Oriental Carbon and Chemicals Ltd

Rohit

this is from a press release on chemspec on its website. From what I understand, these new products from OCCL have found acceptance in the US market as a second vendor to eastman.

In most cases, distributors start with small volumes and once they are satisfied they make the beta release alpha.

In the context of significant potential, the challenge OCCL would face would be in expanding Insoluble Sulphur capacity. They plan to expand capacity at Mundra where land is available. But Mundra plant is in Adani SEZ for which the environmental clearance is under litigation in Supreme Court and till disposal no construction is allowed. It depends upon the timeline to settle the litigation and further time for expansion of the plant. Considering the capacity utilization this seems to be a key hurdle in the near term.

Correction to my previous post. The environment clearance came through last year. But I was not able to find out if OCCL is going ahead with capacity expansion at Mundra. Any news on that?

Very low no. of shares trading in this counter.Yesterdayeven less, only 475 shares were traded in delivery, that is 2.18 lacs , around 0.0045% of the total equity (Mcap is 472 Cr). Looks like the sellers aren’t many at this price.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/deliverable-volumes-price/orientalcarbonchemicals/OCC

disc: invested, views may be biased.

Good nos from OCCL , Margin improved :slight_smile:
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/D69232C3_89B9_49F5_B59C_3F0EB9C09044_181746.pdf

Yes dividend increased to 8.5 rs per share,PE v cheap at 8 for fy 16,mundra plant expansion on which will cater to huge US mkt doubling the opp size,euro appreciation impact to recede following price increase in a qtr or two,good growth in CV mkt in India.
buy on dips and hold

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Hi Vivek , its Rs 5.5 /share (http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=85931ead-8d39-47e2-9f32-5bac15bada61) . Nevertheless , excellent results.

Disc - Invested

Hi,Check again, as they already paid Rs:3 as interim dividend.

Not really good nos, sales have not grown in proportion of expenses. Margin improvement looks good because of other income. However future prospects looks good.

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  • An oligopoly
  • Capacity expansion with Good growth prospects in the US and elsewhere.
  • Dividend yield = ~2%
  • FY15 RoE = 22.5% , average RoE for last 10 years = ~20%

Valuations are cheap at cmp of 480/- imo.

Disc: invested.

OCCL Investor Presentation !!
http://www.occlindia.com/_financials/_presentation/OCCL_Investor_Presentation_FY15.pdf

I thinks like a steady compounder - 10-12 % topline growth and 15 -20 % bottom line growth with an occassional year of 20-25 % EPS growth. I am adding below Rs. 420/-- eventually this will re-rate after 2-3 years to 12-13x.

A 7x forward for a 20 % RoCE, monopoly, steady growth biz is quite low.

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Oriental Carbon announces capacity expansion at Mundra

http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=68ae811f-1a7f-4dcb-9f27-a4394199c618

Oriental Carbon Q1FY16 numbers
http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/610A674F_14FA_4BC7_9D3E_1E8084E14C43_151620.pdf

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seems a long awaited good news.Buyont Indian market for both internal consumption n manufacturing tyre exports ,foray in huge n lucrative US mkt are sweetners

On one hand the co. seems quite upbeat about growth in future from significant entry in China & US,also the growing use of radial tyres in domestic market. And on the other hand new capacity will come on stream only in start of fy18.

Knowing that co. is operating at optimal capacities,double digit revenue growth can only be seen in fy18 or post that. How much capacity can the de-bottlenecking add!

The co.might be expecting good growth but it doesn’t seem ready. Views invited.

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The Company’s entry into US markets is a long term strategical decission. The idea to create incremental customer base once the increased capacity gets commissioned

The current capacity is expected to be completely absorbed by existing customer and with significant contribution from the domestic consumers.

It must be noted that radialization of tyres requires 2.5x times of insoluble sulphur than what is required in normal tyres. With increasing radialization, strong demand is expected from the domestic markets

With the kind of growth it has posted historically and high return ratios, the stock looks to be very undervalued.

Disclosure - I am invested into this stock

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I think management heard you :slight_smile: one investor presentation in May, one in July and the quarterly result update is elaborate too :wink:

Most things about this stock are good an I am trying to pick holes in the story. What are your thoughts on the following -

  1. New plant is coming up in FYI 18 . Assuming 1,2 more years to stabilize operations , the exponential capacity boost will come from FY20 onwards. What are the chances of Chinese players upping their game by then (or before) and Oriental losing this advantage ? Any research on any mmajor chinese player?

  2. Any additional debt burdens due to the new plant ?

one new plant got commissioned last year. it will stabilize and add to topline and bottomline in the next two years.

The incremental capacity is being targeted to be commissioned by April 2017. With fund being not a constraint and this being a brownfield expansion, I don’t forsee significant delay in the expansion.

The Chinese players are very price competitive than OCCL, however they still dont have approval from major global tire manufacturer. This is attributed primarily due to quality issue.

The expansion is proposed to be funded by a total debt of Rs. 105 crs. I expect the entire long term debt of Rs. 65 crs to be fully paid by Dec 2017. With the kind of cash the business is throwing up, I really don’t see servicing of debt as a huge challenge.

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