due to rupee depreciation, astral may book some m2m losses in Q1 and this might effect their margins, if stock falls due to this it makes sense to buy as they should be able to pass on the burden to customers and by Q4 they should be able to recoup these losses.
[quote="subashnayak_19_, post:160, topic:657686122"]
> Hi Subhajit,
>
> 1> No idea on Bayer, not tracking it
>
> 2> Depends on your time horizon/risk appetite.
>
> Ajanta wont give multibagger return in 1-2 year time frame as it has given in the past. 20-25 pe range is the average pe range for ajanta type pharma company. So you can't expect to get benefit of pe expansion. All you can expect is return on eps growth.
>
> And by looking at the past record, and secular industry, ajanta seems like a stock for long run. So one can expect 25-30% compounding from it in average case. In worst case if pe contraction happen to a pe of 18 something, even a 35% growth shall give you ~0% return in next 1yr. In best case 40% growth and same pe shall result in 40% growth.
With these data the decision is yours.
>
> 3> I am not sure. My hope by reading fellow vp boarder's posts I feel that it should be able to pass the cost to consumer. Still I dont know whether any forex issue will crop up or not, and yes, than how big will it be, and will they spread the loss to multiple qtr or not. If you remove these uncertainties, Astral to me is the best stock to own with high chance of 40% cagr type return.
>
> 4> Cera management have given a 20% type growth forecast. I feel there is scope of pe expansion from current 13 odd level to say 15 odd level in 1 yr. If it happens it can give you 40% return, other wise 20% off return can be expected from it in 1yr. If it falls say 10% odd from cmp, it would be a very good buy for me (450-470).
>
> Sold all of somany ceramics, not tracking it. I dont have a clear cut growth target for Aarti drugs. I do have min/max expected return calculation for the same
>
> 22
> Sales g 3Y | 15
> NP g 3Y
[/quote]
5.
| Kaveri Seeds | Ajanta Pharma | Alembic Pharma | Astral | Cera Sanitary | La Opala | Aarti Drugs | Poly Medicure | Accelya Kale | ||
| Fundamentals | ROE-3Y | 25 | 24 | 29 | 25 | 26 | 19 | 16 | 28 | 31 | ROCE-3Y | 34 | 22 | 29 | 29 | 34 | 23 | 16 | 33 | 45 | 24 | 10 | 44 | 26 | 23 | 21 | 23 | 37 | 42 | 60 | 43 | 30 | 78 | 16 | 8 | 27 |
| Avg | 35 | 28 | 32 | 35 | 29 | 36 | 17 | 23 | 24 | |
| growth-min | 30 | 35 | 20 | 35 | 20 | 30 | 20 | 25 | 25 | |
| growth-max | 40 | 40 | 30 | 45 | 25 | 40 | 25 | 35 | 35 | |
| pe-min | 16 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 22 | 9 | |
| pe-max | 20 | 24 | 20 | 22 | 15 | 19 | 6 | 25 | 12 | |
| curr-pe | 17 | 24 | 19 | 21 | 13 | 18 | 6 | 25 | 10 | |
| Upside-min | 21 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 8 | |
| Upside-max | 63 | 41 | 36 | 49 | 42 | 48 | 35 | 38 | 56 |
Reduce Ajanta to 12% of my portfolio, converted the same to Kaveri seeds, Astral, La Opala and Repco.
For Ajanta: on the worst side at growth of 35% and a pe of 18 implies ~0% return in next 1yr (Best case 40% return @25 pe, and 40% growth). Hence decided to move to stocks with better worst case, and better average case expected return.
Sorry Subash Ji, But looks like a bit of too much analysis to me.
Ajanta can have much better growth this year than 35-40% due to margin expansion plus base effect of last yr 15 crs tax issueā¦
Also what is your rationale for assuming 18-25 PE range. **BSE Pharma is at 45 PEā¦ & ajanta has much better fundamentals than Ajanta. **So why canāt it sell at more than 25 PE??
**
**
I meant to say-
**BSE Pharma is at 45 PEā¦ & ajanta has much better fundamentals than BSE pharma index.**So why canāt it sell at more than 25 PE??
No idea how come Pharma pe is at 45pe.
Sun @38, DRL @24, Cipla @22, Wockhardt @6, Stride @5, Divis @18, IPCA @25.
So my thesis is that in order to command 38 kind of pe sun pharma is commanding, you need to do few things at the same time
1> Consistent growth track record, even during economic downtime
2> Large market cap, so that anyone can have a good bite of you.
Ajanta Pharma, being a midcap company (@2700cr macp, ~75% hold by promoter), wont be able to attract substantial investment from very big guys, as the available mcap is too small for them. No one can buy 50/100cr worth of share of ajanta without skyrocketing its price/pe. So I have a reason to believe it wont sustain such high pe for a very long time. One good, but below-expectation quarter, and you will see a mini pe contraction.
Regards,
-Subash
** BSE index.So **
Hi subhash
could you briefly outline your SIP strategy into stocks, especially with regards to how you decide which stock you would want to add to in a particular month.
Thanks
Hi Sunny,
I have no hifi strategy for doing SIP in stocks. They are pretty basic, and straightforward.
1). Invest in good, high roce/roe, low debt, reasonable pe growth stock with good growth visibility.
2). Target percentage allocation for each stock is directly proportional to your conviction level, and expected upside.
3). Each month divide money to 4-5 chunks and invest in 4-5 stocks which are lagging behind expected %age allocation to take them to expected percentage of portfolio.
4). I try to do some sort of market timing, taking into advantage of time lag between largecap and midcap/smallcap. They seems to work reasonable well.
(You need to track your portfolio return, and sensex return, and find the normalized delta (1+ pf return)/(1 + sensex return) - 1. Try investing at the bottom of the delta. see the attached image for more detail.)
Regards,
-Subash
hi subhash
thanks for the reply. I have a piece of code that takes the last 140 day (or any other interval for that matter) stock price of a particulat stock, and weights the % change in the stock in the last 60 days by 0.6 and that of the first 80 days by 0.4 (both weights and days can again be changed) . It can read in as many stocks as you want it to and after doing the simple calculation decribed above ranks these stocks. (stocks with best rank are kind of in the buy zone, though a few more constraints may be needed to prevent jitters etc)
I was wondering whether doing this exercise for most valuepickr stocks and coming up with a bi-weekly buy basket would be useful or not, Thoughts welcome.
The idea btw is based upon cumulative deposits linked to ETFs that many banks offer.
Hi Subashji,
After result,Now what is your view on Aarti Drugs?Is the Jun13 result very disappointing to you?
Hi Subhajit,
I have a small 1% allocation to aarti drugs. Not very happy with a flattish revenue/np profile of it for last 4 qtrs. But having said that a 5% dividend yield might give some cushion to share price.
Regards,
-Subash
Hi Subashji,
After result,Now what is your view on Aarti Drugs?Is the Jun13 result very disappointing to you?
In the current market scenario the stocks like Atul Auto/Indusind bank/Repco,which is the most attractive bet to you?
Hi Subhajit,
Atul auto is an excellent company in a slowed down sector. That it can do 15-20% growth in such painful environment says a lot about its capability. I am not invested in it as I see better growth in other stocks.
IndusInd is a very good banking stocks, and is expected to be the next HDFC. The problem with me is that I dont understand Banking/NBFC stocks much, and hence maintain a usual distance from it.
Repco is a good housing finance company targeting tier-2/3 cities, and small guys. Love this business model, and relative cheap valuation wrt GRUH. Has a small stake in it, planning to increase it with time.
Regards,
-Subash
Love this craziness of market. After 41% topline growth, and an excellent agm, stock fell by 18% to 447.
Sold all of aarti/granules/33% of la opala, and converted to Astral at 480 odd. Now Astral is 26% of my portfolio.
Note: The risk involved in having 26% of pf is a single stock is well known to me. Just that at 480 odd, I find risk-reward ratio well suited for me to take such risk.
[ Comment too short ]
Hi Bhavin,
I didnt get your last post. Did you miss something here!!!
Regards,
-Subash
Love this craziness of market. After 41% topline growth, and an excellent agm, stock fell by 18% to 447.
Sold all of aarti/granules/33% of la opala, and converted to Astral at 480 odd. Now Astral is 26% of my portfolio.
Note: The risk involved in having 26% of pf is a single stock is well known to me. Just that at 480 odd, I find risk-reward ratio well suited for me to take such risk.
Hi Subhash,
Congrats on your Astral buy. Tremendous faith in the stock and excellent execution has given you 20% boost in a single day. Even I tried buying at 470 odd levels, but unfortunately due a technical problem could not buy it and it zoomed to 560 levels the same day.
Shows that " When opportunity knocks one should be ready to grab it".
Vijay
Hi Subash,
It will be nice if you can post your updated portfolio 
[quote="jaunty, post:179, topic:657686122"]
> Hi Subash,
>
> It will be nice if you can post your updated portfolio
[/quote]
My latest pf
| Stock | Weight |
| Astral Poly Tec (17) | 27 |
| Kaveri Seed Co (9) | 19 |
| Alembic Pharma (13) | 17 |
| Cera Sanitary (13) | 13 |
| Ajanta Pharma (4) | 11 |
| La Opala RG (7) | 8 |
| Repco Home Fin (2) | 2 |
| Accelya Kale | 2 |
| Poly Medicure (2) | 1 |
