As posted earlier, Ugar comes out of the lower circuit around 41…a lot of retail investors were trapped in this stock at much higher level…now we can expect the stock to go up to 56-58…but in the meanwhile a lit of weak hands have been shaken off in Ugar and operators appear to have grabbed those shares…lets see how it goes from here.
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Would it be possible for someone to post information regarding the Provisions available with the government to control Sugar prices ?
I was just reading about the Essential Commodities act under which sugar is covered. It essentially states that the Act empowers the Central and state governments concurrently to control production, supply and distribution of certain commodities in view of rising prices. The measures that can be taken under the provision of the Act include, among others, licensing, distribution and imposing stock limits. The governments also have the power to fix price limits, and selling the particular commodities above the limit will attract penalties.
Anybody has an idea about how effective these policies actually are ?
Dear Mehnaz, very rarely a stock that has sucked in weak retail hands goes up once again with the same ferocity. IMHO ugar has seen a lot of retail entry and operator must have exited it for good. So in the next sugar rally it will be some other stock in the sector that will rally hard. The high that was seen in ugar may perhaps not be seen again in the near future
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Keeping my fingers crossed for a bounce in Balrampur chini by tomorrow closing; which will cause my momentum indicators to turn up and announce the end of the present fall, which has been quite steep.
Is it time to move out of Balrampur for now?
May be renter later
If you want you can do it…exit now and buy when it shows signs of turnaround…maybe 5 rupees lower from here or 5 rupees higher…if you find it worthwhile…
I have exited by trading portfolio a few days back and holding on to my investment portfolio…
Ma’am, what is your view on Shree Renuka now? Why has it come down after the approval of re-organisation plan of its subsidiary? Is it pure operators play? Your views are always greatly appreciated.
Disc: invested recently
Renuka is safe to purchase above 15.40…below that it can even fall to 14.10…sugar investing is momentum game…as long as the momentum was there all the sugar stocks ran up and now that there is loss of momentum and no new near term triggers, all sugar stocks are going down…those which ran up steeply are falling more tha those which went up comparatively less.
I can see that…i am staring at tunnel rite now and its tough ride 
No wonder all these 
have indeed taken a toll on all the sugar stocks. None seems to be safe.
Is it due to ban on Sugar Future? or the Ethanol Subsidy roll back?
In upper i am down by 150/share 
, Dwarikesh 110/share . I am just getting low sugar. .Someone mentioned i am sitting on FD, well looking at the trend dont know how true would this be.
Is someone able to to see 
as far as diwali what might happen?
Most likely you will loose your balance capital too if you do not exit on time. Smart money (read Vallabh Bhansali) has already exited stocks like Balrampur Chini.
so take your informed decision and be ready to risk substantial part of your capital.
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Mahi: in a cyclical turnaround, it is the leaders which start moving up first and then the weaker stocks follow after a time lag…I think that a similar pattern will be followed after the end of this 1-2 month long consolidation…The recovery may start with balrampur and Dhampur, as these stocks are showing good buying support at lower levels.
Insofar as you portfolio is concerned, if you switch over to Dhampur or Balrampur or Dalmia, then you would break even when any of these reach a price of 150 from the present level.
In the next three months, there is a very very high probability of Dhampur / balrampur reaching or even crossing 150 rupees…so if you play it well you will most likely recoup your losses and by the end of the year your portfolio should be in considerable profit.
The only thing that can cause you to suffer permanent loss of capital is when you sell your stocks at a much lower level…but if you are invested in the sugar companies with very strong balance sheet, you will have the confidence to hold on even if there is one more bout of price fall…
The rest I leave to you…best of luck.
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Thanks @Mehnazfatima I am not going anywhere as i dont have any option but to stay and watch the drama unfold and wait for movie to reach climax.
All this leaves me with much thought , could this have been predicted in a precise manner?
In all above discussions we have been talking about fundamentals supported by graphs and various ratios and mcap. People suggesting buy at current market value. And then all people with real knowledge of stock market talking about technical stuff but none thought measures government could/would take and its impact.
Please take a note i am in no way criticizing anyone or neither i am trying to demean or neither i am trying to hold any one responsible.
I am just expressing my opinion.
Can we really predict prices of shares, do they really work on fundamentals 
? If yes , then why do actions of operators impact so much.
People dont take me wrong my portfolio is just down by 4lac on my investment of 12Lac, so may be its getting in my head. 
Prediction and Precision hardly go hand in hand, and surely not in stock market. The market however, does demand Patience.
One of the reasons to purchase a company based on your own research/analysis is to insulate your decision making and emotions from the market vagaries.
A 33% loss on your portfolio is surely painful, but now you can look at this experience as a learning curve and introspect what could have been done to mitigate the inherent market risks.
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While Losses can surely go to the head, we should always remember that Stock Market is not a playground for speculators.
No one, in the entire world, can predict (speculate) precisely where the prices shall go. We can all just make educated guesses of the general direction of a stock and/or market. ANYONE, who tells you otherwise is either cheating you, or worse, cheating themselves. Those who say that they do “Trading” or “Invest” for Short Term, are simply, either fooling themselves, or are so naive that they ought to be set straight by the Greatest Humbler of them All - The Stock Market.
I should know; I have burnt my hands multiple times by “trading” in the market. And every once in a while, when things start to go right for you and you foolishly think that you are invincible, you are again shown to be quite insignificant in front of the collective knowledge of the market - by events like the 2008 crash, which btw are not all that rare and happen with alarming regularity.
The current sugar dampener, IMHO is not even a hitch in the current bull run; more like a normal, expected correction. @mahi If you are so concerned by this small dip, how, do you think would you fare, if suppose, a black swan event hits tomorrow and main markets (BSE/NSE) correct by 20-30%? The correction in MidCap/SmallCap space would be even more. What is your plan then? Wouldn’t you be in a much more distressed mental/physical state? Would all the investing, making money etc. be worth it, should you lose sleep/health over it?
Sorry to ask the above hard questions, but, they’re the most valid questions I regularly ask myself when I fret too much about the markets.
Operators, or people with deep pockets, can surely build short-term momentum by speculating, but as in the story of Hare and Tortoise, slow and steady, with ample time on their side, would always Win.
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Not to derive sadistic pleasure or anything Mahi but a couple of weeks back I had advised you that making money in stock markets is not a easy game and you should not be investing if its for a short term.
We all study stocks and sectors fundamentally as well as technically so as to limit our risk factors. But even that is no guarantee for sure shot profits.
Infact when it becomes too easy to make money it’s the end game being played. Most sugar stocks were flying as though there was no tomorrow and have now provided no exit to the investors.
I hope for the sake of my investment in Balrampur that this sector does not go the real estate,infra,airline etc etc way where the stocks never came back into reckoning after flying high and promising the moon to investors.
As every analyst on this forum and outside have said hopefully there is one more BIG RALLY before the eventual downfall happens next year.
For now keep praying that your luck is strong and you get to sell your shares at a profit and tons of experience for future investing.
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Disclaimer: No interest in sugar stocks. Occasionally peek into this thread to see how much fun others are having and check their emotions with every rise and fall in price.
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What you are doing is speculation and NOT investing.When one buys a piece of land for its output that is investing but when it is bought with the expectation of selling out later at a higher price it is speculation. Same with stocks, etc. In fact Warren Buffet says buying Gold is not investing but pure speculation based on the above logic i.e it has no known output.
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You’ve put quite a bit of money in this for an average Indian family. Hope fully it is a small portion portion of your family portfolio and an even smaller portion of your families net worth.
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Whether you are investing or speculating you have to do your own work to make work and profit. Without work you will have no conviction and without conviction you will buy and sell at the wrong time. This is not about others advice being right or wrong. Conviction will allow you to master your emotions when the market is in turmoil like now and make the correct decisions.
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Do not chase a story if you haven’t done your work, especially after it has run up and away quite a bit.
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Only take so much risk as will allow you to sleep well at night.
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Trading / Speculating / Investing is simple but NOT easy and takes a lot of preparation and handwork. Do your work and build a base. Start small. Market is a very unforgiving place and there are no shortcuts.
Hope this helps.
btw: Black swans often cause market falls of over 50% in the main indices/large caps and individual small/mid cap stocks usually fare much worse.
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Thanks @Meetesh , I know and I am not complaining! and yes now my vision has changed from short term to long term . And i can not hide it from my family beyond December’16 
I am just as a normal human expressing myself on this market vagaries( learnt this from @kunalshirodkar). We humans express more on loss than on a gain. This is a fact.
We hide our gains and show our losses.
I am not complaining and i take full responsibility for it. My all intent of expressing myself in a sadistic manner was to know can we small retail investor invest and get the desired results? To this you , @devansh_god and @kunalshirodkar have rightfully said no we can not.Otherwise we would all have been god by now.
So my basic question still remains kind of unanswered. Even after studying company financials and market fundamentals the external factors beyond our reach prove to be so much of a trigger that the company/market fundamentals all kneel down in front of it. Why these “external factor” prove to be of such an importance? Why cant we judge how is market going to react?
And their timing of announcement has always been during the time when people think either all is going good or all is going bad . And only few chosen are aware of it. Were these measures taken by government to correct share prices or to control sugar prices.
I know i have said enough and i should keep mum. Like all i would also sit tight till Diwali and wait to see how the drama unfolds.
Also just one last query on price,we all know there is sugar shortage and if by Diwali prices rise to 48( in retail , we know future has been banned in sugar) would the government import sugar?? If yes then how would this impact the prices of sugar stocks? Would they increase or decrease? Can we know 
this in advance?
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Lesson I have learnt from the market is small investor are last one to know :
the beginning of a bear market
and
end of the bull market.
Bull market in Sugar stocks is over, better small investors protect their capital .
Amit Anam
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I have read posts on this board predicting the end of the bear market in the sugar sector a year back almost at the exact time that the bear market ended. So it is not right to say that investors cannot predict the end of a bear or bull market . Investors who have studied the historic sugar cycles have reason to believe that the Bull Cycle will end next year at the most and not before that.
However a lot of stocks ran up in this rally and they may not be the ones that will run up once again after this powerful shake out comes to an end. Stocks like Balrampur,Dhampur offer a good safety net and will benefit a lot with rise in sugar prices over the next one year.
Disc : Balrampur Sugar forms just 10% of my portfolio and hence a rise or fall does not effect my portfolio much.
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INDIA still has not started importing and people are saying rally is over in SUGAR…
REAL DEFICIT has still not been seen by India…it will be felt when INDIA starts importing SUGAR…
guess what that news will do to SUGAR11 futures and hence to india’s Domestic Sugar prices.
Story is yet to unfold completely.
India sugar consumption for 2016-2017 is something 26.5 million tonnes & we are going to produce 23.26million tonne(official forecast that is going to revised gradually to below 22 million tonnne and that is huge)
so kindly think twice before writing off sugar rally. Let first INDIA enter “REAL DEFICIT” situation and than see the affect on Sugar prices and stock prices…
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