PNB Housing Fin - Fast Growing HFC


(dprashant) #594

LIC, SBI, Orix to subscribe to Rs 4500 crore IL&FS rights issue https://www.livemint.com/Companies/Y93giAJ3JA4ScqvNZSYNvK/ILFS-crisis-LIC-SBI-Orix-to-subscribe-to-Rs-4500-crore.html


(ORION) #596

Here co. came out with detailed ‘Liquidity Update’ as on 1st Oct.

Seems tobe comfortable…
Disc. Invested 2% of Portfolio.


(Julian) #597

Punjab National Bank to turn profitable in FY’19; Nirav Modi scam a bygone: Sunil Mehta

Perhaps PNB wouldn’t be pressurised to do the stake sale of PNB housing at throwaway prices.


(dprashant) #598

Or Perhaps they Are factoring in the stack sale gains while making the statement ,as bids are already submitted.
Let’s see how things shapes up


(mrai74) #599

We are aware that only Blackstone made all-cash offer for PNB Housing Finance but not sure if deal value is finalised … main concern is sharp decline in market cap & I am suspicious about stake sale process getting through.


(Julian) #600

(Julian) #601

While the best of banks have a 45% cost to income the NBFC works on a cost to income of 15%. What matters is the RoA and RoE. Most of the frontline NBFCs beat the banks in the RoA and RoE that they generate. If it were not so HDFC would have merged with HDFC Bank long time back.
When the marginal players get killed it gets easier for the leaders to take up market share. ALM mismatch for a company is not a default program it’s a matter of choice. Yesterday one HFC raised US$200 mn through ECB and threw the ALM mismatch whatever it was - out of the window. Basant Maheswari


(bimalb) #603

Disc - No Position.


(mrai74) #604

& the news follows… The deal is OFF


(dprashant) #605

the article says
"Carlyle said it has no comments to offer, while PNB said it has not dropped any plan to sell stake in the entity and the process for the same is on. "

its anybody’s guess ?


(Julian) #606

This is very good news as far as I am concerned. The company was being extremely well managed under Carlyle PNB group. PNB housing will continue to keep the PNB brand and now there is no scare of it being sold to a competitor. Desparate bidders can still approach the group any time in the future in case they are interested and PNB Carlyle group will only be happy to offload their interest. With PNB continuing to be on board we can be assured that good corporate governance practices will continue in future too. Unlike canfin, PNB Housing has an extremely capable hand leading from the front. I have made several posts earlier on why it is unwise for PNB of sell their stake in PNB Housing. The timing of the stake sale was targeted to perfection but the fates willed otherwise. With an ROE of 19 being targetted next year, a stake sale could have a better response next year as bidders like Bandhan and HDFC give priority to this number.


(Julian) #608

Interview of Sunil Mehta, MD of Punjab National Bank on PNB housing stake sale (First 6 minutes) with Ruchi Bhatia of ET now published 2 days back. It seems that the stake sale could be delayed, but expected to be completed this fiscal itself.


(onlish2014) #609

Perhaps one silly question but I would go ahead and ask anyways: if 1-2 of the potential bidders for PNB HF have genuine interest in acquiring stake @1200 levels, why would they not take advantage of current rout and acquire sizeable chunks from market?
Obviously this will not get them the target size, but 2-4% could easily be built?


(mrai74) #610

Its not silly question. There is no reason to pay more when you have another option to buy cheaper. I have seen recent interviews of Sunil Mehta, PNB MD quoting that stake sale process is still ON. I take it as formal official version as being head of organisation, he can’t term the process closed till they have internally discussed and based on received bids / responses, the team accepts the decision by majority.

He is just trying to say his version but from bidders point of view… the market cap & current price matters a lot. There is no reason to spend more on higher price when its available at cheaper rates now, although delivery volume in recent weeks don’t show any such behaviour.

Overall we have to wait … keeping fingers crossed but most likely stake sale is in bad shape due to September mayhem.


#611

Indian market is unique. Any news of creeping acquisition of shares will spread like wildfire and will lift the prices. Why would any acquirer jack up its own eventual cost of acquisition? Most of sellers suffer from price anchoring bias so allowing it to go up is counter productive.


(Julian) #612

My goodness! That’s a great idea. Buy the stock cheap in the open market, keep it below 25% so as not to trigger open offer, buy 51% from pnb- Carlyle and then sell 25% to yourself in open offer.

Or get your friends to corner 49% from open market, and then buy it back in open offer, so that SEBIs open offer clause can be fulfilled in letter though not in spirit. Has anybody tried it?


(dprashant) #613

PNB plans to sell non-core assets worth ₹8,600 crore https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/money-and-banking/pnb-plans-to-sell-non-core-assets-worth-8600-crore/article25229502.ece?utm_campaign=amp_article_share&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=whatsapp.com


(Ashwin H) #614

Possibly a hit and run by some Rating analyst :slight_smile:


(sanketkulkarni1987) #615

Does pnb housing have exposure to super tech loans ?


(Julian) #616

Supertech MD has informed that there is no default and they are still servicing the loans of Indiabulls housing and all other financiers. Indiabulls housing has also said likewise. It all seems to be the play of operators. They even succeeded in :fox_face: investors to sell below IPO price, taking advantage of the fact that PNB housing has put Supertech in their approved list. In the short run the stock market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine. Even if in the short run, market goes wrong in valuations, in the long run it gives the right valuation.

PNB housing will be coming out with the results in November 5 and no doubt it will be atleast 1.75 times market growth, as it has been ever since Sanjaya Gupta took over 8 years back. It will be good to listen what this veteran has to say about the crisis. So far in all the concalls, all the questions from all the analysts on any subject of any complexity, were all single handedly answered by the MD himself, even though his team is present, showing his complete and total mastery of the subject. Even where he refused to divulge some figures, he has always mentioned that the figures were readily available with him.

Whatever be the genius in charge of PNB housing, investors with concentrated holdings, keep their fingers crossed.