Piramal Enterprises Ltd


(novice2014) #1246

Just curious…Raising long term debt when interest rates are supposed to be downtrending…

Must be mouthwatering opportunity to invest…


(vignesh) #1247

Edelweiss , Manappuram etc raised at around 10.5 . So relatively its less :slight_smile:


(shenbal) #1248

From where did you get the feeling interest rate is down-trending ??? RBI has hiked the rate and Interest rate will go up as Inflation gets under control. See the trend of Interest rates … increasing since June 2018 …
image


(novice2014) #1249

Hi,

In my opinion, RBI repo cut should be in the offing, when thats the only question !

And, even FED is going to find it hard to raise rates much from here on…

The chart depicts trend til today, but i am talking about future.

Lets see. I do reserve a right to be wrong !


(Divyanshu Bagga) #1250

(Mahendra243) #1251

Revenue:
Up 22% at INR 3,489 Crores during Q3 FY2019 vs INR 2,858 Crores in Q3 FY2018
Up 25% at INR 9,536 Crores during 9M FY2019 Vs INR 7,648 Crores in 9M FY2018
• Net Profit:
Net profit up 23% to INR 603 Crores in Q3 FY2019 vs. INR 490 Crores in Q3 FY2018
Normalised Net profit1 up 25% at INR 1,466 Crores during 9M FY2019 vs INR 1,176 Crores in 9M FY2018
• Cash Profit:
Up 32% to INR 843 Crores in Q3 FY2019 vs. INR 638 Crores in Q3 FY2018
Up 30% to INR 1,939 Crores in 9M FY2019 vs. INR 1,486 Crores in 9M FY2018
• For the nine months period, the Company has delivered a 4 year Revenue CAGR of 26% and 4 year
normalised net profits CAGR of 46%.
• The Company has been delivering 20%+ growth in Revenues and Net Profit, consistently over past 14 Quarters.


(Mahendra243) #1252

Nice live updates from conf call from one twitter user


(Marathondreams) #1253

(divyansh ) #1254

finally some light at the end of tunnel for the real estate industry. my personal take is that the measures are good from supply side point of view. the real estate industry and the cycle itself is like a giant elephant. it will not move quickly and race away but take good amount of time to revive. the above should defn help. but still one should play this in a proxy way ie tiles fittings hfc/nbfc.
disc: invstd in piramal


(Shailesh) #1255

Interesting point raised by Mr Raoji : alphaideas

NO TO YES

34%20PM


(phreak) #1256

Looks Piramal was about to fall into the IL&FS trap in 2015 but LIC saved them. This makes me wonder about the sort of due diligence PEL may have done in their other investments.


(vignesh) #1257

Ajay Piramal Clearly in one of the interview said they are not comfortable with ILFS and they did go through the deal. This is a old news.


(CP) #1258

Can I assume that there aren’t obvious/apparent landmines that I need to worry about and that aren’t fully priced into PEL at this point in time?

Disc: Small investment. Interested and hoping to add more at a better price point.


(ashishkaushal) #1259

It is the other way round. It is because of due-diligence that the transaction did not go through. Several CEOs will find it very difficult to walk away from an announced transaction - they take it personally and get emotionally involved.


(KunalKothari) #1260

You would wonder the same if you had invested in one of their REIT funds launched around 5 years back, lots of projects lent to are stuck with no clear exit. We will see if they have enough safeguards to protect themselves when things go wrong.


#1261

Good storified version of what is going wrong in the real estate sector. Piramal is neck deep in this issue along with may be JM Fin and others like Edelweiss (not mentioned in the article).

Disc: No holding


(Marathondreams) #1262

I don’t find anything new in this report. They have just collated all the information available in various public forums and generalized it by painting everybody with the same brush, based mainly on an old Ambit report. We all know how many of Ambit’s prognosis and forecasts turn out to be true in last 5 years. They were proverbial “bears” and were making doomsday forecasts for long…So I wouldn’t be too much worried about that.

There is no second opinion that real estate sector is in deep trouble but that’s what Mr. Piramal has been saying on many concalls and TV interviews. Company was forthright in explaining their exposure and current status for each of the project/developer on each concalls. Hence as a investor, I am ready to take a bet with them.

Disc - Piramal forms major part of my portfolio so my views could be biased. This is not buy or sell recommendation.


(Rohit Chauhan) #1263

Commerical real estate and Residential real estate needs to be separated to make the analysis more representative. Rental cover repayment schedule in commercial, where as sales driven cash flow cover the repayment schedule for residential
also EBDITA coverage for repayment for residential real estate is incorrect. Repayment happens from sale of inventory and EBDITA should cover interest payment at a minimum.
That said, the stress in the sector is true, but the analysis does not cover some of the nuances.


#1264

Agree, most of the stress is in the residential segment. I am experiencing very aggressive/desperate sales pitch from even quality builders in Mumbai. With the launch of upcoming Blackstone REiT, commercial RE sector will have a solid fall back options in case of any big liquidity crisis. Residential guys will have big trouble in their hands even after GST relaxation. I also feel there is some oversupply building in so called affordable housing segment. Tax relief is pushing them to launch thousands of tiny apartments in a small land area but will they find so many buyers 2-3 yrs down the line?


(Rohit Chauhan) #1265

agree, stress is in the residential segment. The problem with such reports is that they are at country level and as we all know, real estate is local to the extent of micro markets.
MMR and NCR are the problem markets, but even there we have micro markets which are doing well. On top of that even within micro markets need to looked at terms of the price segment.
So in reality one cannot aggregate data at country level and draw meaningful conclusions. Knight frank and JLL reports do a good job of analysing each micro market every 6 months and one should read that to get a better view of it.
There is no question there is stress in the sector, but most of these articles form a view point and then use data to support it. Reality is ofcourse far more nuanced than that and one needs to break down the data to understand it better.
Interestingly commerical is doing quite well across various markets with vacancies dropping even in MMR and NCR regions