I’m assuming such a high figure for fii net selling must be due to some stock specific selling in a recently listed company.
1 Like
Someone did the hardwork. Credit to Afnan Maharoof from another forum - “Large Blocks Crossed in the market today: 9.97mn Bharti Airtel, 1.35mn Yes Bank, 1.15mn ICICI Lombard, 798k Future Retail, 553k HDFC Bank FII, 521k UPL, 480k L&T, 399k M&M, 366k Divi’s Lab, 300k Cholamandalam Investment, 186k HDFC, 10k EicherMotors.”
6 Likes
Now the question is why were fiis selling these stocks
1 Like
Still wondering why FIIs are selling. What if DII join them? What will happen?. Selling has not even begun, but remember there will be a false breakout. Still want to try “Buy on dips”.
I 
buying on dips. Finished one round of buying…waiting for more!
Here’s a contra view on Indian economy and markets:
I could not resist posting 
Today again Nifty has crossed 26 PE.
The move in many stocks today was incredible. So many moved up by 5-10-15%. Is this the final up move happening while we watch? Was today the first day of euphoria?
Logging comment for hindsight review.
I don’t know if this is the final upmove before the big fall, however as a new investor, hoping it is 
Many ‘new’ investors are hoping which means a big fall is unlikely and why is 25 PE so expensive when my liquid funds are giving the same yield post (DD) tax?
1 Like
Sir,
New investors like yourself is the main reason big fall is unlikely to come any time soon. Thanks to all the fresh money there will be buying at every low level.
For the fall to really come, not only should new investors be scared of entering the markets but even the existing investor should be scared of holding and should sell!
8 Likes
Here’s an excerpt from Kenneth Andrade interview:
If India continues to grow at 5-6% in four years, companies will run out of capacity, before the start of the next investment cycle. That’s how the cycle is moving. Corporate India is throwing lot of cash but has no growth. The growth will come, once companies have been able to stabilise balance sheets, which is what banks are struggling with and then you flip on to the next cycle. If you maintain this profitability, we should be good to start a cycle in 2019-2020. This in turn means Indian markets can hold on to valuations.
Expensive because equities carry risk (credit risk, accounting/fraud risk, key man risk, liquidity risk etc.) which liquid funds don’t…
Who said there is no risk in liquid funds?
Well there is risk in everything, but are the risks comparable?
Looking forward to TA (Technical Analyst) gurus to analyze the first chart and predict
1) How much higher from here
2) How long
If any macro economist out here, I’m interested to hear your views
on this rise.
All: Look at the smoothness of the rise … Perfection and precision (no major or minor correction) at it’s best in financials markets so for in the recent past.
Reduced today to only 1% invested. Now 90 % Cash and 9% Gold.
This seems dramatic even to myself but if I am not comfortable being invested in such a elevated market, I need to do what I think is correct.
I spent the last couple of weeks and this weekend feeling very comfortable looking at the market weather. It seemed to me that the market cannot correct with so much inflows and I started to agree with the feeling that it is a golden period till there are strong DII inflows. That was enough to give me a pause for thought as it sounded an alarm when even a worrying person like myself seemed to find complacency setting in. I had no choice but to decide to immediately pare of my investments in stocks.
As Arnold famously said - I will be back 
14 Likes
Same here friend @valuestudent
I see investment stats and every single day I see FII’s are moving their money out of the market while the DII is pumping their money in and that’s been the case for almost the last couple of months straight, and this constant DII investment is keeping the market afloat at what appears to me is already a pretty frothy level overall.
I have also noticed another thing that for the last 6 months or so (possibly beyond) is that the market is simply not paying any attention to any kind of negative news, such as the recent GDP data for example.
But contrary to that the market is reacting very positively to any kind of good news (even the not so significant ones). This is what is making me very nervous.
I have very limited experience of the market, so maybe I am misreading the current situation.
But I am thinking about the notion which Warren Buffet put forward ‘be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful’.
I see some brilliant businesses (thanks to the discussions we have in this forum), but a major portion of them appears to be way ahead of their ‘fair’ price.
Maybe I am being overly defensive, but I think it will be better for me to wait till this result season to passes and then see how the market reacts to that and only after the dust settles I will make any decision.
2 Likes
Hi @AVB
One can never say what will happen right away, but we went many years not investing, so the pressure to invest at every moment should not exist now that we can invest.
If we can supply the patience, opportunities always come around.
3 Likes
Timing the market is futile. Here is the proof.
If you are a genius at timing the market and managed to buy exactly at the low of the market every year for last 39 years (since Sensex came into existence) your compounded annual return would have been 14.4%.
If you are a complete dummy at timing the market and managed to buy exactly at the high of the market every year for last 39 years, your CAGR return would have been 12%.
If you are an average investor who invest regularly in the market, you would have bought at annual average rates and earned about 13.2% CAGR over the same 39 years.
Point is, a genius earns about 1.2% more than the average guy who earns about 1.2% more than a complete dummy. A difference of 1.2% over 39 years is large but what’s is the chance of buying at the low each year for 39 years in a row? 0% right? Compare that to all the energy wasted in timing the market. Its not worth it.
Here is the calculation.
Market Timing.xls (716 KB)
Note: Data is sourced from BSE.
Focusing on finding the right companies is the way to go. Your returns can be easily double the averages.
28 Likes
Selling to be cautious of euphoria in the market is not market timing in its truest sense. It is being prudent as one needs to both buy and hold in bear market conditions to gain desired CAGRs. One needs to trim off positions that exceed their IV to be able to buy positions when the price goes below IV.
Market timing is more for momentum strategies, this is just being rational according to one’s own belief. Also, everyone who sells prudently does not target to sell at the top and buy at the bottom. Most VI who follow this strategy are happy to leave 20%-30% notional gains/losses on either side to gain LT CAGRs.
3 Likes