Umangji…just a simple question…did you father in law advise you to buy Triveni when it was @ 13…
In my humble opinion, even industry people forget that the sugar upcycle lasts for a minimum of two years…and we have completed just 9 months of upcycle…
Mills appear to be making huge profits now because they had booked huge losses last year and marked down their inventory to 27 rupees per kg
The sugar produced in the coming sugar season will be valued at around 31 - 32 rupees per kg…so if by June 2017 if the sugar price for mills goes above 40 rupees, only then we should continue to hold it…otherwise it makes sense to sell sugar stocks. But if the mills are able to sell sugar above 41 -42 rupees then we can conitue to hold sugar stocks till sugar prices top out.
I don’t understand what bubble you are talking about? Could you elaborate more please? I see upperganges playing a sitting game, but I dont get why it is doing it. Well we will see how market reacts to it on Monday when results become public.
@itisworld and @krish Thanks for digging out the demerger, i was trying to find more on this but nothing came up. why do you think information is not available on this topic on internet? I am holding upper from 380 level…any date when when the demerger to be take place?
The current inventory sale of almost all up companies will wipe off their Long term debts.
The Interest cost itself will give another jump in profits next year
I hope you know why the prices are up, its because Brazil, India and Thailand are experiencing drought. UP farmers may not be 100% dependent on rain they may be misusing ground water but remember whenever there is a good monsoon you have better yields. So good monsoon will have their impact on sugar prices, however less you want not to believe that. Its behavioral bias that you are experiencing, you are refusing to see the facts contrary to your position. Try be neutral and you would be able to picture stuffs much better.
In line with others like Dwarikesh and Dhampur…Oudh Sugar too posted a decent set of nos…PAT of 17 Cr. EPS of 7.4…and too carried their huge inventory for Q2 & Q3 for realizing the same at higher prices. I think full year EPS for Oudh can be 40-44 range. It seems to be undervalued at present when compared to its peers. Lets hope good results will also come from upcoming results of Rana and KM sugars.
I hope you see the ground realities. India is neither exporting nor importing sugar now. ICE is at 5 year high and Indian sugar stocks tumbling.
So there is nothing Brazil etc as such unless u own Renuka or KCP. Also, ground water is not suitable for crane crop. The Maharashtra crane crop is not available for next year either.
Acreage is expected to come down to 7.80 lakh hectares in 2016-17 against the cane area of 10.5 lakh hectares in 2015-16. Sugar production is, therefore, estimated to be around 61.5 lakh tonne in 2016-17, as against 84.08 lakh tonnes in 2015-16,” according to ISMA.
The results to me look very promising but I am not able to understand how the market reacted to it. Its down by 17 today, an idea why?
So far whichever company has declared the results we have a downward trend in price, anybody flashlight please
Ugar price downward after results.
Dwarikesh downward after results.
Upper Ganges downward after results( atleast today)
All this downward doesn’t go with what we have been discussing here. We wait for the results with full anticipation and even if results are better still we see a downward fall.
This gives me one thought do all these statistics which we keep on pondering over really matters .
Disc: Just my thoughts ,may be i am bit annoyed as i am invested in all the above i mentioned
Mahi: I do not know your purchase price and when you have purchased the above sugar stocks…but irrespective of the stock fundamentals …if you look at the monthly (long term) charts of the stocks as on end of July…it will be quite apparent that these stocks were ripe for 1-2 months of correction…I am enclosing the charts which are almost self explanatory…Those of the retail investors, who bought at the very top without have a correct long term perspective over the price movement are now destined to suffer atleast notion loss for a month or two…
Guys…since past few days, i have been talkinh of 1-2 months of correction and expect the sugar stocks to move sideways…dont get tempted by the prospects of an immediate bounce / turnaround
(read this paragraph specially…i have been mentioning this ISMA is forecasting higher sugar output for 2017 i.e. 23.5mt and eventually slowly-2 they will lower their forecast as they have done earlier this year… i expect it will be lower than 22mt>>>>An official at the state’s Pune-based Sugar Commissionerate, who did not want to be named, said the state government had not yet “allowed” the Commissionerate to put out sowing data for the 2016-17 season to “prevent panic in the industry”. “ISMA figures are much more optimistic than what our ground surveys tell us. We think the acreage is even less than 7.8 lakh hectares as ISMA projects and production could fall even below 5 million tonnes. )
Its simple psychology, more the expectation of good numbers build up, more people buy, then when actual numbers come, they just sell the news, creating a wave of profit booking at what ever price its trading at.
Rally in sugar stocks is slowly dying a death. Brace yourself for more losses. Get out if you are still in black, sugar stocks are expected to fall more.
Meetesh: Balrampur has touched the support at 115 and bounced from there today…i am hoping that the support hold and the stock does not close below 114.50 in the next few days…
Balrampur was under extreme volatility compression and it has broken out on the downside today…if the stock does not recover in the next 1-2 days…then technically it goes into downtrend…
Its difficult to believe, sugar prices in domestic market (wholesale spot) now @39…ICE SUGAR 11 around 20.50 cents…prospects of a good Q1 result…AND Balrampur going in downtrend??? Therefore, hoping for an intraday price recovery…if not today…then tomorrow…or…
Dhampur too has broken the long, multiple tested strong trendline on the daily. I’m watching closely at todays close, for it will give vital information on trend reversal.
Really hard to fathom the apparent divergence in technical and fundamental aspects of sugar stocks. It really makes little sense!!
DISC: Holding Balrampur and Dhampur with strict S/L.
do all these statistics which we keep on pondering over really matters 
.
. What do you think will be the levels that Balrampur might fall Mehnaz ??