 19th of August 2016 followed by drop today? The graph for these three days for sure looks like a mountain ride. A uphill ride followed by :mountain: downhill movement.

i just found below the link which tells adequate stock 'coz of which sugar prices might not increase.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/very-little-chance-of-sugar-prices-dropping-in-the-next-5-years-narendra-murkumbi-md-shree-renuka-sugars/articleshow/53824476.cms

Very Interesting times ahead :slight_smile:

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Really it seems…
Murkumbi is very conservative most of tyms…he saying this means a lot …he knows the inside data of sugar production …we all know 2017 will be deficit year but also this year cane plantation is lower by 8%…threating for DEFICIT in 2018 also…it seems this BULL RUN will continue for quite a long time…

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adequate stock theory vs Murkumbi’s prediction, don’t know which to go by :smiley:

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Sugar futures rocketting…new 52 week high to be attempted there…20.8 now…!i think next techincal target n resistance @23cents…!!
Once taken 29-30cents also possible…in few months…tommorow sugar stocks may zooom
Regards

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Drought looming over no3 (karnataka)and no.4 (tamilnadu)sugar producers http://www.livemint.com/Politics/14J1jALExl2k8YhV0Vr0RO/Karnataka-braces-for-drought-as-dry-spell-continues.html

http://m.timesofindia.com/india/Declare-Tamil-Nadu-as-drought-hit-state-Farmers/articleshow/53725171.cms

And floods over this year no1 producer uttar pradesh.

Drought in Karnataka affects not only sugar production in Karnataka but also Telangana, Ap and Tamil Nadu as the rivers Krishna and Cauvery first pass through Karnataka. In Maharashtra too, inspite of good rains, the dams and resorviors are yet to reach their full storage capacity. In such a scenario, the Devendra Fadnavis govt is in no mood to indulge the opposition controlled sugar mills or encourage sugarcane crop in Marathwada region.

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In the face of goods sectoral fundamentals both Domestic and international…the continuing weakness in price movement of the leading sugar company - Balrampur Chini is a cause for concern…don’t know what sort of negatives the market is anticipating…hope that the stock starts getting buying support atleast in the next two days…otherwise it appears to be headed towards 100 rupess …

My guess is that sugar stocks again start upwards trajectory after November once crushing for next season start and value of sugarcane SAP of UP is known clearly particularly considering that this is election year. Govt can do any promise to win elections that why market appear to be fearful. Even past sugar cycle chart suggests that from aug to oct period sugar stocks are generally in consolidation mode with downside bias and again they start moving up from nov to march. In case of sugar problem is also conflict between central govt and state govt approach and their self interest otherwise there is no need to take reverse policy action when ex-mill sugar price is hardly Rs 34-35 range while it is well known fact that Rs 32-33 is avrg cost of sugar production. This is clear case of political battle between various parties to unduly influence UP election in name of sugarcane farmer and sugar. I guess it is likely that top in sugar stocks likely to made during feb-april 2017 unless some other major events like US fed rate hike, Brexit etc distort the liquidity position and financial market considerably.

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Yes…I agree with you Nirajji…in the present correction many sugar stocks (both UP and non UP based) may see a 50% correction from the recent peak levels. I think for some time, we may have to take our cues from the weekly charts…and on weekly charts the supports are at much lower levels…

On the other hand, as per monthly charts, in a sugar rally- Stocks have not corrected / fallen for more than 2 months…neither in the rally of 2003-2006…or 2009-10 or in 2014 (modi rally)…So this time too, the correction may not last for more than 2 months…we are already done with one month of correction in August…maybe one more month of pain in sept…

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this phase was expected as negative trigers are more than positive trigers…and Q2 results are far away…new leg of rally will resume from mid sept may be…and october i am expecting to be quite good …rally to pick up in diwali month.
Current data and event suggests that this rally due to sugar deficit may go much long than expected .
Karnataka & tamilnadu almost on verge to declare drought
maharstara condition is also average type .monsoon has decreased significantly here .
this rally can well go till 2018 easily.

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I was writing about 1-2 months correction…but still hoping for a month long correction only…looks like its going to be a 8-10 weeks long correction…that’s how it is…market does not listen to us…we listen to the market.

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Yes market is supreme and test nerves .it doesnt gives multibagger returns just like that…only last man standing gets that return with strong pateince ,solid nerves and conviction.

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