Ptc india ltd

(Hitesh Patel) #1

PTC India has come out with excellent results for q1 fy 15. Revenues have gone up from 2768 crores in q1 fy 14 to 3690 crores in q1 fy 15.

Net profits have gone up from 30 to 43 crores.

FY 14 eps was 8.5 per share.

Attached chart shows a breakout from a long rectangular consolidation and a double bottom formation at 38-39 levels. Breakout from double bottom has been confirmed by stock price breaking above the interim resistance of around 80. After sharp rally the stock price came down to test the earlier resistance levels of 80 and took support and then seems to have resumed its uptrend.

Pattern targets are 120.

comments on chart.

disc: Invested (techno funda bet)

(Raj) #2

FY 14 eps was 8.5 per share.

**This is stand alone EPS. Consolidated is 12.19. Total market cap is around 2600 crores. Also it owns 60% of PTC finance. which mean additional 1440(2400cr. market cap of PTC) crore.

Hence the company which earned a profit of 447 crore(Consolidated) in FY 14 is available at net valuation of 1150 crores.** By the way there are other subsidiaries as well.

It’s standalone number…consolidated will be quite higher. for example add 60% profit of PTC finance.

PS: 5% of portfolio since last 6 months.

(Nikhil Jain) #3


Point & Figure charts are in agreement with your analysis with Bullish support line at 80. A double top has formed recently giving a buy signal.

P.S. Everybody is advised to do their own analysis. I’m still learning point and figure charting analysis.

Disc :- Invested (P&F)

(Hitesh Patel) #4

thanks nikhil for the updates on ptc ltd.

Consolidated picture seems even more intersting. :slight_smile:

I didnt think PTC fin contributed so much to the bottomline. Its a pleasant surprise.

(Ashish Pandey) #5

Hi All,

Anyone has any idea about whether PTC will get impacted by SC’s decision on coal block deallocation. If yes, by how much and when will the impact be felt? I had called investor relations guy Varun Sethi regarding the same. He said they r doing calculations and will get back to investors on this soon. I also checked about whether PTC will further contest the 50 cr penalty imposed by a court on it regarding the non fulfilment of a PPA by a power plant company. He said its an old case and they will contest it too.

Why PTC India is falling, i guess everything is going good. NPM/RoE/RoA are going up, PFS too is doing well, power sector reforms r taking place so why it is falling?

(Sridhar) #6

Curious case of PTC India.

On Standalone basis,

Stock price - 55 in Jan 2005. Netprofit of FY04 = 24 cr

Stock price - 93 in Jan 2015. Net Profit of FY14 = 240 cr

Profits up by 10 times by Price up by < 2 times.

Any reasons for the same?

(Hemant V Bhatia) #7

Call was addressed by Mr. Deepak Amitabh MD. Key highlights by Capital Mkt;

Short term market is volatile as the contracted power could not flow due to Grid constraint. Nearly 60% of the contracted short term power in April-Dec’14 could not flow. This led to a reduction of 15% in short term volume flow to 4373 M Units YoY and overall volume stood at 7773 M units in Dec’14 quarter down by 5.6% YoY.

Management expects the volatility to continue in short term volume trade for next couple of quarters atleast. There is a mismatch between transmission capacities and generation capacity both existing and the new capacities that are coming up. For example in Jaipur and in States of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Transmission lines are not completed due to environmental issues and new generation capacities are already ready. Further due to Grid collapse issues in 2013, Grid are behaving very cautiously and are not ready to load additional power in inter grid connectivity.

As per the management, Utilities health is improving but there is a transition period. Some blocking in short term and in medium term will be seen in FY 2016. So overall, there will be some pressure in overall volumes for the company in next couple of quarter’s atleast.

Of the Rs 250 crore due from TNSEB, Rs 220 crore to be paid by TNSEB in March 2015 quarter as duly decided by the court. Balance Rs 30 crore, parties need to seat and settle it out. There will be some surcharge income, but that has not been finalized.

Demand from Bangladesh has come down during the quarter.

Long term power supply trading margin is not capped by CERC. Realization for long term power is better than short term. The margins hover around 7-8 paise on an annualized basis. So far, 11500 MW long term contracts are tied up

The company has made a provision for Teesta Urja project where in it will have about 6.9% stake post divestment of its some stake to Sikkim Government. The company made a provision of Rs 6.92 crore and an additional provision of Rs 26.69 crore on the balance of its holding, which can be reversed, if things improve from hereon.

(himan02) #8

Hello All,

Is this the active thread for PTC India?

If yes, then can VP moderators/seniors guide or provide expert comments on this stock?
This stock has brilliant fundamentals (around 20% ROCE over last 5 years, almost negligible debt), good growth and too attractive on valuations. PE of 7.5 and PB of around 0.7. Why this stock is kind of neglected both in price and in VP forum?

(himan02) #9

PTC has declared Rs 4 as final dividend for year 2017-18. Effective date yet to be published. On current Market price of Rs 75~76, dividend yield is around 5.2%. This dividend yield is almost similar to post tax FD returns.

discl: invested

(himan02) #11

HSBC Mutual fund has now taken position in PTC. They have acquired 15 lakh shares in month of October. In total, Mutual fund houses have increased their shareholding in PTC.

Sector No. of Funds No. of Shares
18-Oct 18-Sep 18-Aug 18-Jul
Energy 32 4,37,91,894 4,31,61,889 4,32,22,926 4,83,19,701


(Sundeepp) #12

Fidelity has also been buying. Their stake now exceed 8%.