Rudra portfolio


(Vivek Gautam) #81

Has CLSA sold Titan in bulk today? How does Havells India,Vijaya Bank, Karnataka Bank, Aditya Birla Nuvo appear to you? Have recently entered into them as trading bet or they are all good for delivery bet.?

Among the core portfolio stocks entered into Canfin homes, amarraja , astral,kajaria,indusind recently. kajaria seems to be consolidating for long


(Rudra Chowdhury) #82

Hi Vivekji,

Don’t know about the particular reason for Titan’s fall, however it is entering a buy zone again.

Not much idea about PSU banks, although asset quality in general remains a major concern there. Aditya Birla is a good business, but valuation wise may not be the best bet.

The core portfolio entries looks strong. Good going :slight_smile:


(Krishna kumar) #83

Titan’s fall could be because the govt is trying to curb gold imports by planning to add more duty.

Also the direct gold import has not taken place this quarter which could have increased their margins by 1%. However Titan CEO is confident that they would be able to tide this issue and get the gold import exemption from RBI to 180 days instead of 90 days.


(Rudra Chowdhury) #84

Added Kajaria.

Will reduce Dishman & CEEBCO post results. Loaded up some because of relative opportunity over short to medium term.


(Raj) #85

Thanks for the clarification Vivek. The comparison with Arshiya to me seems a little odd. anyway…thanks for your views.


(Mallikarjun) #86

Rudra paaji,

Kindly request you to see the portfolio ‘Novice’ in the Forum Portfolio Q&A.

Since its a concentrated one & micro-cap heavy, concerned about it.

It will be of immense help, if you can guide me.

Regards


(Rajarshi) #87

Hi Rudra,

Dishman has been consolidating in price range of 112-120 in the last two months.Results are scheduled on 11 Feb. What are you expectations? Is it good to accumulate at current levels


(Rudra Chowdhury) #88

Dishman is more of a turnaround play and I believe can do well from these levels over the next 12-15 months. It is not a very attractive business and do not have any moat as compared to the other stocks.

As and when the mis-pricing dissolves, it would be prudent to book profits. I am expecting over 50% upsides from CMP of 110 levels.


(Rajarshi) #89

Hi Rudra,

Read in Moneycontrol that promoter Mr Vyas has pledged 2.5 lacs shares to Bajaj Finance.Even though it is .31% of the total share capital is it a sign of things to come?


(Rudra Chowdhury) #90

Been quite inactive over the last quarter. Only one addition to the portfolio : Gruh Finance.

Feels really shaky holding on to my Midcap only portfolio, that too with inadequate diversification I might add.

Stocks %age Holding
Hawkins Cookers 21%
Ajanta Pharma 18%
Unichem Labs 11%
Astral Polytechnik 10%
Mayur Uniquoters 9%
Gruh Finance 8%
Amara Raja Batteries 8%
Kajaria Ceramics 7%
Dishman Pharma 5%
Commercial Engineer 3%

(Hitesh Patel) #91

I think barring dishman, cebbco most of the stocks have managed to hold on quite well in the recent carnage.

Overall I think this pre occupation with small and mid and large cap does not make too sense if u select your stocks wisely and dont overpay.


(Gyan Roy) #92

Overall I think this pre occupation with small and mid and large cap does not make too sense if u select your stocks wisely and dont overpay.

Amply illustrated by a 20% fall in Infosys.


(Siddharth Oberoi) #93
[quote="Prudent_Invest_, post:94, topic:607992338"] > Been quite inactive over the last quarter. Only one addition to the portfolio : Gruh Finance. > > Feels really shaky holding on to my Midcap only portfolio, that too with inadequate diversification I might add. > > 21% > Ajanta Pharma | 18% > Unichem Labs | 11% > Astral Polytechnik | 10% > Mayur Uniquoters | 9% > Gruh Finance | 8% > Amara Raja Batteries | 8% > Kajaria Ceramics | 7% > Dishman Pharma | 5% > Commercial Engineer [/quote]

You seem to be holding pretty overpriced stocks in your portfolio especially your top holding. Why would an overpriced Hawkins be 21% of your portfolio?

Stocks %age Holding
Hawkins Cookers 3%

(Raj) #94

Investing in about the future and not present. Please look at the analysis provided by Rudra in Hawkins thread. If the things pan out the way it is Hawkins at current prices will be called cheap after an year.

Disclaimer: My views are biased as it’s 27% of my portfolio :slight_smile:


(Siddharth Oberoi) #95

Hi Raj,

That’s exactly what it is - your views are biased. Investing is about the future but how much into the future is the right question. In case of Hawkins it seems the whole investing world’s consensus seems to be that of Alice in Wonderland. An utopian outcome where evidence is to the contrary.

In the last 4 years its sales have grown at a CAGR of less than 16%. A similar growth has been reported for the 9 months of FY13. I have gone through your thesis in earlier pages and could notice some serious flaws based on your being highly optimistic. The problem here is that this company has become some sort of a cult. (Charlie Munger described a cult in detail when he referred Harley Davidson). And my big fear is if this company reports two consecutive good quarters then all hell will break loose (on the upside) and a massive bubble could be formed because believers like you will be convinced you were right. And when bubbles are formed, the outcome is pretty ugly.

Anyway it is your money and therefore your call.

:))


(Raj) #96

Siddharth,

I have been holding Hawkins since 4 years and have been accumulating since around 450 levels. I am very satisfied with the stock performance my average cost is quite low.

I agree with you that it may have bubble formation after 2-3 quarters of consistent performance. But who knows “I might be selling when the stock is in bubble zone and waiting for that to happen”.

Let’s wait and see…I am here to take chances for an outsize return. If my thesis goes wrong, I am ready to take a 25% cut and come out in next 12 months or take home a cool 50% upside from here.

“Different opinion make market.”

By the way could you please point me to Chrarlie’s article. It will certainly be a good read.

Regards,

Raj


(Subash Nayak) #97

Add me to the list of over-valued Hawkins skeptics. To me every investment must have margin of safety embedded in it. To buy stock assuming everything will go as planned is suicidal for sure. To me Hawkins doesn’t have such margin of safety cushion at this valuation, and has chance of tanking big way if some unforeseen bad event occur. To me it is a strictly avoid stock.


(Raj) #98

Stock market is a bizarre place. Both buyer and sellers think that they are smarter than the other.

On Hawkins opinion is always on extreme ends. :slight_smile:


(Siddharth Oberoi) #99

I don’t remember when I read it but Munger was addressing shareholders of Wesco Financial Corp. which later merged into Berkshire Hathaway.

** “I happen”. ** ** see…I return. **

“Different opinion make market.”


(manish) #100

The margin of safety in case of hawkins is not high but

honest n ethical mgmt

high div payout - 50%, companies with high div payout and high roce dont sell at low PE. Can you give an example.

high roce

good brand value

after resolution of pollution issue and labour issue an improvement in earnings is expected. whether it happens or not , only time will tell.