Subashnayak_1983's portfolio

(Subash Nayak) #141

Hi Ranvir,

To me both Astral/Supreme deserve a place in one's core portfolio. The good thing about these 2 is that they are operating in an industry which itself is growing 20-30 odd %.

Astral has a solid moat behind it, has solid RnD backing in term of foreign partner (like ARBL), as a huge market size because of the obsolesce of GI pipe, and superiority of CVPC over PVC. To me this is nothing but a consumption-themed midcap moat-driven-growth play.

Supreme as we know is a leader in indian plastic industry. It has solid ROE, solid growth record, nice divident payout. To me it is a psuedo-play on indian consumer story (plastic as we know is a basic requirement for growth these days). It is also Hitesh bhai's new favorite.

These might not be cheap, but as we know good stuff comes with a price. I am expecting a slow and steady growth in stock price for these 2 companies.



(Subash Nayak) #142

Added Ajanta/Astral/Unichem/Cera/Atul/La Opala/Caplin Point/RS Soft/Orbit export/Granules.

Following a simple strategy of having majority of portion of my portfolio is quality midcap like Ajanta/Unichem/ARBL/Astral/Atul/Cera/La Opala. Plus adding small chunks of beaten down stocks like Granules/RS Software/Orbit Export/Caplin point lab so as to take benefit of irrational fear of the market for midcap stocks.

People somehow can't fathom the concept that not all midcap/smallcap stocks have pldeged share, and stocks with pledged share shouldn't be bought without asking for steep premium.

(Subash Nayak) #143

Latest portfolio. Bit diversified, but top 5 taking 50% of my portfolio. Feel good that slowly and slowly I am developing conviction in stocks and moving them to my core portfolio.

Stock Weight
Ajanta Pharma (8) 16.28
Amara Raja Batt (4) 11.24
Unichem Labs (6) 9.75
Astral Poly Tec (5) 8.60
La Opala RG (6) 8.40
Cera Sanitary (5) 6.88
Can Fin Homes (5) 6.15
Mayur Uniquoter (3) 5.01
GRUH Finance (2) 4.97
Atul Auto (4) 4.00
Poly Medicure (4) 3.57
Kajaria Ceramic (2) 3.25
Caplin Point La (3) 3.00
RS Software (2) 2.24
Aarti Drugs (2) 2.14
M&M Financial 1.43
Orbit Exports (2) 1.16
Supreme Ind 1.16
Granules India 0.75

(Supratik) #144

A very nice portfolio. Specially acknowledge your entry time in LaoPala

(Subash Nayak) #145

Get rid of GRUH, Kajaria, Supreme Industries. Current Midcap/Smallcap carnage provides many stocks with mouth watering valuations.

Added Ajanta, Can Fin, Cera, La Opala, Wimplast, Caplin, RS Software, Granules, GIC Housing Finance, and Somany Ceramics.

(Amey Desai) #146

Why do you feel that Supreme Ind & Gruh will yield you lesser gains than ones you bought ?

(Subash Nayak) #147

Because GRUH and Supreme are fairly valued. Whereas the one I have bought (like CanFin and Wimplast) are relatively undervalued. I expect better short/medium term gain in investing in such undervalued stock as compared to long-term fairly valued stock like GRUH/Supreme.

(Subash Nayak) #148

Get rid of Mayur (was 1% of my portfolio, not so exciting near term future prospectus). Reduced Amar raja (the fact of the matter that their auditor is an ex-employee of them, and they only do audit for ARBL, plus Hyderabad based company, political connection, auto sector slowdown combination doesn't sound good to my ear).

Added more of Ajanta, CanFin, La Opala, Cera, Astral, Caplin Point, Alembic Pharma, Aarti drugs, Granules, Somany Ceramics, Mahindra Finance and GIC Housing finance.

(Subhajit Das) #149

Hi subash,

what do you feel about the stock,'accelya kale solution'?....means that company's fundamental and stock's one year target....

(Subash Nayak) #150

Hi Subhajit,

I dont hold it, and has very less idea on it. Vivekji has been the main believer of "Accelya Kale story" and hence should be the one who can answer your query in good detail. I am thinking of taking a small position in Accelya in near future.

(Subash Nayak) #151

Latest portfolio:

Stock Weight
Ajanta Pharma (10) 17.91
La Opala RG (10) 11.25
Astral Poly Tec (9) 10.01
Can Fin Homes (9) 9.67
Aarti Drugs (6) 8.29
Cera Sanitary (9) 7.89
Alembic Pharma (7) 6.35
Unichem Labs (7) 6.04
Granules India (4) 5.64
Somany Ceramics (4) 4.51
Supreme Ind 2.57
Wim Plast (2) 2.28
Caplin Point La 2.17
M&M Financial (2) 2.07
Atul Auto (2) 0.98
Omkar Special 0.92
Amara Raja Batt 0.80
Kajaria Ceramic 0.65

(Ramesh kumar) #152

Hi Subhash,

Do you find any good buys at CMP.

Was looking to buy astral and kaveri, but prices seem to have run up. Is it a buy at CMP or wait for declines.

Bought some ARBL @ 260 last week.

Pls share when you find a second entry like La Opala.:)



(Subash Nayak) #153

Hi Ramesh,

I am SIP kind of guy, who buy bunch of good stocks available at decent valuation, with good growth potential once in a month. So I usually don't wait till stock reach the bottom, or under-valuation stage to buy more.

At cmp, I find Ajanta, Alembic, Astral, La Opala, Aarti drugs, Canfin, Supreme, Somany Ceramics good buy. Besides few more stocks like Kovai Medical, Kale Consultant are in my radar. I am waiting for result of Omkar Speciality to decide whether to increase its allocation or not.

I have exited Kaveri long back, and is not tracking it much. Have reduced ARBL to very low %age as the management have given projection of flat coming quarters.






(Subhajit Das) #154

thanks Subash...

Previously Subash Nayak wrote:

Hi Subhajit,

I dont hold it, and has very less idea on it. Vivekji has been the main believer of "Accelya Kale story" and hence should be the one who can answer your query in good detail. I am thinking of taking a small position in Accelya in near future.

(Subash Nayak) #155

Back to concentrated holding mode. My latest portfolio

Stock Weight
Kaveri Seed Co (7) 19
Astral Poly Tec (14) 17
Ajanta Pharma (9) 17
Alembic Pharma (13) 16
Cera Sanitary (13) 14
La Opala RG (12) 13
Aarti Drugs (3) 3
Poly Medicure 1

(Gautham U) #156

Hi Subash

I am no expert. But let me share my views on some of them

1). Aarti: Very high debt. Also, I don't think they make doctor prescribed products. More of a supplier to pharma biggies.

2). La Opla: Do they have any moat?. I think the brand hardly matters in the products them sell.

3; Alembic: Over the last few years, their sales hasn't grown much. Only the EPS has increased. I head some of their products will come under price control which might affect the profitability.

4: Kaveri: I think its too high an allocation. One issue I see with these kind business is that they will test your patience. They have only 1 performing quarter and the rest are meaningless.

I like Cera ,Astral, Ajanta.

(Subash Nayak) #157

Hi Gautham,

1). Aarti : Agreed that they have high debt. But historically they have been a high debt company. So that is not a concern for me.

What I like about Aarti is that they don't produce mom-and-pop generalized apis, they are a specialized api producer who supplies drugs to big names. It's promoters are buying from market every other day in small lots. What i like most is that they pay 25% of NP as dividend and still available at 5 pe and 2.5% div yield.

2). La Oapala : You don't need to have moat in each and every business to invest in it. And yes, La Opala has a brand value, middle class housewives do like to have branded stuffs in their kitchen and La Oapala has fits nicely. The new management seems to be good. Its is a middle class consumption + growth play.

3). Alembic Pharma: It is case of a good pharma company available at a discount to industry PE, reducing debt qtr by qtr. Management has given a target of 30-40% growth in export (and add rupees depreciation to it). Domestic sales should grow in 10-15%. So an overall 20-25% growth. Reduced debt implies another few percentage addition to eps number.

4). Kaveri: I thought I am under-invested in Kaveri :). I have added most at CMP post ground level feedback by the awesome team hyderabad of valuepickr. Experience tells me that Kaveri starts its upward climb to 20 pe level post June qtr. And we have a rough idea of how it will do in June qtr (by inventory number and ground feedback). If everything goes as we are expecting than it should reach 2000-2200 mark in 3-6 month time frame.





(Sagar Saxena) #158

Hi Subash,
Great portfolio.Highly biased towards growth stocks...thanks to ValuePickr smile Don't know much about Aarti.But all others have a lot going for them & are availaible at decent valuations(except an Ajanta,maybe) Looking forward to quarterly results.

(Subhajit Das) #159

Hi Subashji,

I've four question to you

1)What is your view on Bayer Cropscience?

2)Now do you suggest to add any fresh position in Ajanta pharma?

3)Somewhere read that,Rupee depreciation is a big issue for Astral. More than 70% of raw material is import and negligible export to offset. It will hit bottom-line. It is an industry wide impact, I think given the strong demand scenario this cost will get pass on to buyer. There may be a lag of one quarter.

Is it really bad for Astral?

4)After profit rises 21% in Cera what is your view on that?

5)Now,What is the target you see in aarti drugs,Somany ceramics?

(Subash Nayak) #160

Hi Subhajit,

1> No idea on Bayer, not tracking it

2> Depends on your time horizon/risk appetite.

Ajanta wont give multibagger return in 1-2 year time frame as it has given in the past. 20-25 pe range is the average pe range for ajanta type pharma company. So you can't expect to get benefit of pe expansion. All you can expect is return on eps growth.

And by looking at the past record, and secular industry, ajanta seems like a stock for long run. So one can expect 25-30% compounding from it in average case. In worst case if pe contraction happen to a pe of 18 something, even a 35% growth shall give you ~0% return in next 1yr. In best case 40% growth and same pe shall result in 40% growth.

With these data the decision is yours.

3> I am not sure. My hope by reading fellow vp boarder's posts I feel that it should be able to pass the cost to consumer. Still I dont know whether any forex issue will crop up or not, and yes, than how big will it be, and will they spread the loss to multiple qtr or not. If you remove these uncertainties, Astral to me is the best stock to own with high chance of 40% cagr type return.

4> Cera management have given a 20% type growth forecast. I feel there is scope of pe expansion from current 13 odd level to say 15 odd level in 1 yr. If it happens it can give you 40% return, other wise 20% off return can be expected from it in 1yr. If it falls say 10% odd from cmp, it would be a very good buy for me (450-470).

5. Sold all of somany ceramics, not tracking it. I dont have a clear cut growth target for Aarti drugs. I do have min/max expected return calculation for the same

Kaveri Seeds Ajanta Pharma Alembic Pharma Astral Cera Sanitary La Opala Aarti Drugs Poly Medicure Accelya Kale
Fundamentals ROE-3Y 25 24 29 25 26 19 16 28 31
ROCE-3Y 34 22 29 29 34 23 16 33 22
Sales g 3Y 45 24 10 44 26 23 21 23 15
NP g 3Y 37 42 60 43 30 78 16 8 27
Avg 35 28 32 35 29 36 17 23 24

growth-min 30 35 20 35 20 30 20 25 25

growth-max 40 40 30 45 25 40 25 35 35

pe-min 16 18 17 18 11 15 5 22 9

pe-max 20 24 20 22 15 19 6 25 12

curr-pe 17 24 19 21 13 18 6 25 10

Upside-min 21 2 6 14 0 8 8 12 8

Upside-max 63 41 36 49 42 48 35 38 56