Request you to go through top 100 high PE stocks of 6 years back, Sir. I missed many due to high PE as an elimination criteria.
What gives confidence on the future of the business is this interview by the promoter Genomal. When asked by Lata in an interview in Sept 2017 whether the company can grow at 20% for the next twenty years, Genomal replied âEASILYâ. That said it all.
They have grown by around 40% this year. One should be satisfied if they grow by even 20% each year for the next 10 years.
The problem with high priced, high growth, market leaders with fantastic return ratios is that you can only be a seller of the stock (thinking that the PE is too much now, so lets sell !!). Very difficult to buy such stocks. Unfortunately, as a seller, one will only regret the decision as growth continues and the stock continues to move higher and higher !!!
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Interesting reading on Page Industries in the link below âŚeven I fell to the theory that P/E of Page has gone too high and sold some around at Rs 14,000. Just forgot my lessons from Philip Fisherâs âCommon Stocks and Uncommon ProfitsââŚthis book is a MUST, MUST read for those who want to make serious long term money âŚ
Especially Chapter 8 Point 4 (âDonât assume that the high price at which a stock may be selling in relation to earnings is necessarily an indication that further growth in those earnings has largely been already discounted in the priceâ) (Page 130 in my book)
And Chapter 6 on âWhen to Sellâ (especially Pages 110 to 113 of the chapter in my book)
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The price equity ratio is too high and does not encourage me to buy. However, profit growth from here also is going to be in excess of 20%.
Discl. : Sold, not regretting but tough to buy again.
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Yatharth, you are right. It is very tough to buy it back now. You will always wonder why buy a stock at such a PE and not a lower PE stock.
I also feel Page is likely to grow above 20% p.a. but I will be happy if on an average, the stock returns 15%-20%. P/E ratio will then slide downwards.
It always seems tough to buy these type of stocks due to v high PE they trade at. I am tracking this stock since 2000 rs but its always seemed to be trading at high multipled. Finally I bought at 15000 rs 2-3 years back , taking some risk. I still feels its expensive and not getting courage to buy. I think to invest in such stocks , one needs to buy on every 10-20% correction irrespective of PE. If we will look on PE , it will always looks expensive
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https://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=a6a640e0-b820-4fe2-8e6e-555e6d0785e4
Jockey agreement extended till 2040.
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Page Industries AR 18
⢠New product launches
⢠Extending its foray in the Kids Category, Jockey launched a line of innerwear for Girls in January 2018.
⢠With a view to strengthen its ground in the Outerwear Category, Jockey launched a new ATHLEISURE range for Men and Women
⢠Sales stand at 2552 cr vs 2130 cr last year( 20 % growth)
⢠EBITDA = 562.1 cr vs 437.6 cr last year( 28 % growth)
⢠PBT = 517.5 cr vs 394.8 cr( 31 % growth)
⢠PAT = 347 cr vs 266.3 cr ( 30 % growth)
⢠RoNW = 41%
⢠RoCE= 58%
⢠Total dividend = 146.1 cr ( dividend payout = 42%)
⢠Brand building
⢠During the year 2017-18, the Company through its authorised franchisees opened 119 EBOs including 9 âJockey Womanâ EBOs catering exclusively to our women customers, taking the total number of EBOs to 470.
⢠7 EBOs outside India ( 5 UAE + 2 Sri Lanka) in nascent stage might grow in future
⢠The Speedo brand has achieved a turnover of 428 million in the financial year 2017-18 as against previous year sales of 364 million, which is an increase of 17.58%.
⢠As on 31st March 2018, Speedo brand is available in 1292 stores including 28 EBOâs and 68 Large Format Stores spread across 115 cities.
⢠Expansion & New Investments
⢠During the period under review, we have expanded installed capacity across various units spread over 2.40 million sqft in 14 locations in the state of Karnataka.
⢠Promoter holding constant at 41.9 %
⢠It is also projected that China and India will be the fastest growing apparel markets, both growing in double digits.
⢠China will become the biggest apparel market adding more than US$ 288 billion in market size by 2025, whereas India will be the second most attractive apparel market adding US$ 97 billion by 2025.
⢠The current domestic textile and apparel market is estimated at US$ 85 billion (2016), with apparel having ~75% share
⢠The domestic T&A market is expected to grow at 11% CAGR to reach US$ 220 billion by 2025. Technical textiles is a promising segment, which is expected to grow at a higher rate of 12% CAGR, while apparel & home textiles would grow at around 11% CAGR in this period.
⢠Indian fashion retail market currently estimated to be worth 2,97,091 crores (US$ 46 billion), is envisaged to grow at a promising CAGR of 9.7 percent to reach 7,48,398 crores (US$ 115 billion) by 2026.
⢠The innerwear category, currently estimated to be worth 25,034 crores, accounts for 8 percent of the total apparel market in 2016 and is expected to grow at CAGR of 12 percent over next five years and reach 80,117 crores by 2026.
⢠he market size of menâs t-shirts in 2016 was 8,527 crores and is estimated to grow at CAGR of 12 percent to reach 26,484 crores by 2026 and for women the market size for t-shirts was 933 crores in 2016 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 17 percent to reach 4,484 crores by 2026.
⢠Innerwear shifting from price sensitive to brand sensitive.
⢠Per capita consumption in India much lesser than peers like China & Thailand- hence huge scope to grow.
⢠Capital work in progress of 58 cr .
⢠Addition to investment of 218 cr.
â˘
Overall the AR 18 does not provide much additional insights as the business ,market conditions are well know and the company is doing well year on year.
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The promoters and directors did not sell a single share in 2017 but in 2018 they have sold a truck load of shares up until 27th July. Not linking to anything but what do seniors in the forum think of this.
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what is the source of this information? as per bse filing there is no change in promoter shareholding.
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Its on BSE website. Check for 2017 calendar year and there will be no transactions made by the promoters but for 2018 there are many. Hope I am interpreting it correctly.
https://www.bseindia.com/corporates/Insider_Trading_new.aspx?expandable=2
From where are getting page industries promoter sold .your attached link have no connection with page. Their promoter holding is constant at 49.01 percent from Dec 2016 till date if I recall correctly.Pl check latest shareholder discloser for clarity.
On the same link if you put the scrip name as Page Industries it will populate the data of promoter sale and the dates show share sell off in 2016 and 2018 but nothing in 2017. Anyway, I think I may be thinking too much for nothing.
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Its true that promoters have sold 41402 shares worth 118.6 Cr in last 3 weeks. It has been a normal practice for promoters to offload when they see a big jump. Going with history, I presume that scrip is going to stabilize for some time around 30K. The transaction happened between 11th July & 27th July, we are not sure if it will still continue in current week as well
Nari Genomal - 13744
Ramesh Genomal - 13658
Sunder Genomal - 14000
SEBI_PIT300718.xlsx (17.0 KB)
yes i got it and it seems they have sold in small lots in july and thats why its not reflected in june shareholding . Thanks for pointing it out.
Whatâs the general consensus of the forum members/shareholders about where the business is headed. The 1Q results are due August 9th any expert thoughts from seniors holding this stock and what to expect ?
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@mrai74 - Looking at the 3 year sales growth of 18-20%; do you think the general sense in the market is that this growth will continue to be around the same range and that is why the stock will continue to be in this 28K-30K zone for sometime to come ?
normally 1st qtr is the best qrt and i am expecting an eps in the range or 100-105 for this qtr. lets see
Page crosses Rs 30,000 per share todayâŚwow, what a journeyâŚ
It remains a part of my favorite4 stocks, others being Gruh, HDFC Bank and Asian Paints (I feel each portfolio must have SOME allocation to these stocks for multi-year hold).
Which PMS advisor will tell you to buy such stocks and hold them for years. If they do, how will they earn their living. They will invariably tell you that stocks are not forever, that one must look at new ideas regularly. They will defame Buffet about his long term hold strategy, even quote IT stocks like Infy and Wipro to tell you why buy and hold strategies do not work (what they wonât tell you is that these companies are today struggling to grow even at single teens and their best years are behind them; and how much wealth they created when they were growing fast).
These predictable, fast growers & very well managed market leadership companies (favorite4), even when bought at extreme valuations, have given good returns. Someone who bought these stocks at the HIGHEST prices at the height of the 2008 boom and just before the bust made the following returns.
Page Rs 480 (todayâs price Rs 29,950) 62x
HDFC Bank Rs 365 (todayâs price Rs 2158) 6x
Asian Paints Rs 118 (todayâs price Rs 1437) 12x
Gruh Rs 11 (todayâs price Rs 326) 30x
While looking at the returns, donât forget to keep in mind that they have given this fantastic return even when bought at the HEIGHT of the 2008 boom. And I am not adding the cumulative dividends given by these stocks in the last 10 years. Plus the added advantage that you can allocate a reasonably high proportion to these stocks (unlike a new, untested mid cap idea).
Page was always an expensive stock and debates will continue about how money can be made at these valuation levels (similar debate at regular intervals but Page has continued relentlessly on its upward journey).
The favorite4 are not 6 month/one year stocks but multi year stocks and they will seriously test your patience. Most investors wont survive the long journey and will give up mid way and move on to some new idea. For those interested in the favorite4, this volatile election year should provide good entry prices into these stocks.
As Paul Samuelson has said: Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas
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Great post @Multiplier777 ! Simple things are the toughest to do always. People forget quality options when searching for multi-baggers