Hi Guys,
Thanks for sending in the different perspectives. We have a good enough sample now. I have also polled folks from other successful forums, senior market participants, and friends from the regulatory side of the market.
Here is a summarised consolidated view that is emerging:
1). Mahesh is good, extremely gifted. His research expertise should be put to good use as he has chosen to share with the general public. There are enough admirers of Mahesh in the market (not just at ValuePickr), some who have interacted with him (over email, etc.) from over 6 years. The guy is good. His research is strong. He should be encouraged.
2). A closer examination of the research data and posts made - shows an emphasis on huge amounts of data, and news/events around the company or industry, but negligible emphasis on Valuation. End of the day the Price you get in, is the most important. If you get the Price entry wrong, all your in-depth research is practically useless. On the other hand if you get the entry price right, you do not need much in-depth data. Getting the big picture right is enough!
3). Once the basic data set is in - like say our impartial/neutral Stock Story is in - most of the discussion should be around Valuation. If there is Value, it should scream a Value buy out at us. The danger with too much emphasis on data and news & events is that it drowns the focus on Undervaluation. While senior investors can come to their own conclusions, 90% of any online community as ours cannot. Most of them look to be free-riders on folks they get to trust. If they get in at the wrong price, and do not get warnings for exit, they flirt with disaster - and in ValuePickr itself there has been atleast 3 instances of disaster!!
4). ValuePickr is a small forum with ~3000 registered users today in last 2 years. The pace has accelerated as new folks are joining the effort -and our dream of bringing together amateur investors, senior investors, industry professionals, Institutional Investors - in a collaborative model is taking firm roots. We have also had some decent success, we have some measure of accountability and transparency built-in, there is some TRUST. Beginner Investors have started flocking to the site. From the stats, you can make out that 90-95% are free-riders. **Official ValuePickr Portfolio **was started to bring in the first level of transparency and accountability.
5). We have NOW been advised to bring in higher standards of Transparency & Accountability which will lead to higher Credibility not only of ValuePickr as a community, but lead to higher credibility of its most prolific contributors. Separating the Wheat from the Chaff- should apply to companies/stocks, but just as well to our prolific contributors.
6). Higher Transparency - Ensure Disclosure of positions while initiating, on regular updates and definitely on exits, or atleast immediately after. Moderators are responsible for compliance by following up with prolific contributors.
7). Higher Accountability - Track record of prolific recommenders must be kept updated. Initiation price, price behaviour within 3 months, 6 months, 1 yr, 2yr, exit calls, price behaviour post exit calls.
8). My friends from the Regulatory side say these measures will go a long way in ensuring that the downsides to small investors are minimal, and enhance the reputation of our community if we can start with strictly enforcing these measures.
9). They have also advised us to HELP the Regulators - by putting up profiles of participants, everyonesās photo is uploaded, introductory thread started, and one-on-one face to face group meetings are encouraged.
10). Having put in confidence-building measures, we should ensure passion is not killed. We should find a way -to provide access to complete in-depth data that anyone wants to put up/share with the larger investment community. Referencing Links to a Repository is a good idea, while keeping the focus on Big picture and Valuations, Margin of Safety, etc. in the main discussion flow.
This has served as a good wake-up call for us. Thanks to ValuePickr Admin for being vigilant. Thanks to Mahesh for being sportive. I am sure we can find an effective middle-ground that harnesses your in-depth research strength, at the same time protect downsides to beginner investors. We already have most of the Answers to the solution pieces.
Everyone Please comment. Do you agree that above CONFIDENCE BUILDING measures are good to enforce at this stage of ValuePickrās evolution.
-Donald
I think this debate is not about Relaxo in particularā¦no one can say withcertaintythat this stock is good or bad or can have the authority to give the final judgement. Most of the times its all about the future which no one knowsā¦but can try to visualize.
ā¦ It Seems that these tyre stocks and footwear stocks might see some correction in the short-term if the rubber prices sustain at these levels. However in the long term the story of relaxo remains pretty bullish.