Thanks a lot Tony for the detailed analysis. To be honest, a bit overwhelming for me to understand this fully as I’m just a beginner. Although I think basically what you’re saying is there are higher chances of upside from current levels.
Will definitely write to you over mail as well for a better understanding of technicals.
Thanks again 
Hi Tony,
I am tracking Astral Polytechnic and could you please let me know your opinion on the same? After Westbridge & Citibank dumping more than 28 lakhs shares, the price has considerably reduced.
As per point and figure chart, it breached double bottom at 360.I see support at 330 & 310). As per candle stick, it has breached 50 day EMA and currently just above 200 day EMA which is 324 and that would be a good support. CCI is in oversold territory around -255 and RSI is moving downwards around 28.34. MACD is treading below the signal line. Please let me know if 340 would be the right price to pick this stock or should I wait till the price goes near to 320 or 310? Please let me know your expert opinion on the same.
Thanks
Subba
Hi Subba,
Astral has given a SELL signal and is in the O column. It violated a very strong support at 370 and now has the next support at 310 and 300. The latter support is very strong once again. Resistance is at 410 to 430 on the charts. Such blips happen constantly in the market which gives a patient investor an opportunity to enter the stock. The question an investor should ask when such events happens is, whether the fundamentals of the stock have changed? If not, then one should not worry about the noises in the market. The stock is strong as it has been trading above the Bullish Support Line for the past one year making Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms.
True it is oversold on CCI and RSI. One should BUY when the CCI cuts the -100 line from below after making a U turn and completing its downward journey.
Tony
Do we have the data for this where we can continuously track Bulllish Percent for Nifty 50 going forward?
How are you able to scan for the stocks in buy signal. Is it done through some software?
BULLISH PER CENT:
stocksand JAN
HIGH | JAN
LOW | FEB
HIGH | FEB
LOW | MAR
HIGH | MAR
LOW
| | | | | |
SENSEX % | 84 | 64 | 60 | 43 | 40
Keerthi,
The Bullish Percent chart is maintained by me manually. There is no software available. maintain using Nifty data, but have shifted to BSE 100 which gives a wider data. It is very time consuming but the fruits of labor are sweet.You can write to me if you need any help on it.
Tony
BULLISH PER CENT:
This concept dates back to 1940s when Earnest Staby noted that the markets were bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom. In 1955 A W Cohen created the NYSE Bullish percent indicator that is bearish at the top and bullish at the bottom.(Contrarian)
It is important to understand how a Bullish percent is calculated. I will explain this with an example too in the Indian context.
On the Point and Figure charts stocks give buy signals. A buy signal has been explained by me earlier. A bullish percent is calculated by dividing the number of stocks on the Point and Figure chart which have given a BUY signal within a particular universe of stocks. So, in the case of Nifty, there are 50 stocksand if the number of stocks which have given a buy signal are 25, then the bullish percent reading will be 50 percent.I use the Sensex 100 as the universe of stocks covered are larger.I am maintaining a data base of the Sensex 100 stocks from January 2013. Earlier I used to keep a data base of Nifty, but changed to get a larger coverage.
According to my analysis on 8th January 2013, 84 stocks out of 100 were on a buy signal, i.e 84 percent. Now compare that to 22nd March, 2013, where only 27 stocks out of 100 are on the buy signal. Reading this analysis and comparing it to the state of the market today, one can note how bearish the markets have become. But this indicator tells us to think the opposite, i.e BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL.
How to use the indicator:
Like what we do for stocks on the Point and Figure charts, the resulting percentage is plotted on a graph from 0 to 100. Each box represents 2 percent. Whenever, the charts show levels above 70 it is time to get ready to SELL, as these levels indicate overbought or high risk levels for further purchases. Similarly when the reading of 30 percent levels and below are reached it indicates oversold levels and low risks for buying.
Today we are at the 27 percent level and hence a good time to enter the stock market and buy selectively, value stocks which are available at cheap or reasonable prices.
If Investors had sold stocks at 84 percent levels in January 2013 and bought at 27 percent levels, imagine the profits one would have made. I did apply this principle, but being a novice did not go the whole hog. I have learned from this mistake immensely and also profited to some extent.
| MONTH | JAN HIGH | JAN LOW | FEB HIGH | FEB LOW | MAR HIGH | MAR LOW |
| SENSEX % | 84 | 64 | 60 | 43 | 40 | 27 |
The above table captures the sensex stocks well. In January, 2013 84% of the stocks were on buy signals at the highest point while the same reduced to only 27% in March, 2013.
Make your own analysis and invest safely. The markets are not out of the woods presently. There is support at 5500 where the Nifty will make a double bottom. Let us wait and see.
Tony
On any given day, how do you find out how many out of 100 stocks are on “Buy” and how many are on “Sell” signal? Wouldn’t checking the charts of all BSE100 stocks individually be too time consuming.
Earlier I used to
Tony,
I have been tracking the Stock Market for past few months only and looking at way Sensex/Nifty keep raising the bar almost every week, i was thinking abt ways to get good entry points into GRUH, Repco, Ajanta and Page and came across your Technical ideas and thoughts.Please suggest your opinion for above set based on Technicals.
Also, its been a while since you published Sector based buy/sell %, would like you to share those.As per trend , i can see everyone being inclined more towards Financial sector based on expectation of interest rate being reduced and investment cycle up-tick
Can you also guide On Candle-Stick chart reading?
On a side note, i really happy with your Technical analysis,patience to respond to each queries and thanks for being a great Mentor/Teacher for all us
-Ashish
Dear Ajit,
It is a back breaking exercise at the moment. I do it twice a week, every Tuesday and Friday. I have to go through the charts of 100 stocks on the BSE and note in a book if they are on a BUY signal and then draw a final conclusion as to how many stocks are on a BUY signal out of 100 stocks.
Tony
Keerthi,
The Bullish Percent chart is maintained by me manually. There is no software available. maintain using Nifty data, but have shifted to BSE 100 which gives a wider data. It is very time consuming but the fruits of labor are sweet.
You can write to me if you need any help on it.
Tony
Ashish,
Thank you for your warm words of praise. I try to do my best and educate all those who wish to learn from me. Anyone is welcome to write to me on my mail at ONLYCASTEL@ YAHOO DOT COM. I cannot put up charts here as the size of the file is big. Anyone wanting it can write to me on my mail.
GRUH (258)
On the Point and Figure the stock is on a BUY signal and in the X column. It made a Double Top at 255. Next resistance is 260 the previous high. Support is at 235-225 and 215.
On the candle sticks, the CCI is in overbought territory at 136 but moving upwards. Chances of further rise in prices are not ruled out. However, the RSI is trending lower. So a mixed signal at the moment. The stock can trade between 208 and 265 as indicated on Bollinger Bands. It is trading above all Simple Moving Averages too. Support is at 244-236 and 211. The Long Term trend is up for the stock.
Tony
REPCO (548)
The stock made a double top at 510 and then touched a new high of 580. Now in the O column. Support is at 510-460 and 410. Resistance is at 580.
On candle sticks, the CCI is at 36 but flattish. RSI is at 54 but sloping downwards. There is not much clarity if the stock will move lower. Support is at 485 and 418. On the Bollinger Band support is at 538 and then 486. Stock can trade between 486 and 590.
The direction will be clear after RBI policy today.
Hi Tony
I stumbled upon PNF last week, following which i discovered this forum thread. I have been doing some reading up, and your detailed insights here have been most helpful.
As my first attempt, I tried applying these to Ashapura Minechem. My observations are below, would appreciate your comments and insights.
On PNF, its in O column, Sell mode. It seems to have turned around sharply today, which will likely put it in X column tomorrow (if it crosses 66), though still in Sell. Resistance at 74 and 86, support at 58,57,56. It will go into buy mode only on crossing 76 (after moving 1 box above the resistance of 74). It violated the bullish support line sometime in July. And after the high of 86 in Sept, it has been forming lower high and lower lows.
On candlestick, RSI climbed out of oversold territory today (from around 15 to 37). So did CCI (from -162 to -78).
However, it is still trading below 50,100,200 day EMAs. In fact, 50 d EMA crossed below 100 D EMA about a week ago. Though over the last 12 months, 200D EMA has acted as a strong support.
Are my observations on charts correct ? Assuming these are correct, what can I interpret ? Can I say that as RSI/CCI have started moving up, one can buy once price climbs over 200D ema ? Or, is the price breaking through the PNF resistance of 74 a better time to buy ? One other valid interpretation also seems to be that the prudent time to consider buying would be when the lower high/lower low pattern is reversed convincingly.
On the other hand, if one was already invested, lets say it fails to build on todays gain, stays in O column and say starts falling to next support level of 58. Would technicals indicate time to exit ?
Thanks in advance,
-Satish
Ajanta Pharma (2454)
Yesterday the stock closed at 2454. On the P & F charts, the stock has resistance at 2500 the previous high. Support is at 2240 and 1800. A good stock making new highs with Higher Tops and Bottoms.
On the candle sticks, the stock can trade between 1850 and 2600. Support is at 2315- 2225- 1945. Both CCI at 95 and RSI at 68 are flattish. A bullish stock supported by good fundamentals.
I have holdings in this stock.
Satish,
I have read your queries and will surely answer each one of them. Just bear with me for some more time. A little busy at the moment but will find time to reply to you.
Thank you for writing. Its a pleasure to see you apply what you are learning.
Tony
Tony bro,Congrats for your Atul Auto.One of the Great multibagger of this year.
Page Industries (10138)
The stock is in a very bullish uptrend. Now in the X column where it will meet resistance at 10300 and 10500 the previous high. Support at 9300 and 9100. The latter is a very strong support on the Point and Figure charts.
On the candle sticks, both the CCI and RSI are at 326 and 71 respectively and in overbought zone. No signs of corrections yet. Supports are at 9985 and 9604-8930 levels.
Tony
Satish,
Your analysis is as good as mine. Kudos. Great job for a first timer. There are a few small things to know.
1). The previous Support becomes a Resistance and vice versa. At 66 the stock had made a triple bottom earlier which was a support from which it fell. When the stock shifts from O column to X column, the Support becomes the Resistance. Hence 66 is a resistance now.
2). The 200 day EMA is a very strong resistance for the stock now. It is always better to enter the stock once it crosses this barrier.
3). Buy stocks with a Bullish pattern which are trading above the Bullish Support Line and making Higher Tops and Bottoms.
4). CCI and RSI are used more for trading purposes. You can get a good entry and exit in a stock. Long term investors can use it to make an entry at the lowest price. But avoid weak stocks. Those who wish to sell can also make use of CCI and RSI.
Tony
Thanks Tony for your technical details on requested Stocks.!!
Is there a way to find out thru technical, if there is any Overall market correction in near term? Nifty PE tells us only to be cautious.I read somewhere earlier Bull run had correction in range of 10-30%
All domestic macros are positive currently and stocks just keeping going up & making new highs
Thanks Tony, I had completely missed the “previous bottom” being new “resistance”. The 200D ema being strong resistance is also much more obvious now.
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Hi Tony,
Have you noticed that there is a difference in the values of some of the technical indicators (like 14d RSI and 20d CCI), between say chartink and moneycontrol/Edelweiss ? Chartink gives lower values than Edelweiss. Given its a well defined mathematical formula, why should there be a difference ? BTW, it looks like chartink is not always updated with splits etc (e.g. Atul auto…)
And given the difference, what should one use as the reliable source going forward ?
-Satish
Dear tony,
Please let me know your advice on rs software based on its technicals. The stock has been on a downward trend for some time now. Where does it have a strong support?
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