Page industries


(Rishi) #281

Here are notes from the AGM which lasted about an hour. It was not completely audible in some instances (marked ?), so others who joined the AGM please correct

  1. Produced 120.3m units in FY’15
  2. Stopped providing quantitative results in Annual Report to prevent competition from gaining insights
  3. Jockey online sales started, Speedo not yet
  4. Speedo website in construction in progress, should come out soon
  5. CSR regulation came suddenly, they were not ready with a plan to spend the money. An agency has been appointed to recommend spend of CSR money. This is the reason for low spend on CSR
  6. On strength of Women’s branding, it is being re-looked but it has started to grow better
  7. Confirmed that the license is for Nepal, Sri Lanka and UAE
  8. Royalty linked to topline (passing comment, to be verified)
  9. Govt provides 5% subsidy on loans. Strongly came out against issue of shares to raise capital.
  10. On slowdown in Tier 2&3: Nothing great we are managing
  11. Market share basis latest report (Annual report referred to BCG report of 2013): Men’s 19.3%, Boys 0.7%, Sports ?, Women 4.5%, Speedo ?
  12. Plan to get land for expansion on lease basis, will buy only in exceptional cases
  13. 70-80 cr capex plan per yr
  14. Apologised for omission of name of Bankers in the Annual Report
  15. Changed distributor in Sri Lanka, growing better
  16. On Diversification: Will look into it as and when opportunity comes
  17. Current expansion plans in Karnataka but outside Bangalore
  18. On headwinds and growth: Sunder mentioned that on an overall basis they think they have around 8% share of the potential market. So upside is huge

(vivek naik) #282

topline at 20% is lower than usual standard set by page,other expense component is higher by 15 crs any idea whether this is advertising,tax out go is higher by 6 crs, cant see any benefit of falling cotton prices in this qrt.


#283

two things clearly come out from Q1 report. Somehow cotton benefits are still not visible yet since gross margin remains same yoy. Growth is definitely lower than what it should be may be they are doing inventory clearance as indicated in Q4. If there is no effect of price hike, this 16% growth coming from volume is a great no and consistent with the trend. Anyway this PAT growth no. doesn’t allow it to sustain this valuation. Don’t know who was sucking huge selling on NSE.


(Harpreet Singh) #284

Request others who also attended the AGM to kindly contribute with their inputs !!!

Though in the last 2 -3 years this particular quarter has a large uptick in growth with maintenance of that growth in the subsequent ones , the relatively lower growth no’s makes one think that they may have started evening out the growth rather than this strong seasonality kind of a move in one.

My feedback is Page is doing pretty well on all the fronts and its growth will remain strong as before.


(gautham1) #285

I am surprised the price is holding. i guess this is their first disappointing (on a relative basis) quarter since it went public. i think its fair to assume page has entered the league of stalwarts. ie market wont punish on bad/average result ( wrt to PE). like the nestle,huls,asian paints of the world.


#286

Again two reasons to explain this. Almost all analysts are saying this is one-off blip and things would recover. I am sure they have got the same word from the management. On digging deeper only men’s segment volume has slowed unexpectedly while other segments held up well so some merit that it is temporary. I feel that this stock is in F&O so there are vested interests by holders to create an aura of stability and certain direction of movement. Will have to see if price holds up when broader market corrects.


(Krishna Rai) #287

There is not much to add beyond what Rishi has already mentioned from AGM. Couple of things which I would like to re-iterate because they seemed very interesting to me
1- The management is dead against diluting equity. Pius Thomas explicitly said that they would never do it.
2- Sunder Genomal feels that Page has merely scratched the surface given market (opportunity) size. I heard that on overall basis they are just 8% of market .Please note that Rishi has written 14% and there are fair chances that I am wrong. However the point about untapped market holds good irrespective of 8 or 14.
3- Since this was the third time I attended the AGM, I can say that one thing which always makes me feel better about Page is Sunder Genomal. He is hungry for growth and he speaks about it in a very straight forward way. I also got the sense that Q1 was an aberration and things should be better in Q2 and on wards. However at this point its better to not count too much on lower prices of cotton and crude.

Cheers,
Krishna


#288

Thanks Krishna, no doubt opportunity size remains huge. IMO it is more important that we figure out rate of growth to achieve those market share since the market is discounting a lot already.


(Arun Shah) #289

sumi00 - How to find the individual sales figure for each segment? I checked bse website, and that only contains the overall Q1 results for Page. Could not find any document that lists each segment sales figure. Please share the link.


#290

sorry buddy!, it is not available for retail folks :disappointed: they share it with the analyst community who publish it in their post quarter results commentary. I have not asked CS/IR for these nos. but someone can try. This is not hugely relevant as such but gives you insight into individual markets like women’s,sports and leisure segments continue to show handsome volume growth but men’s segment is slowing which is also a function of maturing market share. I am still happy since newer segments have higher price/unit bringing product mix benefits. However, the key for the next few yrs is kids wear which is expected to be relaunched in Q2.


(Nikhil Rodrigues) #291

I was there in AGM. Krishna and Rishi have covered everything. The overall market share as per management is 8% when we include all segments that Page sells in.

I spoke with Pius Thomas after AGM and asked him the reason of lower growth in Q1. He said they usually lunch new designs in Q1 every year and then push distribution channels. He said they could not launch new designs this Q1 and same will be done in Q2.

Though I will not take him on face value and will prefer to monitor Q2 closely.

Disc - Invested.


(Rishi) #292

Corrected the figure in the AGM notes. Thanks Krishna and Nikhil.


(Harpreet Singh) #293

market feedback was some new products are coming in Q2 …will try to be sure and as you said need monitor Q2 carefully !


(JKS) #294

There is less than 45 days left in Q2. Can we up our antenna and get more info from market ?


(Bobby Mehrotra) #295

hi KS,
spoke to three franchisees in three different cities in UP: Saharanpur, Allahabad and Ghaziabad.

  1. Saharanpur: No slump in demand. Products doing well and likely to do well. Was not aware of kidswear being introduced. Was not very forthcoming with info.

  2. Allahabad: No impact on demand in the last few months. Does not see any competition for the next 3-5 years. Mens innerwear doing very well. Ladies innerwear also doing well (for mens innerwear his reaction was immediate. For ladies he said bras doing very well instantly, and as an afterthought said panties also doing well). New products have been launched in the past month. These get pushed by ads of the company and generally the demand sustains. Was aware that kids wear is being launched. I asked him that it is being relaunched. What happened during the initial launch. His response - range was less, not many colours, problem with fabric. However, T shirts did well and continue to do well.

  3. Ghaziabad: Has two outlets. Many new products have been launched in the past two three months. Mainly for men. Response so far for the ‘relaxed range’ is mixed. MRP high. Another reason for teh mixed response cld be because the season is probably over. Had the alunch been in March April, the products would have sold out. Some qlty issues with the fabric. But nothing that cannot be rectified. Overall generally overshoots his sales target. Was not aware of kidswewar being launched. The company has not spoken to him yet abt kidswear.

  4. About a year back I was in a store in Lucknow. The sales people from Jockey were there two doing inventory. I asked tehm about the products and competition and he said ‘we are our own competition.’

I have a no. of a stockist in Allahabad. Tried calling him but no response. Shall try again. The genral impression that I got is that sales is not a problem and neither is the competition.

I wld like to finetune my queries with the stockist. Pls let me have yr feedback.
Rgds.


(K K AGGARWAL) #296

I understand from the local dealer in Delhi that page is also likely to launch new range of winter wear like
sweat shirts with hood etc.

Krishan

Aug. 18,2015


(JKS) #297

Thanks @bobbyusd Love these field reports. Thx again


(vijayM) #298

Reuters has reduced consensus eps from 238 to 234 for FY16. I expect an eps of 227. Main question is whether it will sustain its high PE of 79.


(Harpreet Singh) #299

Re recent Zivame on line adverts put all brands at a 15% discount except jockey , so clearly the brand is enjoying a strong growth in Women inner wear segment and does not feel the need to increase sales via discounting mode !


(Raj) #300

what an adjustment. Less than 2%…even company will not be able to predict that with precision.

God bless the analyst and their wonderful work using excel.