mntolia , Its all well and good if you can make money. No question about it. Even I had invested in this script long back and made profit. I was helping the previous thread to advise that don’t just rely on a single script that too with too many factors to be suspicious about. Some time you can get trapped in those scripts forever. Many times, We spend our considerable time in researching on the integrity of a company when there are new things to be learned from other scripts.
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The euphoria drives shares beyond true valuations all the time. And valuations per say go for a toss in a bull run. But that does not change the fundamentals of a company. Sanwaria is a clear case of re-rating. Company has delivered great set numbers for last three quarters and as long as it continues its good performance, the share price would keep reflecting it. Besides for an FMCG player, a PE of 20-odd is not a big premium. I am unaware if there is a manipulation behind its run or not, but the high delivery volumes (above 90% in last three days) and entry of reputed FPIs gives me confidence that the story has some merit to it. Investors who entered at lower prices have good margin of safety as they hold on to it and the new ones are still finding it hard to accumulate enough due to regular upper circuits. Now till the music stops, who knows for sure if one was riding an AU/HUDCO (etc.) or maybe an IB Ventures, Dmart et al.
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Thank you so much for taking the time to reply. Yes indeed I am learning the “it depends” or variants of it.
Thank you also, for clarifying the significance of “clockwork” publishing of results. Very grateful for the feedback. Sincerely.
What is wrong with publishing result early! It is good for investors like us. Remember those companies who publish result very late and we keep waiting for results.
Also, it is common saying that if results are bad or something is not good then result comes very late. So, opposite may apply here. Because results are good so management is energised to publish. After all they are human too! 
Disclosure: Sold most part around 19.5 but holding some. If it corrects a little then I am here to catch again.
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is anybody able to purchase more of this stock?
Thank you. Yes I am a newbie - but no I don’t chase single digit stocks as a rule. I have this portfolio called “gambling” to which I have assigned a fixed amount of money. Small. I use some very simple “strategies” - if you can call it that - for the gambling portfolio! Basically I look at the “volume shockers”, pick out companies, start reading as much as I can about them, keep tracking them for a few weeks and then invest (only if the amount in the portfolio has not already been used up!). I also look at cheaper stocks that mutual funds have invested in and then look for their even cheaper peers. I stick to the assigned amount in the gambling portfolio even if the stock is surging! Thank you once again for taking the time to reply
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I concur with most of what you have discussed about your portfolio mgmt and stock picking strategies. However, I take exception to the use of word ‘Gambling’. Pardon me for being picky on such a small thing. I agree picking penny stocks is not an absolute science and can be risky, but its far from being called gambling. Big investors have made a fortune out of it. And once you accept that its not gambling, it may open you to a whole lot of books and literature on learning this art.
PS: Sanwaria is not a penny stock but a small cap stock as per its market cap.
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Hello Nolan. I understand your taking exception to the word gambling. Its a word I use for myself. I have a very poor understanding or background of financial analysis - and while I am trying, through this forum and others to understand some of it I think I lack the particular area of the brain which deals with numbers. Apart from - profit and loss. Truly. So my portfolio has names which everyone will recognise and accept as being stocks they have heard of and may invest in. There are a percentage of stocks - let’s stick to the word I used - which I myself had never heard of. I do not have the financial acumen to back my strategy and I make my choices after reading, reading and reading and trying to get a general idea of what the company is doing, how long they have been doing it for and how their particular business might shape up. I am perhaps the worst person to be on Value Pickr because, try as I might, financials elude me. Does not stop me from trying but… One of the important things I pick up from ValuePickr is the lengths contributors go to, to try and demonstrate the pros and cons of a particular company. I find that hugely informative. I have had a decent return on my portfolio but I am sure I could do better.
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Many common man in our society think I am gambling. Stock market = gambling according to them. It doesn’t sound pleasing but it is how they think.
So, it is not about penny stocks but for all. Few asked me to suggest a stock to see what comes in their luck. I deny suggesting as when a stock gives profit in their time then they becomes greedy and bake me for more. If loss then they can seriously abuse me. That’s mindset.
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Well, I’m seeing lot of “concerns” regarding the price movement and some even termed it as gambling, of course it’s according to their research. Even I would tag the stocks gamblers with certain parameters. But those parameters which I don’t see in Sanwaria. So here’s my quick note.
- The price movement is not manipulated. It’s strongly supported by the positive triggers. The first trigger is back to back awesome results. Here’s how I concluded that the results are not manipulated and there was no creative accounting happened.
The C-Score is financial industry wide adopted check. Here’s more on it.
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Sanwaria was identified as “Agro oils” (Edible oils) earlier, but they do beyond that. They export basmati rice, maida, atta, poha etc., So to have more clarity, then now changed to “Consumer Ltd” (FMCG player). For an FMCG player at the current PE and backed by wonderful results has excited more crowd in the counter.
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Reputed FIIs like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanely has taken a small part in the company which has added even more confidence on this counter
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During 02-Oct-17 to 01-Nov-17, the price movement is supported by huge volume and there’s no insider trade for the said period.
Daily Volume
- Everyday I see an average of 30-60Lakhs shares been bidded for buying, but the sellers are very less, so of course, the next day it will touch the UC.
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Dear friends
I am new to this forum but have been reading the views expressed here very keenly. Some very genuine points are being raised regarding the management quality (their past records etc), their overly ambitious plans and so on. While these things should definitely be taken into account and to be honest it creates some serious doubt for anyone considering to invest in it. This surely is an important aspect as we all invest our hard earned money in the stock market with an intention to multiply it and represents one side of the coin (sanwaria in this case). Now, whats the other side? Being an optimist ( which I hear almost all equity investors are ) the other side to this coin for me is a management who have learnt from their past mistakes and are willing to make up for it (which in Porinju’s language means “chor” management willing to correct themselves.). If thats the case, then we are looking at one of the most promising turn around story unfolding itself and even if it stays intact for say another 2-3 years our country will have many new millionaires who were aware enough to spot it and had the gut to latch onto it early. Of all other things, Sanwaria now is putting the risk/reward formula to test which I for one am thoroughly enjoying.
Cheers !
Discl - Invested.
PS - The views above are just to share both aspects of the case on a lighter note with the readers.
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Dear @adiparihar,
I appreciate your views. But after reading some of the posts on VP and on other forums of Sanwaria investors, I feel like digging down and revealing my behavioral approach towards Sanwaria in the interest of all newbies who are latching on to every single available share in last one month like their last hope.
When I see a stock like Sanwaria defying the law of gravity, then I know that it has the potential of taking my investment to the zero-gravity space in quick time, leaving all earthly bodies behind. But at the same time the rocket has equal risk of getting destroyed and hitting the ground with full force. I am happy as it flies, but there would come a time when the flight would slow down. By then the valuations would already be slightly stretched, and a prudent investor would rightly have a dilemma about whether the high price levels would sustain or will it come falling down in a reverse series of lower circuits.
ATM, I am seeing three kinds of retail investors around me - First one says, add Sanwaria as much as you can, the next short-term target is 50 and long-term target is 100. Second one is a wannabe sitting on the sidelines desperately hoping for a correction to buy into the shares of the Company. Third one is watching this whole episode unfold with a sarcastic grin, talking to himself, saying, “What a bunch of fools! Why would someone invest hard-earned money with Promoters, who compromised their integrity in the past and may as well do it again”. I tried fitting myself into all the three categories exclusively but failed, and since opposites attract, I often feel I am a bit of both the first and the third kind. I am surely not the second type as I cannot assign more than a certain percentage of my portfolio to high-risk bets like Sanwaria. To all confident investors (who often sound over-confident) giving obnoxious targets of 50 and 100, I wish to tell them that I would be just as happy as they would be when Sanwaria hits these targets, but when greed has dominated sentiments all around and when ‘valuations/other considerations’ have gone for a toss, I rather choose to be just a little bit fearful or I would say cautiously optimistic.
Having said that, I must say that the right side of my brain keeps giving me hints that Sanwaria has potential to be a great wealth creator. It has a growing business and the company seems to be in a sweet spot where they can do more right than wrong. But my left side of the brain keeps my emotions in check with a reminder to their corporate governance flip-flops. After all, it took one wrong move to destroy their reputation and it will take a brick-by-brick effort to restore confidence. With this contrasting behavior, I feel Sanwaria has so far been very profitable, but an on-the-edge kinda ride.
I have stocks in my portfolio which are more reassuring in nature, which I have invested in and forgotten for long-term. Sanwaria has given me enough margin of safety to hold on to it till next quarterly results but its surely not a buy and forget kind of stock yet. Also new investors would not have the luxury of cheap valuations now. Hence, keep close scrutiny and keep asking questions till promoter sincerity is proven. Its important to design performance metric around specific parameters to evaluate such stocks. In case of Sanwaria, OPM improvement, product introduction/product mix, debt reduction, working capital management and direct retail expansion/success would be a few key parameters to closely focus upon in coming quarter/s. It is very much possible that the company will deliver on expectations , which will not only keep valuations reasonable, but will also provide me with enough confidence to hold it as a part of my core portfolio for long-term.
Its exciting to drive fast but its more important to drive safe. Be cautious rather than being hopeful. Be confident but guard against being over-confident, because in euphoria the dividing lines become thiner.
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Dear @Nolan,
I share your views and could not elucidate my thoughts more clearly. For me, as a fairly young entrant into the markets, Sanwaria is proving to be an excellent testing ground to discover my own boundaries as an investor. I find myself revisiting my thesis regularly, and wondering whether to lock in profits or to let the magic of compounding continue unabated if the thesis plays out. I am wary of the management team, but also feel that this perception is widely shared and will be discounted into the price until proven otherwise. However which way this plays out, it’s going to be an interesting ride for sure.
Disclosure: Invested @ 7 and currently holding.
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Totally agree with this statement. Keeping a close watch.
Appreciate your views brother. Your analysis of the company is very thorough and helped me to decide whether or not to join the sanwaria bandwagon in the first place. Now that I have already boarded it, will surely keep a close eye and evaluate again after a couple of quarters may be. Looking forward to your upcoming views on the counter. Thanks again for sharing your invaluable perspective with all of us.
Take care !
hi all,
Here i would like to present one view on management.
Few days back if you see management submitted document regarding foreign investors investment in sanwaria and they highlighted ,due to that CMP has been increased. Is it management work to highlight all these things?. what i feel is why they are concentrating on the market price variation and foreign investors entering into sanwia. If their business gives good result to investors , market will pay to the stock its knows fact to everyone.i agree with the any management if they highlight their business activities and responsibility towards investors relationship. My clear point is its not a management work to highlight the increase in current market price.
- are they want to reduce their share holding after increase in market price?.
- are they want to pledge the shares?
- In the process of expansion, will they go for QIP?
many doubt are arising in my mind after seeing their document regarding variation in market price and foreign investors entry to sanwaria. This is only my view. if anything wrong please correct me.
Disc: Not invested and observing the stock since from 45 days.
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I agree that management is going out of way to share info with the intent
to promote share price. There is no doubt about it, At present it appears
to be a pure momentum play with some risk till Q2 financials are out. It is
not a proven management. Let is keep a keen watch. Board meeting is on 14th
Nov.
Disc : Invested yesterday (could not buy earlier due to upper circuit) to
play momentum till Q2 is is released.
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hello yudiagg
could you please tell me where did you find Board meeting is scheduled on 14th NOV…appreciate your reply.
Disc : I hold the stock
With all due respect, please check the BSE/NSE site The Q2 results were out on 4-Oct itself. The stock is hitting UCs because of great Q2 numbers, plus various other positive triggers.
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Please refer to the the Oct 11th and Oct 26th announcements where exchange has sought clarification from the Company regarding sudden increase in stock price and trade volumes. The documents you are referring to are nothing but clarification from the management in response to exchange requirements. They have explained that the company has been re-rated due to change in industry and FPIs have entered which has created more demand for its shares. I do not think they have shared this document voluntarily as you have perceived.
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