PC Jewellers

(LTInvestor) #264

@atul1082 What I was trying to do is to compare with best of class to see divergence because what is everyones mind is if the financials are real or fake. So,

  1. The sales growth stands out. While Titan grew only by 25%, PCJ grew by 100% in a lacklustre environment. There could be false invoicing to launder money. Show cash sales but no real transfer of goods. So the gift was a payment to settle dues. But no real effect on the company. Company got cash and promoters settled with own money. Doubt this happened. No Indian promoter is this generous.

  2. The OCF/Net income in simplest terms shows how much of profit is cash. If everything is in cash and just in time, then difference will be D&A + interest. Here PCJ numbers are lower, but they are expanding stores and sales. Assuming sales are not fake, they will need more inventory, give out more credit which will utilise working capital. If Titan grew by 100%, think their numbers will also come out similar. The stores can be fake but in Delhi they show stores at South Ex, Karol Bagh, Rajouri Garden. These are very upmarket locations.

Again the market knows something we don’t; maybe their international business in Dubai has LOU as per rumour.

So this is really at 36K feet level. My exposure is limited so for now this is good enough to take a small call. Please do self due-diligence before purchasing.

(suraj jethwani) #268

This YouTube Video gives and Idea what officially is being said about the promoter Stake being Gifted to some person in the Family. Very important to note that there are NO details provided on who received these shares.

(R.Vivek) #269

I make a simple calculation, though not 100% right, to value a company.

Discount the current EPS with Risk-free rate i.e., G-Sec Yield , ignoring Growth rate, dividend growth , cash flow, Free cash flow , RoE , ROCE …

using the same to Value PCJ & Vakrangee…

PCJ EPS = 10.32 , Share Value : 10.32 / 7.75 * 100 = 133.15
Vakrangee EPS = 6.45, Share Value : 6.45 / 7.75 * 100 = 83.20

I feel both the stocks shot up and were running ahead of its fundamentals. Might be Pump & dump case.

(Satish Earthling) #270

Titan EPS is same as pcj .

(suraj jethwani) #271

The Video Link below has got some very interesting Insights on what could be taking place in this stock, IMHO Something very Fishy is going on here…
L.T Investors should stay away.

This also includes a short discussion with Balram garg towards the later part.

(R.Vivek) #272

yes…Titan’s Graham number 119 and as per my method its 143.
I strongly feel its over expensive.

(Pankaj181) #273

PCJ in F&) banned list. lets see what happens tomorrow.

(Pankaj181) #274

Ohh God in a interview to Bloomberg he told the person to whom shares were Gifted he is not an Family member. & now he is talking opposite.

Mera trust uthh gaya hai Market se.

Also seeing the Tone of this Anchor I feel this Panic was created delibrately cozzz might be someone bought Put options .

(Rohit) #275

earlier I burnt my fingers in EROS , Tree House and Shree Ganesh Jwellary and Now its PCJ.
Indian market is full of fraud companies.

(Alok Bhola) #276

Every market has all kinds of Companies (even developed markets such as USA has it’s fair share of fraud Companies).

I hope your experience has taught you the type of Companies to avoid in future.

(Rohit) #277

Yes , I am learning regularly , their are good companies also which has compensated for my losses in long term. However as per behavioral finance , one who loses $100 will lose more satisfaction than gaining satisfaction from a $100 profit. I am going through same phase :frowning:

Investing is not a easy thing , No matter how much we try to avoid bad companies , their is no full proof method to completely eliminate them. What were looking as multi baggers few months back have now turned into losses. (e.g PCJ (holding since ipo) , Vakrangee etc , luckily I sold Vakrangee before sell off). and irony is we start analyzing corporate governance issues only once the stock price crashes, before that everything looks good.

(LTInvestor) #278

Easier said than practised. The comparison to the West is wrong because of our remedy process. Agreed there are frauds in the West, but the remedies are quick and investors know what really happened. Can anyone tell investors even after 10 years from now what really happened here? No, because there is no due remedy process.

Think one of the most important lesson in India is that do not hold mid-caps beyond a certain PE threshold. Goes above a decent PE sell and invest in a broad MF. Not worth holding in lust of millions.

I hold Cera since about Rs. 2100 and of late have been think, what is to say there is no fraud in there. They sell to real estate (the dirtiest business) and they trade at 45x. Even if a whiff comes out I will lose 3/4ths of my money.

(Rohit) #279

One query I have , recently they hired Akshay kumar and twinkle for advt and it has also got a good response (atleast I liked the advt) , also as per thier disclosure they have opened 9 new showrooms in last 2 months.

So is this all a hoax ? if thier is something wrong in the company why they are spending on advt and hiring Film stars ? or opening new showrooms ? Is it just to paint a rosy picture in front of market fraternity or market has too over reacted. I am still not able to understand if thier is something seriously wrong or these is just over reaction in market due to gifting of shares.

(rajeevns) #280

I understand what an investor will go through during this phase of massive selling without clarity on what really happened and we are glued to news and forums to see if there is any new piece of information that gives us more clarity on what really happened(apart from Vakrange buying/selling, promoter gifting shares). I have 3% of my PF in PC Jewelers and decided to hold till Q4 results are out.


(Rohit) #281

Yes , I was thinking on the same lines. Trying to recover some losses by doing some short selling. Lets wait till Q4 results. Hope their is no more surprises and should be on expected lines. Stock already touched 120 and trading around 8-9 PE currently.

(LTInvestor) #282

What is still confusing me is who is selling?

Apart from the DII + FII + promoters, Others (retail + corporate) own 3.4cr shares. Since 25th April, 4.01cr shares have been delivered + plus maybe 1cr of today. This means that all retail investors have turned around their shares more than once now. IF the biggies had sold, we would have known.

I know this forum is not to spread rumours, but if I may. Looks like Vakrangee still have their shares of 20L at Rs. 516 and their is a cartel to trap them. If they have not sold till now, it is worth now 24crs. Loss of 80crs.

(Varun) #283

kindly check Gitanjali Gems. They hired most well-known film stars, spent on advertisements of most of its brands… Spending money on advertising or hiring film stars does not always mean that the business is doing good.

Disc: Not invested

(Rohit) #284

Yeah I agree with you but they have recently done this. Gitanjali was doing this since long time (they have hired Aishwarya , Kareena , Priyanka , deepkia and many more in last 8-10 years). But PCJ did this first time.

I mean to say if they knew that they have to made an exit (by gifting of shares) and their is some hidden problem. Why they will spend more on advt now and open 9 new showrooms as well. I don’t know what I am saying make sense or not but this is what confusing me.

(srikanthg) #285

Gitanjali used to advertise too aggressively in magazines especially in Filmfare. Just spending on adds doesn’t mean business is good, and is going to expand topline.
Moreover any add spends goes to the companies balancesheet not from promotors pocket.
I haven’t seen such aggressive marketing spend in Titan

(Varun) #286

Your question is your answer. If I will want to exit, I will advertise more, show more growth (profitable or not) to extract more value. Growth as a number should not be trusted at the face value.