Please see Yes Bank’s thread here. Many experienced and senior boarders have given their thoughts. My bottom line understanding : Nothing wrong with the business model ,some issues with the promoters. If those are sorted out, market concerns would go away.
Let’s hope everything works out as per expectations.
Since your PF is for 2025 - isn’t it too early to change the stocks and allocation … You sold off everything in Dec 2017 and reentered in Sep 2018 and by Nov 2018 you have altered 3 stocks .
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Yup, if some more favorable bets come into the light and if one has limited money , why not ?
There is a reason to bet extensively, yes bank is not in same leage of ICICi and Axis, gross NPA, Net NPA levels are very low, current issues are non issues apart from Rana holding 1400 cr loan in his personal holding. CASA is 36% if total deposit, other banks in range of 40%. 28000 annual interest earning, NII 8000 cr, griss NPA 8500 cr aporiximately. Growth is 54%, until there are severe issues on NPA front, this is great opportunity. Indusind hold 2300 cr loan in IL&FS holdings which is non recoverable, yes bank hold loans in IL&FS SPV which are independent entities. Even moody sited that asset quality is good for yes bank. You dont create wealth by holding 20 stocks in portfolio. Bets are mandatory. Every company goes through this phase, look at Tata motors, so accidents happens, you need to see safty if margin, value of equity. Yes ban below 200 offers great value. Negatives are corporate governance in short terms, doubts on NPA disclosure. Lets see how things unfold.
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As informed on Nov 30th , made few changes in the portfolio. Although this portfolio is meant for 2025, but it is a dynamic portfolio. Churning and shifting as per market movement and replacing low-conviction bets with the stocks where new valuations are better.
Few may not agree with this style , but everyone needs to go with his own aptitude and conviction.
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Made one more small change today. Bought Sirca paints @ 242 and exited Harita.
Is there a rationale for this move? Harita could be a evergreen story, right?
Agree, if I had extra money, would have kept it. But with-in same funds, find Sirca a better bet .
Story of Sun Pharma clearly tells why we should not be married to a stock . Keep an eye on the market, keep changing your thesis as per the latest knowledge.I was lucky to get out of Sun on Nov 30th.
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Got something better , found Sun Pharma as one of my weakest conviction bet so moved out. Just luck, nothing else (may be years of experience too)
I agree each one of us follows different processes in investing . Well I prefer to enter into business after lot of research , I start slowly and build position over one year . For some stocks which I like I build position across multi years …
My holding period is min 3 years . Rarely I have changed my thesis within a month / or even quarter …
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Agree with you. One should develop his own style that suits his/her aptitude .
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Pharma is currently looking like a dumped sector. Much like the PSU stocks or Steel stocks.
The issues of sun pharma which have come to fore makes thing miserable.
I want to know if these issues will have any impact on working of sun pharma. Or if anything still may come out unexpectedly.
Currently sun pharma is doing well, and their USA business will revive after Halol clearance. This site alone should add at least 500 Cr to their bottom line next fiscal. Other business will continue the way it is.
I had seen similar thing when Divis site was rejected by us FDA last year. Now, Divis was a typical case (and may be one of very very few world wide _ rare) where US alert had zero impact on its exports. ZERO. Still the stock was dumped to Rs 650 levels. (And I was a fool to buy just 200 shares). They continued to export and see where the stock is today. And with current situation in Valsartan and Levetiracetam it is in sweet spot currently. May be it will come down in future, but future is unknown.
Similarly Sun Pharma is down due to reasons not related to current status of its business, I dont know if I am missing something here.
I am very bad in investing and I started investing in may june 2018 and am 20% down. So that explains my stock picking (dis)ability. Am not good. Last year I had purchased only Divis and Reliance Ind (@1450 pre bonus, 100 shares only).
But I feel Sun Pharma is a pure buy and accumulate from here on. And so is cadila healthcare. I hold both. Sun @ 500 (had bought in anticipation of halol clearance and cadila h @ 380, their biologicals plany clearance) again small qty 200 and 300.
Am also looking at Panacea which may exit their domestic business along with debt.
My weakness is I buy too many stocks (bot almost 50 scrips all similar amount) between May to Sept then took a break and watching from fence.
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Generally, I seek advice, and I don’t give. But here I think I should.
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Don’t feel negative. 20 %down is mainly because of bad timing. Need not be bad stock selection. And timing is seldom good everytime. You can excuse your self.
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50 stocks is huge. You can have anywhere between 15 to 25. Now is best time to rebalance and should do it quickly.
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Last but not the least, you can post your portfolio, take expert guidance and do it here itself. I might go overboard, but VP is possibly the best investment advisor available free of cost
Sun pharma is interesting case, worth looking into, if I am correct it’s near 5 year low. Its the biggest pharma company in India. Dilip Sanghvi was once richest Indian as well.
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I bought Sun Pharma yesterday and will add if it falls more. In my opinion, issues are over hyped. Except giving big loan to some pharma entity, which they said they can reverse if need be, other issues are non events for me. Had bought Divis when it had crashed and was very surprised by the speed of their resolution. Had bought Cadila too after USFDA issue. It had gone up and then more or less back to the starting price. But I feel it has good potential with new and new ANDA approvals. There are no accounting or receivables issues with Sun Pharma.
WB had said - “If a cop follows you for 500 miles, you’re going to get a ticket.” Similarly if we go and dissect old dealings of any big company now, some issues are bound to show up. As the company kind of alluded to, with stringent corporate governance norms now, these are considered harshly but was standard practice earlier…
disc - invested in all the above stocks
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Cadila has highest approvals and I strongly feel pharma is turning around.
Sun pharma has many complex products lined up for launch. Also, they have not been able to launxh some products and had to forego business due to halol plant issue. That is a non issue now. They will make at least 500 cr net in 19_20 from this site.
Zydus has already launched trastuzumab and bevacizumab in india and these will be later launched in EU_US in another 2 years. More biological products are in pipeline.
Granules is another scrip that will be good bet around 80 (I had earlier bought @ 73 sold @100). I look forward to again but this for 100 % return in 2 years (rs 150).
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Added Max India @ 80.50 in last week.
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Added Gruh @236 .Would add more if price slides down further.
Would update the portfolio performance every 3 months. Last update was on Dec 18 with 17 % gains.
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added IDFC Bank @ 46.40 today.
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