Subashnayak_1983's portfolio


(Subhajit Das) #181

Hello Subashji,

What is your view on Torrent pharma and PI Industries?

..plz suggest....


(Subash Nayak) #182

Hi Subhajitji,

Not tracking these 2 stocks.

Regards,

-Subash


(Subash Nayak) #183

Got rid of La Opala with a decent profit. Converted the same to Ajanta/Alembic/Accelya.


(shivanand) #184

Astral

Avanti

Atul auto

Ajanta

Accelya

Amar raja

Alembic

Can anybody add some more stocks starting with 'A' which are rocking or holding on despite blood everywhere?. All are valuepickr discoveries.


(JatinK) #185

Any issues with La opala OR you find 3As better on PE-growth scenario??


(Subash Nayak) #186

Unconfirmed rumor about some kind of price fixing, operator play, and circular trading in La Opala. So felt that let's harvest the crop, before some storms come and destroy it :).

I have a philosophy of lower return at the cost of a sound sleep at night. Selling La Opala was a part of that exercise.

Regards,

-Subash

Got rid of La Opala with a decent profit. Converted the same to Ajanta/Alembic/Accelya.


(Subash Nayak) #187

My latest pf.

Stock Weight
Alembic Pharma (15) 24
Astral Poly Tec (17) 21
Cera Sanitary (10) 9
Ajanta Pharma (3) 8
Mayur Uniquoter (6) 8
Poly Medicure (6) 5
Shilpa (4) 5
Kaveri Seed (4) 4
Page Industries (3) 3
Ipca Labs (2) 3
PI Industries (3) 3
Repco Home (3) 2
V-Mart Retail (2) 2
Accelya Kale 2
Tech Mahindra 2
Pidilite Ind 1

Alembic/Astral has increased weight due to recent run up. But this time lesson learned from ajanta pharma episodes, so no profit booking to reduce their weight in pf.

Planning to add more of Mayur, PolyMed, PI Industry, Shilpa, Repco, and Tech Mahindra.


(Vivek Gautam) #188

Good performing picks by the prodigal Subash.

Best part is almost total absence of banks & very little financials except for Repco.

These have been the drags on most of the portfolios who had them.

Give your selection criteria of these picks.


(Subash Nayak) #189

Astral - 40% compounder in past, should easily do 30-35% compounding in next 2-3 yrs

Alembic - Was a no brainer buy at a pe of 16-18, export growth will take it to new highs

Ajanta - Pharma growth engine. Suitably positioned in emerging market, and targeted therapy segments, which are the fastest growing segment in pharma. They have been growing like crazy, and new plant will be ready in few qtr.

Cera - Branded consumption play, good growth. Recent expense on advertising will give rich dividend in future.

Mayur/PI/Polymed/Shilpa/Kaveri/Vmart - well discussed in their threads in vp

IPCA labs - Another lesser discussed good 20-25% pharma compunder, with a big portion in export, and should get benefitted by weak rupees.

Page Ind - One need to study Gordon's growth formula, to understand why using only PE as valuation matrix for high dividend payout stocks is utter foolish. At dividend yield of 1%, 30% growth, it is a no brainer investment for me.

Tech Mahindra - Near 100%+ growth y-o-y post satyam merger, weak rupees, export play

Pidilite - Fairly valued consumption play (Want to add Asian Paint along with it)


(Sagar Saxena) #190

Weight |
|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

Tech Mahindra | 2

|

**Nice to see someone homing in on TechM.The valuations are inexpensive & strong growth makes it even more attractive.
Any reason why IT is still <5% of your pf? Don't you think you have enough of consumption play already? :)**


(Subash Nayak) #191

Hi Sagar,

I must agree, I missed the IT bandwagon, mostly due to my general aversion to IT stocks, and largecap stocks. But having good pharma stocks (which are equally good play for export, and weak rupee play), I never missed IT stocks.

On a macro theme, I feel IT, Pharma, Consumption, Export, Rural, and Agro themed quality stocks are the stock to add currently.


(Excel Monkey) #192

What a portfolio

Man you deserve a standing ovation

What's your take on alembic at current price?


(Subash Nayak) #193

Hi Excelji,

Thanks for your encouraging words. I am just a kid learning the tidbits of investing.

At 20 pe, Alembic Pharma has no longer the pe difference between it and average pharma pe (20-25) for the company of similar fundamentals. It was fun investing when its pe was less than 18.

Now, I would prefer investing in a basket of quality pharma stock like Alembic/Ajanta/Ipca/Lupin rather than just Alembic pharma, as there is no longer pe difference between them, of similar fundamental.

Regards,

-Subash


(Excel Monkey) #194

Thanks for your reply


(Ramesh kumar) #195

Hi Subhash,

Did you ever look into Suven Lifesciences? Came with very good results.

Would request you to give your opinion on its attractiveness

vis-vis Valuepickr pharma picks.

Ramesh


(Subash Nayak) #196

Need to study the company in deep detail, was not sure Jun qtr has one time earning or not. Looking at sep qtr, it seems it is not due to one time charge. Will try to analyze and create a thread for tracking it.

Regards,

-Subash


(Atul Garg) #197

Suven is broadly in CRAM and drug discovery business. The revenues is mostly from Crams. Drug discovery can be big but there is lot more that needs to be done in that front.

June and Sep quarter results are superb as the company has delivered an intermediary for a product which is in pre launch phase. There is still more than a year before there molecules are commercialised. So these revenues is a one time thing. It will not be there in H2Fy14. The company is expanding and is establishing a plant in Vizag. approx capex is 110cr with 45 cr debt and 65 cr from internal accruals. There has to be couple of molecules in commercialsed stage for CRAMs to deliver consistently, which at this points of time are not there.

In Drug discovery, they have a promising candidate SUVN-502, which is in clinical trial phase 1-b. They have big capex requirements, to the tune of $20m, for SUVN-502 to take to phase2. This is a time/money consuming process and results are not certain.

There are couple if things that can go wrong with Suven. Though mgmt seems to be doing all it can, a lot needs to fall in place for it to be considered as a serious investment candidate.

I have small token posistion in suven from lower levels.


(divyansh ) #198

Subhash

i would lyk to knw ur views on the sugar cycle. hw much as an investor we shld rely on these commodity cycles. sugar ahs been down and out for 7 years now. sugar as a commodity is going to be here and demand supply things changes as the cycle changes.

what is ur opinion on the sugar industry. renuka and other are now lossmaking (but is it not the tym when no one is interested in them) . PSR theory suggests a turnaround (if) will lead to manyfold returns.

regards

divyansh


(Subash Nayak) #199

No idea, have zero experience on playing with cyclicals.

Regards,

-Subash


(Subhajit Das) #200

Is today right time to book partial profit in Astral?

regard,

Subhajit