Oriental Carbon and Chemicals Ltd

have full conviction on the story now - The No.2 in an oligopolistic industry as Avis says ’ tries harder".

Based on the primary research I have done, OCCL seems to be a VFM supplier that supplies the same quality IS at 15% cheaper than an import with better consistency and quicker TAT

Since IS is only 0.5 % - 1% of the total COGS of a tyre, a lot of tyre OEM’s might not mind going with a local supplier whose faces they can see and call every day.

The one fly in the ointment I am still not sure of is how much presence the company has in CV tyres - apparently, the company is strong in TW/car tyres but there the amount of IS and the grade does not necessarily translate to higher GM.

Apparently, the larger and more hard wearing the tyre, the tougher are the requirements of IS - for eg., earth moving equipment, volvo bus radials etc. where requirements are tougher as these tyres run continuously, and at higher temperatures and have a lot more load to carry

I am not clear from AR’s what kind of presence the company has in the CV/earth moving equipment tyres - that can move up margins further.

Does someone know anyone in a tire company on the procurement side ? if yes, please PM me.

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It has been falling, but on very low volumes. For ex. on 14th Oct. , total of just 1935 shares were sold in delivery which equals to arnd 6.4 lac rupees and company’s market cap is 350 Cr. -

http://www.moneycontrol.com/deliverable-volumes-price/orientalcarbonchemicals/OCC

Disclosure : bought today.

31st October. (interim dividend will also be decided on that day) -

It has been falling, but on very low volumes. For ex. on 14th Oct. , total of just 1935 shares were sold in delivery which equals to arnd 6.4 lac rupees and company’s market cap is 350 Cr. -

http://www.moneycontrol.com/deliverable-volumes-price/orientalcarbonchemicals/OCC Link: http://www.moneycontrol.com/deliverable-volumes-price/orientalcarbonchemicals/OCC

Disclosure : bought today.

The Q2 results are out…numbers looks good…margin also increased…very good set of numbers…further good growth is seen in this counter as crude is falling which will benefit in the profit margin and tyre companies are giving good sales part which indirectly benefitted this company…an interim divident of Rs. 3 is given which really add ice on the cake…I think it’s a value stock and must sit tight with it…I m very bullish on this stock and and try to add more…it’s still looks very cheap in compare to the market…and a very low volume stock …I am watching this stock that thr r very less sellers in this stock…it is nt yet fancy stock but once it get attracted by the market I think it will give unimaginary returns…

Disc:- I own this stock and hoping to add more

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It is surprising to see Solutia (Crystex) and Shikoku (Mu-Cron),the two competitors of OCCL also exporting to India. India imported around 775 MT of insoluble sulphur in 2Q Fy15 itself,OCCL’s domestic volumes were around 6000 MT (30%) for entire Fy14.

https://www.zauba.com/import-insoluble+sulphur-hs-code.html

Can someone clarify why is OCCL not catering to this demand? Are global tyre cos. sticking to Crystex from Solutia for their plants in India? Is the imported product superior,the same also doesn’t seem cheaper when one infers from OCCL’s export data on the same site.

Nikhil

-From the scuttle butt I did, it is because there are pockets which are price sensitive and operate on L1 - hence they prefer chinese imports (kerala, two wheeler moped tyres etc.)

)- Also, what’s worthwhile noting is that every tyre manufacturer always have two suppliers in the ratio of 70:30 or thereabouts to make sure that there is no dependence on only one supplier - so, imports will happen

)- Also, for high -end tyres like michelin etc. where price is no bar (cars upwards of 20 lakhs), they still would never go with an indian manufacturer - for eg., S class, porsche which operate on a “one model for the world” model. So, they would import IS too.

Nothing to worry about - as long as OCCL’s share in domestic market grows ahead of import growth, we’re ok. Can you track that ?

And as long as export growth is about 5-10% for OCCL, we’re again doing alright. How does one check that ? Can you please check and confirm.

It’s late, but also find attached a write-up I posted on OCCL after a month of fairly deep research. It’s a high conviction stock for me.

oriental-carbon-SZ-write-up.docx (20.8 KB)

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@Varadharajan: I like your write-up. The biggest catch is if the PE re-rating to 15 will occur or not, which is another way of asking, if the company is a cyclical or not.

If the auto-sector is a cyclical, is this also not a cyclical? If not, why did demand slow down during the auto-slump the past few years. ARs clearly mention management trying to expand sales to new customers in EU and US, with difficulty and slowing sales.

Thanks

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Raghunathan ji,

Thanks for the write up. The export data on a couple of websites is incomplete and cannot be tracked. The import data seems reliable if compared to govt.'s data in following link.

http://commerce.nic.in/eidb/Icom.asp

Use the HS code 28020010 as mentioned in detailed import data from the link in previous post. I think 28020010 also consists of goods other than IS,so not completely reliable.

Next big trigger for the co. is radialization of truck/bus tyres as mentioned in the AR,IS is has increased use in production of radial tyres. Only 30% of truck/bus tyres sold in India are radials and the proportion is poised to go up if you look at the ARs of tyre manufacturers in India,even recent capacity additions by these manufacturers for radials adds confidence.

My bad,28020010 is the HS code shown in export data. Import is being done under various HS codes and hence it would be impossible to comprehensively figure out the import/export movement.

[

http://commerce.nic.in/eidb/Icom.asp](http://commerce.nic.in/eidb/Icom.asp)

Major positive for radial tyre makers and OCCL. Cross ply tyres allow overloading.

I would’nt get too excited by this - this over loading ban happened in 2005 or thereabouts but enforcement has been weak. Look at the number of people breaking any traffic signal in any city in India at any given moment and you will know what I mean. Even Gopinath Munde was a victim of the lax road law enforcement.

This happened in 2005 and nothing changed post. I am in touch with someone from Sundaram Finance and he says this is just a recurring empty talk and nothing changes ever. A few gandhis at every check post can solve any problem in India.

On a lighter note, these talks are the ultimate “reversion to mean” - a few days everyone talks about it and then it’s forgotten. I would never bet on anything that requires a lot of enforcement and consistent intervention by the government - I prefer tailwinds created by policy actions - like increasing FDI investments, easier clearance for road projects etc.

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Der Nikhil

zauba.com will give detail import export data

[

http://commerce.nic.in/eidb/Icom.asp](http://commerce.nic.in/eidb/Icom.asp)

i have seen lot of people liking this stock at current valuation , but what about the growth ? company is already running at good capacity utilization and there is no further addition in capacity .

Only possibility is the margin expansion through crude is main raw material.

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Vishal

I agree - I think one of the issues with this stock is that the management does not communicate anything - no conf calls, no investor presentation, nothing.

We will know post Q3 results about how volume/sales growth are shaping up

Dear Vishal,

I spoke with teh management a while ago. I was told the main raw material is not crude (as I assumed). Instead it is Sulphur. I am not a technical person who can confirm or refute this statement. I tried to set up a meeting in delhi, but they showed no interest.

One thing I noticed- there is almost continuous decline in EBITDA margin since 3Q14. It was 30% in 3Q14, then fell to 29.7% in 4th quarter 2014, then fell to 25% in 1Q15 and latest figure is 23.9% in 2Q15. Any member has a view on this, please share.

Disc- not invested

Anil

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ICRA upgrades rating of OCCL to A-

The product mix of OCCL continues to be dominated by Insoluble Sulphur which contributes to more

than 90% of the total sales. OCCL reported 13% (yoy) increase in sales volumes of IS driven by more

approvals from overseas customers, increasing radialisation of tyres in the domestic market and

revival of demand from the European market. The companyâs customer base comprises almost all

major tyre manufacturing companies of the world with whom it enjoys long standing relationships.

OCCL derives ~70% of its revenues from exports with Europe being the major market. The company

also enjoys a dominant position in the domestic tyre industry with a significant market share gained

during its long track record. Closely guarded technology, capital-intensive nature of the business and

long gestation period of about one and half years involving quality checks and approvals from the tyre

manufacturers for commercial production act as the entry barriers for other players in the industry.

OCCL is focusing on increasing the share of value-added grades of Insoluble Sulphur to consolidate

its position in the market as a premium IS supplier.

The operating income of OCCL increased by 16% to Rs. 262.39 crore in FY14 from Rs. 226.61 crore

in FY13 attributable to 13% (yoy) growth in sales volumes and 3% (yoy) higher realisation. The

operating margins of the company increased to 29.3% in FY14 from 26.1% in FY13 owing to increase

in sales of value add products resulting in higher realizations of IS along with depreciated level of INR.

Following lower debt levels due to scheduled repayments of term loan and rise in net worth owing to

robust profit, the total gearing of the company decreased to 0.58 time as on March 31, 2014 to 0.78

time as on March 31, 2013. Driven by improved profitability and capital structure, the coverage

indicators of the company improved significantly during FY14 as reflected by interest coverage of 6.95

times and NCA/Total Debt of 36% during FY14 vis-a-vis 4.63 times and 23% respectively during FY13.

The company may undertake debottlenecking at its IS plant which would increase the annual capacity

of the plant. However, the final investment decision is yet to be taken by the company.

Schrader Duncan Limited, the subsidiary of OCCL, is into manufacture of automotive tyre valves and

pneumatic products such as air cylinders, valves, and accessories. There has been improvement in

operating performance of the company over the last one year as the company reported marginal

operating profit of Rs. 2.15 crore in FY14 against operating loss to the tune of Rs. 0.58 crore in FY13

in the backdrop of increase in sales volumes in the automotive business and various restructuring and

cost reduction initiatives undertaken like shifting of facilities at single location which, in turn, eliminates

duplication of cost. The ability of SDL to trim its working capital cycle and improve internal operating

efficiencies remains critical for its liquidity profile.

The production and sales volumes of OCCL are expected to increase over FY15 on account of

improvement in capacity utilisation for Mundra plant in view of high export volumes in line with modest

recovery in demand from the Europe and higher domestic demand driven by increasing trend of

radialisation of tyres. Higher-than-anticipated debt funded capex or substantial fall in profitability

leading to significant deterioration in debt protection metrics would be the key rating sensitivities. The

ability of the company to scale up its operations while efficiently managing higher working capital

requirements would be another rating sensitivity. Further, ICRA would also keep monitoring the

operational performance of SDL and its impact on consolidated financials.

We’ve noticed, since we began distributingOCCL’s insoluble sulfur products, that some customers are using Chinese manufactured material, due to its cheap price. We strongly believe that you should consider ChemSpec’s insoluble sulfur (DS OT 20 HD & DS OT 20 HS)–even if priced higher than the competition–because of our products’ quality. This really comes down to the old adage:you get what you pay for!Generally speaking, to be used properly in commercial manufacturing, insoluble sulfur needs to have the following characteristics:

  • High Thermal Stability,
  • High Insoluble Sulfur Content,
  • Controlled fineness,
  • Absence of any hard particles,
  • Low ash Content, and
  • Absence of any foreign particles and low Iron Content.

The above is necessary to ensure that the material does not bloom , disperses well, and there is no ingress of undesired material inside the rubber compound. You will notice with Chinese-manufactured Insoluble Sulfur–from any supplier–that several of these parameters are likely lacking. This is the reason that no Chinese suppliers presently have Global approvals from any of the major tire manufacturers (NOTE: our product does have global approvals from the international tire producers). The processes used by Chinese producers commonly have some very basic, but serious, production issues–namely the following:_1). Production technology that cannot attain the above-described desired production parameters;__2). Production technology that cannot assure stability in the production performance parameters;__3). Their production processes do not use high grade quality stainless steel, which causes high corrosion levels and increased iron content;__4). Inadequate grinding technology, which does not allow uniform grinding; causing particle size distribution problems; and__5). Manual handling during some important production steps, translating into improper ingress of foreign material (our supplier’s process is automated)._Oftentimes, these failures result in, over time, the Chinese material chemically changing back to straight sulfur. So this problem is amplified if a customer is purchasing this material and having it shipped from China to another continent (i.e. North America), where the product sits for several months before being placed into a recipe.For any further inquiries, please reach-out to us atChemSpecLtd.com(or your respective sales representative).

by Chris Wagner, ChemSpec Sales Coordinator

ChemSpec is pleased to announce two new insoluble sulfur products it is now distributing on behalf ofOriental Carbon & Chemical, Ltd(aOCCLa). The products are DS OT 20 (HD) and DS OT 20 (HS)[the Specific Gravity & Bulk Density of both are (at 30C) 1.58 0.05, and (g/L) 400 to 650, respectively]. These products typically come in 25-Kg. bag packaging. ChemSpecas principle, OCCL, an Indian company, is one of the global market leaders in the production of Insoluble Sulfur for the Tire and Rubber industry, both in terms of quality as well as quantity. OCCLas production capacity presently stands at 22,000 Mt per annum (with new capacities slated to be added in near future). OCCLas commitment to quality is illustrated by its ISO 9001-2000 and EMS 14001-2004 Certifications._OCCL’s insoluble sulfur is internationally approved by the major tire manufacturers._Insoluble sulfur, an amorphous form of sulfur, and made from the heat-polymerizing of sulfur, is a macromolecule polymer. It is a critical rubber additive, and improves product quality, wearability and resistance. Recognized across the industry as likely the best vulcanizing agent due to its avulcanization speed,a it is used in both the manufacturing of radial and synthetic rubbers, such as these products: tires, automobile parts, rubber piping, cable and wire, shoe materials, latex, and belt tires. Insoluble sulfur also tends to disperse uniformly in rubber, so it can prevent the conglomeration of sulfur, and reduces the tendency of scorching during store. It is also used to prevent ablooming.a

OCCL entering US market is a big step akin to Indian pharma cos entering US market as US market is the biggest of all and USD remaining strong and US economy recovering well.

OCCL Mundra plant expansion is on which should cater to US market.Co should move to next orbit in 2 years as opportunity size suddenly multiplies.

Execution track record of promoters is on track.valuation too seems most reasonable at CMP.

Views invited.

Hi Vivek,

Completely agree with you that entering US market is a big boost to the company’s prospects for the reasons you mentioned. Just wanted to know what’s the source of this news. The reason I am asking this is that, if I understand it correctly chemspec has been distributing occl’s products previously as well. Have they expanded their distribution to the US markets also or my understanding is wrong? Thanks