Portfolio for 2025


(RadheyShyam Aggarwal) #154

Story of Sun Pharma clearly tells why we should not be married to a stock . Keep an eye on the market, keep changing your thesis as per the latest knowledge.I was lucky to get out of Sun on Nov 30th.


(RadheyShyam Aggarwal) #156

Got something better , found Sun Pharma as one of my weakest conviction bet so moved out. Just luck, nothing else (may be years of experience too)


(Shailesh) #157

:grinning: I agree each one of us follows different processes in investing . Well I prefer to enter into business after lot of research , I start slowly and build position over one year . For some stocks which I like I build position across multi years …

My holding period is min 3 years . Rarely I have changed my thesis within a month / or even quarter …


(RadheyShyam Aggarwal) #158

Agree with you. One should develop his own style that suits his/her aptitude .


(Karanops) #159

Pharma is currently looking like a dumped sector. Much like the PSU stocks or Steel stocks.

The issues of sun pharma which have come to fore makes thing miserable.

I want to know if these issues will have any impact on working of sun pharma. Or if anything still may come out unexpectedly.

Currently sun pharma is doing well, and their USA business will revive after Halol clearance. This site alone should add at least 500 Cr to their bottom line next fiscal. Other business will continue the way it is.

I had seen similar thing when Divis site was rejected by us FDA last year. Now, Divis was a typical case (and may be one of very very few world wide _ rare) where US alert had zero impact on its exports. ZERO. Still the stock was dumped to Rs 650 levels. (And I was a fool to buy just 200 shares). They continued to export and see where the stock is today. And with current situation in Valsartan and Levetiracetam it is in sweet spot currently. May be it will come down in future, but future is unknown.

Similarly Sun Pharma is down due to reasons not related to current status of its business, I dont know if I am missing something here.

I am very bad in investing and I started investing in may june 2018 and am 20% down. So that explains my stock picking (dis)ability. Am not good. Last year I had purchased only Divis and Reliance Ind (@1450 pre bonus, 100 shares only).

But I feel Sun Pharma is a pure buy and accumulate from here on. And so is cadila healthcare. I hold both. Sun @ 500 (had bought in anticipation of halol clearance and cadila h @ 380, their biologicals plany clearance) again small qty 200 and 300.

Am also looking at Panacea which may exit their domestic business along with debt.
My weakness is I buy too many stocks (bot almost 50 scrips all similar amount) between May to Sept then took a break and watching from fence.


#160

Generally, I seek advice, and I don’t give. But here I think I should.

  1. Don’t feel negative. 20 %down is mainly because of bad timing. Need not be bad stock selection. And timing is seldom good everytime. You can excuse your self.

  2. 50 stocks is huge. You can have anywhere between 15 to 25. Now is best time to rebalance and should do it quickly.

  3. Last but not the least, you can post your portfolio, take expert guidance and do it here itself. I might go overboard, but VP is possibly the best investment advisor available free of cost :grinning:

Sun pharma is interesting case, worth looking into, if I am correct it’s near 5 year low. Its the biggest pharma company in India. Dilip Sanghvi was once richest Indian as well.


(Bhaskar Jain) #161

I bought Sun Pharma yesterday and will add if it falls more. In my opinion, issues are over hyped. Except giving big loan to some pharma entity, which they said they can reverse if need be, other issues are non events for me. Had bought Divis when it had crashed and was very surprised by the speed of their resolution. Had bought Cadila too after USFDA issue. It had gone up and then more or less back to the starting price. But I feel it has good potential with new and new ANDA approvals. There are no accounting or receivables issues with Sun Pharma.

WB had said - “If a cop follows you for 500 miles, you’re going to get a ticket.” Similarly if we go and dissect old dealings of any big company now, some issues are bound to show up. As the company kind of alluded to, with stringent corporate governance norms now, these are considered harshly but was standard practice earlier…

disc - invested in all the above stocks


(Karanops) #162

Cadila has highest approvals and I strongly feel pharma is turning around.

Sun pharma has many complex products lined up for launch. Also, they have not been able to launxh some products and had to forego business due to halol plant issue. That is a non issue now. They will make at least 500 cr net in 19_20 from this site.
Zydus has already launched trastuzumab and bevacizumab in india and these will be later launched in EU_US in another 2 years. More biological products are in pipeline.

Granules is another scrip that will be good bet around 80 (I had earlier bought @ 73 sold @100). I look forward to again but this for 100 % return in 2 years (rs 150).


(RadheyShyam Aggarwal) #163

Added Max India @ 80.50 in last week.


(RadheyShyam Aggarwal) #164

Added Gruh @236 .Would add more if price slides down further.
Would update the portfolio performance every 3 months. Last update was on Dec 18 with 17 % gains.


(RadheyShyam Aggarwal) #165

added IDFC Bank @ 46.40 today.


(AtulD) #166

Can you please help to understand the rationale behind this and why you have selected Max India over Max Financials?

Max India has negative Profit, negative RoE, low Interest Coverage ratio. It has more receivables than Operating Cash and Net Profit. Also, promotors have pledged more than 70% of their shares.

Thanks.


(mylu) #167

Any specific reason getting into IDFC bank?


(RadheyShyam Aggarwal) #168

Please go through this news.
Max Healthcare Sale
Apart from above,am hoping that Mr Analjit Singh would gradually get out of Max Bupa as well as from Antara.
Hope this helps.


(RadheyShyam Aggarwal) #169

Merger with Capital first and Mr. Vaidyanathan as the jockey, expect this would create lot of shareholders value in coming years.


(RadheyShyam Aggarwal) #170

Added more IDFC First Bank @ 47.20. Now 10% of the portfolio.


(RadheyShyam Aggarwal) #171

Luckily 25% holding (of total portfolio) of Godrej Property doing really well.


(RadheyShyam Aggarwal) #172

Saregama – Q3 FY19 -excellent results

Total Revenue at 150.64 Cr
93.74 Cr (46.26%) YoY | 138.42 Cr (8.67%) QoQ

YTD 400.34 Crs vs. 240.24 (66.66%)

Net Profit of 12.28 Cr
1.30 Cr (844.68%) YoY | 14.96 Cr (-17.96%) QoQ

YTD profit 35.83 Crs Vs. 9.06 (295.63%)

EPS (in Rs 7.06
0.74 YoY | 8.58 QoQ

YTD EPS: 20.56 Vs. 5.20

Disc :10% in portfolio


(Zero Point Someone) #173

However there are corporate governance issues with Sun Pharma


(piyush1189) #174

My pick for Next 10 yrs under theme…“growth with value”
AB capital…financial market theme…involved in all facets of financial industry…especially AMC, Insurance, HFC space…could grow at 20%+ for next decade
Adv. enzymes…involved in global enzymes business…huge potential to improve the efficiency of nutritional value chain both human and animal…can grow at 25% easily for next decade
gna axles…40% growth available at peanuts…proxy to automobile industry…can grow at 25% easily for next decade…huge global market…
Kei industries…huge growing player in wiring business…awesome growth for next 10 yrs…can grow at 20% easily for next decade…proxy on housing themes…good management
Sterlite Technologies…data boom player…huge potential…already in 40%+ growth phase…should manage 30%+ for next decade
HDFC AMC…financial theme…should grow at 1.5X AMC industry…SIP would be the next big thin…can grow at 25% easily for next decade…good management…
ICICI pru Life insurance…insurance compounding story…can easily clock 20% + growth for next 2 decades…available at very cheap valuations…PSU to private shift play…LIC to private insurance…huge under penetration.
Edelweiss…financial theme…there ARC business could become huge during this NPA cycle…they are present across the gamut of financial space …currently cheap…can easily grow at 20%+ for next decade
Yes bank…banking theme…available cheap currently…can easily grow at 25%+ for next decade…huge opportunity size…PSU to private shift play…
IGL…Gas theme…huge market …volumes can grow at 10% easily for next decade…less capex required after initial commision…free cash flow generating machine if well managed…can easily grow at 15%+ for next decade…

Any comments???