Matter of - A salaried man’s investing behaviour is shaped by his personal financial habits more this his position in the company ?
I too had noticed that 
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@vijayM, Hiteshbhai projected Rs 260 EPS (50% rise) due to low cotton inventory plus page’s consistent superior 35% eps growth YOY (he mentioned in earlier post).Can you tell us your rationales of EPS estimation Rs 235 ?
One thing I noticed in Page AR is that promoter stake has reached 51%.
This I believe is the minimum they need to hold as per agreement with Jockey.
Now, taking a cue from Dnyanesh’s presentation to think from point of view of promoter, I am thinking what they will do now since they can no longer sell few shares once in a while?
Either promoters need to increase remuneration to themselves or they have to increase dividends. I feel that the second is more likely.
A higher dividend though might be boost for some other stock, Page being already at high valuations may not make much difference. It could act as support in case of crash though.
Any views on this?
I am assuming a sales growth of 32.5% and net margin of 13% to arrive at 235 eps. Earlier, I have seen page using higher OPMs (due to cotton price fall), in spending more on ads and thus retaining NPMs at same level.
A quick scuttlebutt report from Pune in Phoenix and Inorbit malls:
- Franchise 1: 2 year old. Initial investment in stock: 35 Lakhs. ROI: 18 months
- Franchise 2: 6 months old. Initial investment in stock: 25 Lakh. ROI expected: Within 12 months
So I don’t see any Sell in strategy from Page. The business attractivity and brand image looks to be intact for all upcoming franchises.
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There was a rocket move today from 15000 to 15250 within a minute. But didn’t sustain. Looks huge buying started before results.
Folks, How do I get details about the AGM that is happening tomorrow?
Where and When, And can anyone attend?
It is in Aloft Hotel, Cessna Business Park, Outer Ring Road, Bangalore.
Am planning to attend.
I am going to attend to get my dose of entertainment
Here is my prediction for the AGM: It will be a repeat of Lok Sabha monsoon session, with concerned shareholders stalling the AGM for lack of freebies and discontinuation of gift vouchers 
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Don’t worry about the session. Reach early to the venue, Try to catch management before and after AGM, you will get all your answers…This is what I have learned from my friends @VP and it works.
I have attended the last two AGMs of Page. I plan to attend even tomorrow. Last year one by one many fellows wasted everyone’s time talking/demanding freebies, auto fare and food. I remember Pius Thomas lost his composure 
I have couple of questions from my side which are listed below. Add your questions and I will try to ask if allowed
1- What is current capacity for each of the segments in which company operates. At what level we were running last year. Is company planning any capacity expansion in near future.
2- Besides cotton the Crude had also been soft in the past. Crude is raw material for elastic material used in garments manufactured by Page. Did it help their margins in meaningful way.
3- What is Page’s strategy to get into Kid’s segment. In fact is there any strategy?
Cheers,
Krishna
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Will be great to know the agm details from Krishna and other attending members . If you can ask what kind of sales growth the company is expecting or targeting in next 5 years will be very interesting. Thanks and looking forward for members updates after agm. Best wishes friends !
Please ask about
- Kids wear…When will it be launched in a big way? How soon can it contribute meaningfully to revenues?
- Progress of ongoing capacity expansion
- When will Page get full benefit of cotton price drop? Cotton has fallen so much but margins have not showed a major improvement till now.
- Progress in other markets…Sri Lanka and Middle east.
- I have seen lots and lots Jockey ads all over Bangalore, but not so many in other cities. Why this bias to the hometown?
Also two questions
What is there strategy to handle sell in vs sell out? To understand if the dealers are loaded with stock and when? (Jockey and Speedo Separately)
What is the current break even for the franchisee partners of Page?
What is the plan to grow in Tier II and Tier III cities?
Stellar quarter again by page…
http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/7BD12EE5_94EF_4B9D_92F5_F4B5CB8C8D6F_113723.pdf
http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/reports/page-industries-limited-1466861.html
I will do the comparisons shortly
stay tuned for updates from Bangalore forum folks on AGM as well
Revenues and profits are up 16% odd. This is slower than previous run rates. I was expecting a fall but absolutely no response. Reduced a bit today but still >10% of PF
Here are notes from the AGM which lasted about an hour. It was not completely audible in some instances (marked ?), so others who joined the AGM please correct
- Produced 120.3m units in FY’15
- Stopped providing quantitative results in Annual Report to prevent competition from gaining insights
- Jockey online sales started, Speedo not yet
- Speedo website in construction in progress, should come out soon
- CSR regulation came suddenly, they were not ready with a plan to spend the money. An agency has been appointed to recommend spend of CSR money. This is the reason for low spend on CSR
- On strength of Women’s branding, it is being re-looked but it has started to grow better
- Confirmed that the license is for Nepal, Sri Lanka and UAE
- Royalty linked to topline (passing comment, to be verified)
- Govt provides 5% subsidy on loans. Strongly came out against issue of shares to raise capital.
- On slowdown in Tier 2&3: Nothing great we are managing
- Market share basis latest report (Annual report referred to BCG report of 2013): Men’s 19.3%, Boys 0.7%, Sports ?, Women 4.5%, Speedo ?
- Plan to get land for expansion on lease basis, will buy only in exceptional cases
- 70-80 cr capex plan per yr
- Apologised for omission of name of Bankers in the Annual Report
- Changed distributor in Sri Lanka, growing better
- On Diversification: Will look into it as and when opportunity comes
- Current expansion plans in Karnataka but outside Bangalore
- On headwinds and growth: Sunder mentioned that on an overall basis they think they have around 8% share of the potential market. So upside is huge
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topline at 20% is lower than usual standard set by page,other expense component is higher by 15 crs any idea whether this is advertising,tax out go is higher by 6 crs, cant see any benefit of falling cotton prices in this qrt.
two things clearly come out from Q1 report. Somehow cotton benefits are still not visible yet since gross margin remains same yoy. Growth is definitely lower than what it should be may be they are doing inventory clearance as indicated in Q4. If there is no effect of price hike, this 16% growth coming from volume is a great no and consistent with the trend. Anyway this PAT growth no. doesn’t allow it to sustain this valuation. Don’t know who was sucking huge selling on NSE.