Point & Figure Charting

Hi Tony, I need a quick clarification on Igarashi Motors. On point and figure chart, it has formed a pole and it got stuck in upper circuit today. Could you please let me know at what price should I consider selling once this pattern reverses? I referred couple of books and in it its mentioned that if the reversal is 50% then we could consider selling it. Please let me know your opinion on handling such kind of pole formation. Thanks, Subba

Hi Subba,

You seem to be a man in a hurry worried about losing on gains. Today the stock hit the upper circuit on huge volumes which is a good sign. The next circuit will be around 330.

These are extreme situations. However, in Point and Figure we have a 3 box change which applies to any change from the X column to O column and vice versa. Now suppose if the stock opens tomorrow at 300, then we have to wait for the next day as the stock will continue to remain in the X column. In the event it opens at say 275 and then falls to 260 near the closing or during the day, one should exit and sell the stock. This will change the movement of the stock from X column to O column indicating more sellers than buyers. But looking at the volumes I don’t think it will move lower.

Hope I am of help to you. Till then Happy Profits.

Tony

Hi Tony,

Its been a decent amount of time since you are doing Technical analysis and answering each and every question asked here.

Would like to know what’s your estimate of success rate of TA? i.e what %age of your picks moved as you expected & what %age moved in opposite direction?

PS- Looking to start reading book on TA, hence asking what is the maximum success can I expect from it.

Hi Tony,

Hope you r doing good. Avanti and Kaveri have been consolidating at around 1250 &810-830 levels respectively. Avanti still looks cheap and does kaveri considering the results. What would be good entry levels for these counters?

Regards,

Rajarshi

Jatin,

I would not like to blow my own trumpet. However, since you have asked me this question,I must answer it. It is not only Technical Analysis which I follow. For me if the share is not backed by fundamentals, then it does not find a place in my portfolio. So fundamentals is the core. Fundamentals tells you what to BUY. Technicals tells you when to BUY. Whatever the fundamentals, if your entry price is not good, it will give you average profits.

My personal experience has been phenomenal. That is one reason I wanted to share my experience with others including those who follow my thread. My friends and colleagues have given me positive feed back. The same I ask of fellow readers here. I presume that if technical analysis was not beneficial, then I would not have received the response I am receiving here.

The best way to settle this presumption is to ask my readers if they have benefitted from my writings. Please reply generously. Jatin and I await your feed back.

Tony

Tony…Please feel free to ignore this, if you are tied up. Wondering whether a correction will ever show up. I know that market is not that easy to predict and it is all the more tougher to predict an index than an individual stock but when is the often expected, much maligned, correction wave supposed to happen? there was some talk of market sliding to 7400 nifty but it seems to be happening in my dreams rather than real and in the meanwhile, I am sitting on cash unnecessarily, twiddling the fingers and wondering when it will happen…any insights, advice?

Jatin and Tony

In my three years of experience with equities I observed that fundamentals should always be backed with technicals. If someone buys a heap of fundamentally good stock and wait for long for some trigger to happen, it needs a lot of patience; which is not so common. Its prudent to buy stocks with good fundamental, when there is some tailwind attached to it.

When I joined this forum last year, I had 40+ stocks in my portfolio; many of them being stagnant since their purchase. To get the wheat separated from chaff, I took Tonyâs help. Tonyâs insight and his always ready to help hands helped me achieve that. Tony is generous and very eager in sharing his knowledge and I hope when I want to go slightly deeper into TA, Iâll find him beside me.

Irshad

Jatin,

Hi Tony, I will be waiting for some more time on this counter. I understood the point of 3 box reversal very clearly now. Thanks for the elaborate reply. Thanks, Subba

Rajarshi,

Nice to see your query after a long time. I like the focus you have on the stocks you own.

AVANTI FEEDS (1250)

After making a new high of 1280, the stock took a breather and gave a false SELL signal at 1160. It immediately reversed and now is perched at 1250 once again. This shows there is more buying in the stock. Currently it is in the X column and I don’t see reason why it should not retest the new high of 1280 which it will do in a matter of time. Now the new support zone is 1160 from where it reversed earlier. Thereafter the next support lies at 1040.

On the candle sticks the CCI is not showing clear signs of up tick in the stock. The next support is 1130 and 1080. These should be good levels to BUY the stock.

Conclusion: BUY between 1040- 1160.

Tony

KAVERI SEEDS (835)

The stock has been performing very well accept for the dip in the month of May 2014 from where it rose to make new highs.

Currently it is on a BUY signal and very close to its previous high of 860 where it will find some resistance. On the Point and Figure charts the best entry point looks good at 700.

On the candle sticks, 830-790 and 750 look good. The strongest support for the stock will come from the 50 day EMA which is currently at 750. If you see the chart you will notice that earlier at 705 which was the then 50 day EMA , it took support and reversed to make a new high.

Conclusion: 750 to 790 look good levels to reenter the stock once again.

Tony

Tony. Awaiting your response, one way or other. Thx a ton

Kalyan,

You must have noted that I try my best to reply to each and every query. Surely I would not ignore yours.

As to Mr Market, it has a mind of its own. Can never predict what will happen next. The big fall comes when least expected and you are caught napping. In the short run, the markets are unpredictable and that is the reason why one should invest looking to the long term gains.

Looking at the data in the Futures and Options , the markets will trade in the range of 7700 to 8100 till this settlement. On the charts Nifty has support at 7500. It is only after a fall from this level, more fear will enter the market.

My honest suggestion for you is to study the Valuepickr scorecard and study the stocks which are discussed extensively. A lot of effort has gone into it. We must be grateful that we are getting such good fundamental analysis for free. So don’t spend time looking at the market and pray for a correction, but select good stocks for long term investments. When the opportunity arises, grab it with both hands. If you need help on any stocks, please feel free to ask your query.

Tony

Tony…Please feel free to ignore this, if you are tied up. Wondering whether a correction will ever show up. I know that market is not that easy to predict and it is all the more tougher to predict an index than an individual stock but when is the often expected, much maligned, correction wave supposed to happen? there was some talk of market sliding to 7400 nifty but it seems to be happening in my dreams rather than real and in the meanwhile, I am sitting on cash unnecessarily, twiddling the fingers and wondering when it will happen…any insights, advice?

Irshad,

The time to go deeper into Technical Analysis is now. Do not waste time in procrastination. As For my help, I am with you and all who need me. It’s a pleasure to give. It is rightly said " When you learn, teach, when you get, give".

Thank you for your words of praise. Will continue sharing all what I learned.

Tony

Tonyâs help. Tonyâs Iâll

Jatin,

The best way to settle this presumption is to ask my readers if they have benefitted from my writings. Please reply generously. Jatin and I await your feed back.

Tony

Hi Tony,

Can you pls provide levels of Hyderabad Industries Ltd (HIL)?

Tony,

Hats off to your constant work.

Could you please give TA for Sonata Software, Insecticide India,Aurobindo Pharma, Hester Bio?

Hello Tony,

Hope you are well.Thanks a ton for your support.

Plz give your analysis for VST Tillers,Hester Biosciences & Suven Life Science.Thanks

Subir,

Hyderabad Industries closed yesterday at 578. The next resistance on the Point and Figure chart is at 580 and 600. On the support side, watch for levels of 540 and 510.

On the Candle Sticks, the next resistance on the Bollinger Band is at 597 and support at 558. Support is also at 576-546 and 502. The CCI is at 112 and just in the over bought region. It is trending a little on the lower side. Wait for clarity.

Tony

Vivek,

It is my pleasure to be of help to all of you.

Sonata Software (104)

This stock has made a new high after breaking out from 84 where it made a Double top. Now it is in new territory. Support is at 84 and 68 on the Point and Figure charts.

The CCI is at 181 and in overbought territory. Still moving up. The next resistance is at 104 on the Bollinger Band. Support is at 98-85 and 78.

Tony

INSECTICIDE INDIA ( 572)

The stock made a huge move after making a Double Top at 470 on the Point and Figure charts. It made a new high of 620 and currently on a pull back. The stock is in the O column indicating more Sellers than Buyers. The next support is at 470.

On the candle stick charts, the stock has resistance at 614 on the Upper Bollinger Band. Support is at 570-495 and 450. The CCI is trending lower and currently at 107. Chances of more correction in the stock.

Tony

AUROBINDO (828)

On the Point and Figure charts one can see higher tops and higher bottoms for this stock. This indicates bullishness and uptrend in the stock. It made a double top at 740 and broke out to make a new high. Support is at 780-740-660.

On the candle sticks, the stock now has resistance at 842 the upper band of Bollinger Band. Support at 810-760 and 750 levels. CCI is at 140 and in over bought territory but still positive. One can expect higher prices till the trend changes. Over all an excellent stock.

Tony