I mulled…re-read the entire VPr thread…went through every available news item…did all the math…consulted…mulled again…finally chided myself on why I didn’t act earlier…While I neither require this capital nor I have a comparable alternative stock, its a fact that I might be acting too late and there might be hardly anymore downside left…all said and done, I pulled the trigger y’day…significantly reduced…my reasoning - with lack of growth in the same % as in the past (25-30%), any further PE re-rating may not be easy…Not that Mr.Market will act the opposite of my reasoning. Has happened countless times before but at 17-18% growth as in this quarter, a PE like the current one may not be sustainable was my only reasoning. For all you know, I might get egg on my face, with the management suddenly going against grain and pulling off some stupendous numbers in Q3. I still like the business and its scalable nature but I move on. May revisit, if it falls to sustainable valuation
Any idea on the analyst meet for this quarter, unable to find anything around it on the net ?
It is trading @40x FY17 assuming 30% growth but 10k (30-35x) would be ideal price to enter if someone trusts the story. I clearly missed selling at 16k and now it is too early to buy. It seems even Samir Arora is short on this given his comments on Diwali day. Hawkins at no growth, Jubilant at very low growth can trade at huge valuations this can clearly sustain 30-35x forward PE.
I agree on Samir’s comment, though he didn’t name but looks likely as he was always skeptical of Page’s valuation… I have a MOSL report(2 month ago) which says that Q2 wouldn’t be good for Page… but expects normalcy to return by 3Q16 as it has taken corrective measures based on their discussion with the management.
I don’t think 30% growth is a realistic assumption with this soft consumer demand.
I doubt the logic of better quarter due to festive season… Page in such a business where festivals don’t play a role at all, still I have better expectations… Other income & tax issues may settle down and this will show a different picture in next quarter
Disc : Invested so views may be biased
A good latest report on Page by Motilal Oswal - “Getting into the big league” http://motilaloswal.com/Research-Research-actual.aspx?Search=14555
They label it is a long term compounder with 22% CAGR over next 8 years. I am pretty happy with that kind of returns for a core position in my portfolio. Of course if one thinks he can do better than that, then he should sell Page. Maybe at 16000 it was a partial sell, but not at current price. Any more dips will only make it more attractive.
Lot of FMCG names are at 40-50 PE with 15% kind of growth. So I dont see why Page should not get slightly more valuation for 20-25% kind of growth. Remember these business are valued highly because they offer long term secular predictability. How many brands have the “Aspirational but yet afforable” positioning?
Royal Enfield 
with a potential to sell all over the world, not just in India, Dubai & Sri lanka.
Totally agree with that. Have been with Page for reasonably long time. Had missed the Eicher ride, have boarded it recently in its pit stop - hoping “Intelligent Fanatic” Siddharth Lal will ensure it will be an enjoyable ride 
Being a value investor, I have not ventured into buying Growth stocks in the past 4-6 years. Whenever I have bought Growth stocks at fair or high valuations, have received not so optimum returns and have moved back to value investing.
MOST is good at researching into growth stocks, and do give recommendations at high valuations but some of those in the past have proven quite not so good. Some of the highly valued stocks in IT such as TechM, HCL Tech have corrected once their growth suddenly drops from above normal to below normal, so one has to be very cautious if you are paying for PE of 50 and above.
My assessment is that, competition is increasing in all sectors and some of the decent 30%-35% growth stories are seen suffering today with modest 20-25% growth and have not sustained high 50+ PE valuations for long time. It looks tough that, 35% growth will be sustained by PAGE for next 8-10 years to justify such high valuations. Being a cautious investor, I may sound pessimistic, but Mr. Market sometimes in sad mood can bring down valuations of strong business to realistic levels.
All businesses will trade at fair value at some point in time.With a strong base it will be difficult for any company to grow at 35% - 40% CAGR YoY . My mental model will be to calculate the projected EPS 4 years from now and apply a reasonable PE of 20 -22 times earnings and see where the price can head to. Unless I am convinced that there is enough headroom inspite of the stock trading at high valuations with my mental model I will restrain myself from investing. I always feel all stocks will trade at fair value at some point in time..
Page and Jockey as a brand is amazing but I am not sure whether an investor getting at this valuation will make higher risk adjusted returns
In fact risk is very low for a 20-25% kind of return over the ten year period.This is the summary of rather good report by MOSL. At the same time they are saying that management is confident of replicating last 5 yrs performance over the next 5ys. Not impossible but we need economy and most important inflation to recover. In that scenario forward PE will not go below 35.
I just checked Q3 trend and I think you are right. Thanks for correcting.
Looks like Basant Maheshwari has mostly exited Page Industries.
Disclosure: Not invested. Thought of sharing this news that I read.
Don’t think he confirmed he exited. He just wanted to remain evasive on specific stocks. He has surely exited Hawkins, HDFC and may be Gruh too.
Does it really matter whether basant has made an exit in page gruh. He must have found many new exciting bets to punt on specially in small cap pharma space where he seems super bullish. After watching the video my sense is that he has trimmed his position in both. Let’s us try to dig smal l cap pharma space more closely
Its true that wise people/ institutions invest during bad time & reap the benefits during GOOD Markets…While the gloomy conditions across the market & Page continue…Steadview Capital Mauritius Ltd has increased its holdings… They have submitted the disclosures under Reg. 29(2) of SEBI (SAST) Regulations, 2011
your assumptions can be incorrect and there are numerous example when FIIs have gone wrong. We will know in hindsight. Anything related to Mauritius makes me concerned since most of illicit money comes back through that route. FIIs have buying consistently but it has not stopped the slide in Page.
Discl: invested.
I agree that Basant Maheshwari’s exit doesn’t mean page’s story is over. I think Page has at least 5 to 10 years of 20 to 25% growth left. It has potential to do even 30% if macroeconomic factors starts working positively.
However, I am watching is closely to make sure this is not the beginning of a down trend. It would’ve been nice if management could do an interview and explain future road map and expected growth.
Disc: Invested and views could be biased.
Interesting. but again for every transaction there are both sellers and buyers. you cant read too much into it. i remember hdfc mutual fund selling page at 3000 or so (dont know the exact price). (may be they wanted to buy sbi, l&t, reliance, infosys etc :-))
off topic. Steadview has a lot of other interesting stocks in their portfolio. kajaria, cera, astral, la opala , eclerex to name a few
I think this e commerce thing can be slowly hurting Page too. This could be the reason behind lower sales growth in last 2 quarters. Earlier jockey was kind of monopolistic, but now customers are having choices gradually( not in a big way). going forward this trend needs to be monitored and can become stronger. Till nor customers were sticky with jockey, also bec of lesser options.
15-20 % CAGR is given for next 5-10 years, given the strong brand and franchise they have, but 30-35 % growth can be a tall ask
disc : not invested, exited long back