Natco Pharma: Focusing On Complex Products

(Harshit Goel) #188

Concall Q4FY18 notes

  • Our top 4 products in USA are Tamiflu, Copaxone, Liposomal Doxorubicin and Lanthanum Carbonate.
  • Copaxone is doing good in USA, shift to 40 mg was beneficial. Greater benefits from Copaxone will be seen in later quarters.
  • Imatinib will be launched in FY 2019 but won’t make any money on it. Too much competition is there for it. If we launch it in first wave then might make some money but if we launch it with everybody else we won’t make any money on it.
  • Revlimid will provide good annuity type income from March 2022.
  • Decline in Hepatitis C sales in domestic market has been stabilised. Currently we are doing Rs. 70 cr sales per quarter which is reasonable and will stabilise at these levels.
  • Q4 sales bifurcation
    Formulation Export: Rs. 492 cr. (rs. 433 cr was profit share and Rs. 59 cr sales)
    Formulation Domestic: Rs. 158.5 cr.
    API Domestic: Rs. 8.2 cr.
    API Export: Rs. 51.50 cr.
  • FY18 sales bifurcation (standalone)
    Formulation Export: Rs. 1040 cr.
    Formulation Domestic: Rs. 720 cr.
    API: Rs. 285 cr.
  • Guidance of 8-10% growth in topline and net profit for FY 2019.
  • Conditions in US generic market is tough, there is no visible sign of a turnaround. One can remain hopeful but we would like to plan keeping reality in mind. Therefore we will focus on ROW market from FY 2020.
  • For FY 2020 and 2021 focus will be on ROW markets specially India, Brazil and Canada. We expect to file 6-7 FTF in next one year in both Brazil and Canada. Hope to get approvals in Brazil by March 2019 and launch products in FY 2020. Whatever we loose from Tamiflu from 2020 will be made up from India, Brazil and Canada. Will be focusing on Oncology and Multiple Sclerosis in ROW. Brazilian market is based on government tenders.
  • Excluding Hepatitis C we will grow by 15-16% in domestic market.
  • Vizag Plant will be completed in next 2-3 months, expect to commercialise it by September 2018.
  • Will spend Rs. 350-400 cr on CAPEX this year.
  • There was a one time increase of Rs. 30 cr. in employee cost in Q4. Rs. 20 cr was given as one time bonus to employees and Rs. 10 cr. extra provision was done due to change in Provident Fund rules by government.
  • Other income in Q4 includes Rs. 16 cr as interest income and Rs. 4 cr. as export benefits. This will be maintained at same levels in next quarter as also we have surplus cash balance.
  • Tax rate for next two years will be 21%.
  • We don’t hedge our foreign currency exposure, everything is left open. The day we receive dollar payment we convert it into rupee.

(manivannan.g) #189