Even Upper ganges and Rana Sugars will post excellent results. Time has come to ride the rally.
Balrampur and triveni fully priced in for the gains
Apologies for the question, what do you mean by ‘fully priced in’?
calculate the possible inventory gain with 40% liquidation , remove other costs like Interest and Employee cost and calculate TTM NP and TTM EPS, give 10 PE , get the price and compare it with current price.
Got the facts wrong…hence deleting the post.
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KCP sugar is also worth the time invested to analyse…
Another important point that sugar investors need to consider is as that the sugar companies with very weak balance sheets, lots of debt and which incurred huge losses in previous years…they are being forced by the bankers to frontload their sale of sugar stocks to pay off the interest / debt.
We already have reports of Bajaj Hind front loading its sales in Q1 as also Dwarikesh…
therefore, after the Q1 result, investors may consider shifting from companies which have front loaded their sugar sales to companies which hold good inventory after Q1…because it is these companies which are going to rally in Q2 and Q3 while the front loader stocks will again be beaten down heavily by the market…once the euphoria subsides
@Mehnazfatima: Thanks Mehnaz
But if you look at the results of Dwarikesh which was declared yesterday at the below link, on page 2 you can see that as of 30th Jun 2016 company is carrying 11.02 lac quintal of sugar at 2664 per quintal.
I very new to this but should i interpret that this result is misleading?
Please clarify as i entered Dwarikesh at INR 372 a piece.
I think I got the facts wrong…i have deleted my earlier post.
KCP sugar also not good from sugar perspective, already getting 10 PE … However it has 1200 crores of land in Tnadue…
From that perspective its very lucrative
Dwarikesh only sold 37% of its inventory… 63 % is still there … no issues on that front
@Mehnazfatima thanks Mehnaz!
You almost gave me heart attack. Thanks you deleted your post. Now that you have deleted ,would it be safe to assume that in your calculations you had missed out something?
If yes, could you please share your chart for Dwarikesh , where do you see them till Q2 or Q3. Do you think it would go any further in Q2 ? Believe me i have invested money without telling my husband anything(he would need them back in December). And if gets to know , you know what is going to happen. 
And if no, then still please any fresh ups/down on Dwarikesh.
One last quick question: Apart from the companies own financial statements is there any other central database or third party which tells public how much each company is holding in inventory and what price?
I am just amazed by the facts you all get. I also want to contribute to the benefit of all.
Inventory details of all companies are available on moneycontrol Mahi
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My small bit of advice is that never invest money in stock markets if you need it back in a short time. Stock markets by their very nature are very volatile and if you turn out to be unlucky then you may have to exit at even a 20-30% loss. Ideally one should invest only when he/she doesn’t need that money for 3-5 Yrs. Otherwise it becomes a gamble and retail investors more often than not lose their capital in such situations
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For sugar stocks I can gurantee that shuch a long term view will always result in tremendous losses.
So Sugar sector please move carefully. Also adding to Q2/Q3, prices will increase further due to festive consumption. So inventory holders would be not be liquidating too much in 1Q we can expect fireworks in Q2/Q3 as well hopefully.
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Pls delete this post too as it is false propoganda,
@Mehnazfatima i am sure you must be busy and occupied with lot of work. Just when you get time i would appreciate if you could tell all of us here more about dwarikesh sugar.
I know it’s my risk which i am in without anyone’s responsibility but i guess in forum like these collective responsibility is a must. Let’s work for all and try to benefit all.
I mentioned earlier i am invested heavily in Uperganges , i am trying to work my way around this share/stock thing as i am new to this thing. I can assure you if i get to know anything i am going to put it on this forum for sure.
Waiting for your reply
Dhampur June Quarter : http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/58703C42_437D_444E_B942_D812E967D81B_142842.pdf
Looks decent at first glance and more important they seem to be holding the inventory for higher realizations in Q2, Q3 (festive season)
Yet Dhampur is down 7%, market isn’t happy enough?