Subashnayak_1983's portfolio


(Subash Nayak) #201

Dont know/Dont care .... Astral/Cera/PI Industries are for me multi-year high-growth compounding story. No plan for selling a single share of astral at cmp.

Cant disagree with the fact that It can fall 15% in next day, next month, next year. But that will be point for adding more of these stocks. (Unfortunately for me astral has started breaking my rule for not more than 5% of networth in any stock, so cant even add when price drop 15% less smile ... Otherwise I would have added loads of it at 250 level).

Regards,

-Subash


(Subash Nayak) #202

One exception to this plan, will sell a stock to buy another between these super compounding story if I see substantial valuation gap between 2 stocks.

Regards,

-Subash

:))

Is today right time to book partial profit in Astral?

regard,

Subhajit


(Subhajit Das) #203

:))

Is today right time to book partial profit in Astral?

regard,

Subhajit

Dear Subashji,

Very very Thanks...


(Subhajit Das) #204

Dear Subashji,Are you track Helios & Matheson & Marksans pharma?,if you are not tracking them plz check the stories,these can be mulibaggers(may be),I purchased both of them & sitting with good profit...

& one thing Subashji,my english is very-very bad,plz don't mind..

Regards,

Subhajit


(Subash Nayak) #205

My latest portfolio

Stock Weightage
Alembic Pharma (15) 17
Astral Poly Tec (14) 14
Cera Sanitary (11) 9
Aurobindo Pharm (3) 7
Poly Medicure (9) 6
Page Industries (5) 6
Repco Home (5) 6
Mayur Uniquoter (6) 6
PI Industries (6) 5
Ajanta Pharma (3) 5
Shilpa (5) 5
Tech Mahindra (4) 4
Selan Explore 3
NIIT Tech (2) 2
Hinduja Global 2
TCS 1
Mindtree 1

(JatinK) #206

When have you added these IT stocks?

Don't you think they have run up too much for the kind of growth US, Europe are showing?


(Subash Nayak) #207

I have added IT stocks recently (except TechM, which I have been adding for last 3 months)

I feel IT will be a multi-year export oriented secular growth story. There are couple of reasons for it.

1> Revival of US/EU economy

2> Weak rupee, with no foreseeable trigger for rupees appreciation

3> Cheap, and large supply of fresh college grads readily available. Not much competition for hiring these grads from other sectors.

4> India need to increase it export at the end of the day to control the CAD deficit. IT will be beneficiary for this trend.

5> Hugely underdeveloped domestic IT sector, can be the next driver for growth (remember 5T of NaMo has Technology,Trade, and Talent in IT).

6> There are also new emerging areas in IT like Big data/e-Governance, which can be benefitial for indian IT.

Regards,

-Subash


(Mallikarjun) #208

Hi Subash

Have read somewhere RJ mention I.T has matured.. May be we need to pick some niche players from the I.T group.. Are you tracking anything..


(Gyan Roy) #209

RJ also said that TCS can easily employ a million employees.


(Subash Nayak) #210

Hi Malikarjun,

Mine has been mostly macro themed, quality IT investment so far. Need to read a lot for getting feel the niche players and their potentials.


(Vishnu) #211

I was past shareholder of Hinduja Global Soln since 2009 and exited back at nice Profit. But recently there are lot of red flags (Diworsefied into 6 companies , EPS was going down despite of acquisition etc etc)


(Mallikarjun) #212

@ Gyan ; Ya Gyan they can employ..

Thanku Subash.. If you come across any interesting pick, let me know..

Regards

mallikarjun


(shivanand) #213

Hi Subash,

What is the number in the bracket against each scrip in your portfolio indicative of ?


(Dhananjay Kumar) #214

Most probably the numbers in the bracket represent the total number of transaction for that particular share. For example : Mayur Uniquoter (5) shows he bought this stock 5 times in total.


(surya kanth) #215

Hi Subhash,

The stocks you are holding are good stocks. All the stocks except Shilpa, Selan, NIIT, Hinduja I like other stocks. Your stock picking is good. But I did not understand Why so many stocks? Alembic and Ajantha are good stock but I think Pharma stocks and IT stocks are moving up because of current headwinds. But I personally feel Ajantha and Alembic are not the stocks which should get 25 PE's. The Problem here is in Pharma these stocks are not market leaders and don't know how they behave in bad phases. Obviously I am not comfortable in owning stocks that are not market leaders.

And one more thing:

take a bank like ING VYSYA where the margins getting moved to 4 -4.5 will re-rate the stock to 25 PE. Things like NPA, NIM, CASA determine the overall PE. 4- 4.5 margins and 40% CASA will put ING in the range of HDFC and Kotak.

But what can bring Pharma stocks higher PE's. The only answer I found is long operating history of growth. The point I am making here is what parameters make a pharma stock a top class stock and place it among the leaders. Because many pharma stocks are yet to come. Chronic Theraphy Area is a high growth area. In the near future there is still a lot for high growth pharma areas and domestic pharma.

Anyway if you would to comment on my strategy you can comment on my portfolio at

http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/portfolio-q-a/878769250 Link: ../../878769250

We can have a nice flexible open minded discussion.

Thanks,

Surya.

Weightage | 2 | TCS | 1
Mindtree | 1


(Subash Nayak) #216

Hi Surya,

Thanks for the nice words. I am a novice with 26 month odd experience in market. I guess my stock picking is more of a luck than skill.

As far as having so many stocks is concerned, I feel this is an never ending debate. I am reading Berkshire Hathway annual letter book (I have reached till 1992), and I see Buffett heavily diversified, not just in equity, but also in debt, sometime even in futures/options. And still he is considered the value investing guru. Personally, I know guys who are well diversified (with way many more stocks than me), and are still doing awesome.

To me, as long as I am finding stocks with understandable business, good management, low debt, 20% ROE/ROCE, good sales/profit growth, available at fair price, has suitable macro advantages, I feel no issue even with holding 40 stocks. The only issue is tracking all of them, nothing more than that.

I dont decide PE of stocks, market decides, so dont have view on what pe a stocks should have. All I decide is what stocks I should buy which all meets my all of the above criteria and seems relatively cheap to me. And, I know companies can have bad patches, that is why I have diversified. And as far as Alembic/Ajanta are concerned, they seems to be having their dream patches these days smile

Financial stocks are beyond my understanding. Have no understanding on them, so I usually avoid them, however lucrative they sound. Only one financial stock in my pf now - Repco.

BTW, you dont like Selan. And I have loaded Selan to 15% of my pf. That is market for you. Different opinion makes the market stuck_out_tongue

Regards,

-Subash

Why so many stocks?

Link: ../../878769250 http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/portfolio-q-a/878769250 Link: ../../878769250


(surya kanth) #217

Your stock picking strategy is buffets strategy. Actually I started with Ben Graham long back 5 years back. Then moved into Buffet. Now on Peter Lynch and Jesse Livermore. The real maturity came after Jesse livermore. Jesse Livermore teaches us how to buy at high price and sell at higher price. So slowly I moved from cheap stocks to Stocks that can get re-rated at higher price. I wait a lot actually for the price to move up a little as I did in Repco. Just to confirm if the market agrees with me. I came to a place where The moment I load a stock the stock starts moving up. Even ING Vysya Bank went up 10% after I bought but suddenly because of MSF rates and all that It went down. Now with a proper Strategy I can replicate success in each stock I buy.

"I dont decide PE of stocks, market decides, so dont have view on what pe a stocks should have. All I decide is what stocks I should buy which all meets my all of the above criteria and seems relatively cheap to me."

The above statement makes me think that "cheap" should be the final criteria in the stocks you buy. Is that so?

What I can tell is Now It is bear market and still we find people that say things are not cheap. But what happens to them in Bull Market. Investors become impatient in bull market. Because Prices are high!! and Some actually sell off and and sit on cash. You need a strategy that works in all markets.

On 26 months Experience: Market doesn't care. Stocks don't move Investors experience. I think your stock picking is a skill. Not completely luck. But Luck is with you to teach you how to keep her and enjoy her!!!

On Selan: Hey You can buy any stock, irrespective of whether I like it or not.

Thanks,

Surya.

I me. :)) :P

Regards,

-Subash

Hi Subhash,

The stocks you are holding are good stocks. All the stocks except Shilpa, Selan, NIIT, Hinduja I like other stocks. Your stock picking is good. But I did not understand Why so many stocks? Alembic and Ajantha are good stock but I think Pharma stocks and IT stocks are moving up because of current headwinds. But I personally feel Ajantha and Alembic are not the stocks which should get 25 PE's. The Problem here is in Pharma these stocks are not market leaders and don't know how they behave in bad phases. Obviously I am not comfortable in owning stocks that are not market leaders.

And one more thing:

take a bank like ING VYSYA where the margins getting moved to 4 -4.5 will re-rate the stock to 25 PE. Things like NPA, NIM, CASA determine the overall PE. 4- 4.5 margins and 40% CASA will put ING in the range of HDFC and Kotak.

But what can bring Pharma stocks higher PE's. The only answer I found is long operating history of growth. The point I am making here is what parameters make a pharma stock a top class stock and place it among the leaders. Because many pharma stocks are yet to come. Chronic Theraphy Area is a high growth area. In the near future there is still a lot for high growth pharma areas and domestic pharma.

Anyway if you would to comment on my strategy you can comment on my portfolio at

http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/portfolio-q-a/878769250 Link: ../../878769250

We can have a nice flexible open minded discussion.

Thanks,

Surya.


(Subash Nayak) #218

Hi Surya,

Dont know which personality strategy I am influenced with. Buffet have started reading him seriously a month back or so, and I must confess, I am loving it. His concept of return of retained earning makes awesome sense. And as usual his letters are full of wisdom.

As far as Jesse Livermore is concerned, I tried reading "Reminiscence of Stock Operator" book, didn't get anything out of it, left it halfway. Talked with a senior guy, who said he felt same when he read in 5 yrs back, re-reading after 5yrs made huge sense to him though.

Yeah, I give higher weight to quality than pe-based valuation, but I am yet to get out of my low pe bias. So, I end-up owning 20-25 pe something stocks, with good roe/roce, mostly from vp stable.

Regards,

-Subash

** I up. **

**

"I me." **

up because of


(surya kanth) #219

Hi Surya,

Dont know which personality strategy I am influenced with. Buffet have started reading him seriously a month back or so, and I must confess, I am loving it. His concept of return of retained earning makes awesome sense. And as usual his letters are full of wisdom.

As far as Jesse Livermore is concerned, I tried reading "Reminiscence of Stock Operator" book, didn't get anything out of it, left it halfway. Talked with a senior guy, who said he felt same when he read in 5 yrs back, re-reading after 5yrs made huge sense to him though.

Yeah, I give higher weight to quality than pe-based valuation, but I am yet to get out of my low pe bias. So, I end-up owning 20-25 pe something stocks, with good roe/roce, mostly from vp stable.

Regards,

-Subash

** I up. **

**

"I me." **

up because of

Thanks,

Surya.


(surya kanth) #220

I can tell you a Strategy to get out of that Low P/E bias. This is same I used to get out of such method three years back.

1). Start looking at stocks like growth machines or compounding machines rather than a buy low sell high tickets.

2). Start looking at scalability of the business instead of ROE. ROE is a static element and ROE can sustain only with growth. It increases with productivity.

3). My uncle gave me the best part. He is a real-estate businessman. He thought me how to think about market. Think more about market perception. That means If you see a business model you should be able to judge how a market can handle it.

4). Price is a resistance factor on 20% growth companies but not with 30-35% growth stars. That means you cannot afford to get wrong in 20% growth stories but you can enter at wrong prices in 30-35% growth stories.

5). When I asked why so many stocks, I thought you will understand but let me tell you something. 30% growth on 20% portfolio allocation is equal to 60% growth on 10% portfolio allocation. That means you do not need to have all low-conviction prospective multibaggers in your portfolio. Once in a while if you are attentive you can get stocks like Page industries where the conviction is high and returns are too good. If you get one such every year you will become a billionaire in 20 years.

Thanks,

Surya.