Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains!

The current quarter result are fully priced in kcp sugar

Hahah u deleted balrampur


…yes kcp already priced in…but balrampur can show the levels of 140 plus around results…with net profit of 55plus crores…and that will take the Trailing eps to 9/- plus…Regards

Yes deleted balrampur bcoz i consider it overpriced compared to other plays

Eps wise biigest jumps will be seen in dhampur…upper ganges…ooudh sugar…all Up based cos will show big eps jumps…eagerly waiting for UP based mills results…they will be really realy good.Regards

Dwarikesh, Dhampur , oudh & Triveni looks set for gain big…

But problem with oudh is dermerger… Oudh gain going to Upper shareholders after demerger

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An article in Barrons today. Looks like the global sugar market is improving though it says, in India the supply is going to be short…

Horrendous set of results posted by Ugar Sugar. NP of just 1 cr as compared to 60 cr in the March qtr. This qtr results will separate the boys from the men in the sugar sector. I continue to stay invested in Balrampur and hopefully that won’t disappoint in this fashion.

Meanwhile Dwarikesh sugar stock has gone crazy. Up `30% in 2 days, anybody knows whats happening there. Also when is Balrampur expected to report 1Q?

Balrampurs result is on Aug 11th

Ugar had an inventory of 11 crore kgs of Sugar valued at 32 rupees per kg…and it has a marketcap of around 700 crores…on the other hand Dhampur has an inventory of 33 crore kgs of sugar valued at 27 rupees per kg and a marketcap of around 850 crores…

To expect stupendous results from Ugar was a folly…Those betting big on the south based sugar mills would do well to realise that the south based mills carry relatively very less inventory…therefore their gains from rise in sugar prices would be quite less.

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The fact of high inventory carried by UP based sugar mills has been stressed by S.P Tulsyan time and again. High inventory of UP mills puts them in a better position to reap the benefits of rising domestic sugar price.

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Very true Mehnaz. I guess thats why tomorrow’s result to be posted by dwarikesh will be more important. Balrampur has another 9 days of suspense left in it.

In the below article SP Tulsian has stated that the ex mill price of UP based mills has gone up to 37 per kg. If this is true then their next qtr results will br even better than this qtr.

The kind of upsurge which we have been seeing in the sugar realisation at Rs 37 per kg for the UP ex-mills and I don’t think that there is going to be any reduction because the kind of consumption which we will be seeing from the festivalseason is all starting from mid August that is with the all festivals coming in, so I am keeping my positive stance on all those things suddenly in spite of the stock limit news yesterday we have seen some kind of profit booking coming in on those stocks, but again today it all caught up so maybe in anticipation of the excellent numbers to be seen from the Q1, for Q1 from the UP based mills this buying must have come.

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Balrampur & triveni had inventories of 57 &43 crore KGs respectively.They will post excellent results in this & next quarter

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Wrong Balrampur has 56 Lakh Quintals as inventory , at a cost of Rs27 per Kg. rest is you to judge. This is from Investor presentation

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Dwarikesh nos. are released. They are superb YoY but muted QoQ. Not sure which one do traders look for and what was the market expectation. Price action is giving thumbs up and stock is recovering from day’s low on high volumes. Any key take aways for Balrampur Chini?

http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/C0045E34_7166_4D32_AB1A_67CC45E2E73E_133307.pdf

Results of dwarikesh are excellent and if we go by these numbers then one can be rest assured that balramwill post a good set of numbers as well

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Disclosure: I made additional purchase in dhampur near the support line (in green) when the momentum indicator turned up @ 119…

DHAMPURs EPS will be much higher than balrampur.
Dhmapur has already given breakout. not it can settle above 150plus after results provided results doesnt diasappoints.
right now all looks good lookin at UP based Dwarikesh results…
time has came for UP based big boys now
Best Regards