Nifty PE crosses 24|A statistically informed entry-exit model!


(Amit Jain) #649

Not much prediction (Technical Analysis) is required when one knows well enough to buy Index scrips only below Nifty PE 17, and sell above PE 22. This is very likely to beat the index and most mutual fund performances.

All additional tactics of are only fine tuning.


(josephseby) #650

Hi,
Can you share any source from which we can get historic data for this


(vaibhav) #651

Do we have any source for shiller-PE for Indian markets… standalone pe is ~26, consolidated pe is ~23, I would say shiller-PE would be less ( Say around 20?) coz earnings haven’t grown as much as the inflation over the years…


(pkk123) #652

Assuming PE correction happens via price correction every time and not through earnings expansion.


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #653

Worth a look.


#654

But they definitely see lot of value in Bitcoin


(Amit Jain) #655

Price correction not important. Only PE correction to normal is reason enough. Price correction may or may not happen to expectation.


(pkk123) #656

But then how will this strategy beat the index?


(kishor barhate) #657

Valuation as on today: another perspective

Country: India (updated daily) check out Global Overview of detailed
methodology.

Ratio of total market cap over GDP: Maximum - 158%; Minimum - 40%; current

  • 72%
    Expected future annual return: 15.2%

ETF Used for dividend yield: INDA
https://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=INDA (Yield=0.57%)
Market Index used: BSE SENSEX
Current Annual GDP: $2,453 billion US dollars or 159,582 in billions of
national currency (GDP in Local Current Prices Annual Growth=13.91%)
Data since the year 1997

Kishor Barhate


(Changu Mangu) #658

Nifty 500 PE, Dividend, P/B Excel from 1996 to date.

1996-2017.xlsx (245.4 KB)


#659

Hi Thanks for putting this up. Is this consolidated or standalone number.


(Changu Mangu) #660

Hi @nav_1996. Standalone. From start date to current.


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #661

Interesting view on China and its impact on global markets.


(josephseby) #662

Hi
I am posting charts of williams accumulation / distribution


Here the accumulation lvls has brocken the trend line from 2016 feb lows of 6800 nifty. (blue trend line)The breakdown happened on nov 30th. The breakdown when Nifty PE is above 26 requires caution.

This is the williams accumulation / distribution charts from 2009 lows. The present accumulation lvls is approaching the long term trendline which was formed after a breakout of the then trendline in January 2012.(red trend line).
Sorry i was not able to post a chart with X axis( ie date axis )


(josephseby) #663

Hi,
Here I am posting a chart for India Vix

. A clear breakout can be seen in the India Vix trend which was intact from 2014. This means more volatile days may be ahead.


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #664

Whenever you post charts, please make sure you make the time series axis visible too, that would be helpful.


(Bheeshma Sanghani) #665

I have found key reversal days to be a good quick and dirty indicator to identify a possible correction. They work particularly well on an index. While market timing is beyond my understanding but i believe one should be observant and possibly learn a few tricks that could help. Even the venerable Benjamin Graham was observant of market prices while laying down the intellectual framework of value investing. A key reversal day is when there is a new high and the market closes below the low or near the low of the previous day.

An interesting observation - in the past few instances of key reversal days the market corrected but the correction hasnt extended to below the previous low - basically there was no lower low. In the most recent correction there is a definite lower low. However one should ideally like the market to put in another one of these lower lows coupled with a lower high to be of significance possibly in the wake of some really good news on the economy. I think quarterly gdp numbers have shown an uptick on the same day the market put in a low.

Best
Bheeshma


(Amit Jain) #666

Candlestick patterns is a game of probability. One does have a 5% advantage. However, all the occurrences must be acted upon, else all the probabilistic bets are off. So it is really dangerous. I mean, it is dangerous because it looks simple, wherein we see an occurrence and act. But, that is not the reality. Several mental and cognitional biases come into play. It is murky, and not simple to say the least.

It is a hoax. There is no uptick. It is governments strategy to highlight a shred of good. Having read todays TOI center page article by Swaminomics
I am convinced even more. People do not have money to spend. Especially, the sectors of expensive things (the non-essetials) like homes, cars and jewelry are down and out. People are cheering new stock market highs, I worry.

PS: Do not agree with the Gau Rakshak argument in the article. As there are environmental damages.


(Bheeshma Sanghani) #667

Hi @jamit05

I find Key Reversal Days an interesting tool . Like all other tools in TA - there is a unknown failure rate rendering them inadequate as an investment basis. However , some of these tools do help you in gauging the temperature from time to time which may be useful in postponing or preponing some actions you may want to take in individual positions to get more favourable price terms.


(josephseby) #668

Hi,
Sorry in my previous chart the time axis was not clear. Pls find the Nifty 50 (blue one)Vs Indiavix charts.(red one). A clear breakout from the trend for past 3 years is seen on india vix. So we may expect increase in volatility in days ahead. The success of a long term investor may depend on how he behaves during the volatile days and during the drawdown period.