Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains!

Very true Mehnaz. This is the first step in taking out the weak hands. Everyone who wanted an exit has now got one

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Is someone this group part of any major broking firm? if yes,then god bless him/her.

Cant believe my eyes. I am so so happy.

Well a good rakhi gift :relaxed:

I am back with my silly questions.

Can someone please please explain these movements in Sugar today?? What kicked in these upward trend? Did we miss any announcement from government or any international news :anguished:?

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Hi @Mehnazfatima,

Its great to read your views and charts on the sugar sector.

I was just looking the balrampur and Dhampur sugar charts from 2003-2006 and multiple times they have had a healthy corrections to 200DMA , where they have taken support before the next upmove.

In the current sugar stocks uptrend the only time it came close (not even touched 200DMA) was during feb/march 2016. This was when the whole market was undergoing a healthy correction and people talking of bear markets etc …

That makes me wonder if the current consolidation that we are seeing in Sugar stocks is not over, and after a minor upmove like we saw today, sugar might resume the downtrend again and take support at 200dma?

Also your andrews pitchfork chart that you presented earlier for Dhampur, the lower end of the channel was around at 87 levels which also is its 200 dma level.

Thoughts?

Niranjan

DISC: No investment in any sugar stocks yet

I think every sugar investor got some relief today we had a very good bounce back. Mehnaz you were spot on with your expectations of a bounce by Thursday.
Just a small query are dhampur and balrampur still good to buy?

The following sugar stocks are showing signs of turnaround…they can be bought by those willing to exercise a strict stoploss…

It appears that Dhampur and Dwarikesh require further buying support for momentum indicator to turnaround…it may happen on Friday…

Mehnaz what indicator do you use to indicate momentum as you have done in the above charts.

Hello All … Specially to @Mehnazfatima Ji …
Take a Bow … Mam for your spot on chart studies and helping all of Us here with your superb Expertise …

It was a great relief day for all Sugar stocks, but what I really wanna know is … Is this just a relief rally and a bounce from oversold zones or there was some news or good announcement from GOI that every sugar stock rallied and this rally is gonna Go strong … I tried searching but could not find any News or Announcement ? Can anyone update was there any Good News today…

Worth a read

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Relevant part
Sugar mills have been incurring losses for the past two-three years due to high cane prices and low sugar realisation. So, it makes economic sense for them to fetch more money from wherever they see room for it. No mill is interested in sugar production for the time being. They are interested in ethanol production with adequate realisation. But, because potable alcohol manufacturers pay Rs 1-2 higher, sugar mills are inclined to meet their requirements first," said V N Raina, director-general, All India Distillers’ Association.
Report Dated Sept 17, 2015


Sakthi Sugar
Sonia: Your industrial alcohol business has seen the EBITDA half this time. Although it is still a small portion of your business but your EBITDA has gone to about less than Rs 5 crore versus Rs 9 crore same time last year. Is there a problem there? A: Yes, last year we had produced more alcohol because sugar prices were lower, we were actually concentrating on producing more alcohol. So, the quantity has come down quite drastically last quarter to this quarter.

Report dated Aug 12, 2016,

The point is that sugar manufacturers are now reducing sale to alcohol companies (as sugar prices will rise).
What is this alcohol ? potable ? Country made liquor ?
If it is so, then their is going to be supply deficit to alcohol manufacturers.
So alcohol price will increase (as demand wont reduce :stuck_out_tongue: )

How to take advantage here ?
Does anyone know any alcohol company using primarily own production …

Is this analysis going off the tangent ? :stuck_out_tongue:

UP government in action now !!

http://www.forbes.com/2006/04/21/imperial-sugar-in_gs_0422intrepidinvestor_inl.html

Blast from past. Talks about 2006 sugar rally .

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Do we know how much inventory does our Government hold as of now?

Its near to 3.4 M MT as I remember…I read it somewhere.

Any feedback on the Q1 results of Renuka…

Government is planning to stop chini vayda karobar. No no price increase would be allowed in chini