Page is a wonderful business with more than 60% RoE and high consistency in its performance. Those who are worried about its valuation will have to ask the question: How many businesses in India are growing at more than 30% with sound financial parameters like RoE, debt/etc. Further, if HLL can quote at 3 times growth, why not page? From the retail seller of the products of page, I get the feedback that page is launching many more products in near future and he sees huge demand for its products. Discl: Holding it since 2009.
Concensus estimate is around 235 for fy16.
You are right. i too look at that way. actually you are wrong in PEG details. hul, nestle and most of the other stalwarts are trading at about 5 times the growth. not 3.
btw the annual report is out. i was looking at the shareholding pattern. the CFO pius held 213 in the beginning of fy. he bought single or two shares in 5 transactions. sold 50 in one transaction. ends the year with 171 shares. i find it very strange. cfo must be knowing better than the rest right?. this always confuses me. ( i know that there have been numerous discussions about promoter selling. but still their stake is very high. but here i am talking about cfo holding only 171 shares :))
Matter of - A salaried man’s investing behaviour is shaped by his personal financial habits more this his position in the company ?
I too had noticed that
@vijayM, Hiteshbhai projected Rs 260 EPS (50% rise) due to low cotton inventory plus page’s consistent superior 35% eps growth YOY (he mentioned in earlier post).Can you tell us your rationales of EPS estimation Rs 235 ?
One thing I noticed in Page AR is that promoter stake has reached 51%.
This I believe is the minimum they need to hold as per agreement with Jockey.
Now, taking a cue from Dnyanesh’s presentation to think from point of view of promoter, I am thinking what they will do now since they can no longer sell few shares once in a while?
Either promoters need to increase remuneration to themselves or they have to increase dividends. I feel that the second is more likely.
A higher dividend though might be boost for some other stock, Page being already at high valuations may not make much difference. It could act as support in case of crash though.
Any views on this?
I am assuming a sales growth of 32.5% and net margin of 13% to arrive at 235 eps. Earlier, I have seen page using higher OPMs (due to cotton price fall), in spending more on ads and thus retaining NPMs at same level.
A quick scuttlebutt report from Pune in Phoenix and Inorbit malls:
- Franchise 1: 2 year old. Initial investment in stock: 35 Lakhs. ROI: 18 months
- Franchise 2: 6 months old. Initial investment in stock: 25 Lakh. ROI expected: Within 12 months
So I don’t see any Sell in strategy from Page. The business attractivity and brand image looks to be intact for all upcoming franchises.
There was a rocket move today from 15000 to 15250 within a minute. But didn’t sustain. Looks huge buying started before results.
Folks, How do I get details about the AGM that is happening tomorrow?
Where and When, And can anyone attend?
It is in Aloft Hotel, Cessna Business Park, Outer Ring Road, Bangalore.
Am planning to attend.
I am going to attend to get my dose of entertainment
Here is my prediction for the AGM: It will be a repeat of Lok Sabha monsoon session, with concerned shareholders stalling the AGM for lack of freebies and discontinuation of gift vouchers
Don’t worry about the session. Reach early to the venue, Try to catch management before and after AGM, you will get all your answers…This is what I have learned from my friends @VP and it works.
I have attended the last two AGMs of Page. I plan to attend even tomorrow. Last year one by one many fellows wasted everyone’s time talking/demanding freebies, auto fare and food. I remember Pius Thomas lost his composure
I have couple of questions from my side which are listed below. Add your questions and I will try to ask if allowed
1- What is current capacity for each of the segments in which company operates. At what level we were running last year. Is company planning any capacity expansion in near future.
2- Besides cotton the Crude had also been soft in the past. Crude is raw material for elastic material used in garments manufactured by Page. Did it help their margins in meaningful way.
3- What is Page’s strategy to get into Kid’s segment. In fact is there any strategy?
Will be great to know the agm details from Krishna and other attending members . If you can ask what kind of sales growth the company is expecting or targeting in next 5 years will be very interesting. Thanks and looking forward for members updates after agm. Best wishes friends !
Please ask about
- Kids wear…When will it be launched in a big way? How soon can it contribute meaningfully to revenues?
- Progress of ongoing capacity expansion
- When will Page get full benefit of cotton price drop? Cotton has fallen so much but margins have not showed a major improvement till now.
- Progress in other markets…Sri Lanka and Middle east.
- I have seen lots and lots Jockey ads all over Bangalore, but not so many in other cities. Why this bias to the hometown?
Also two questions
What is there strategy to handle sell in vs sell out? To understand if the dealers are loaded with stock and when? (Jockey and Speedo Separately)
What is the current break even for the franchisee partners of Page?
What is the plan to grow in Tier II and Tier III cities?
Stellar quarter again by page…
I will do the comparisons shortly
stay tuned for updates from Bangalore forum folks on AGM as well
Revenues and profits are up 16% odd. This is slower than previous run rates. I was expecting a fall but absolutely no response. Reduced a bit today but still >10% of PF