My richdreamz portfolio - visit my portfolio to learn together!


(richdreamz) #42

I was looking for “Alpha” when I bought into Cupid stock, looks like the stock wanted to give me “Infinity” instead, on a lighter note.

The stock is locked in upper circuit as I write this, obviously I’m delighted, but I did not find any news yet on the stock exchange for this uptick though.


Cupid Ltd – Helping the world play safe!
(reacher) #43

:sweat_smile:this is where one wishes if he had a higher allocation to an alpha stock


(richdreamz) #44

A new suitor for my portfolio, posted my thoughts at the appropriate thread. Please read disclosure at the below link.


(richdreamz) #45

So far, Gruh, PI Ind, CCL Products, MPS Ltd have declared results which are in my portfolio and all the 4 have more or less declared on the expected lines give or take few crores. I have provided my views on MPS, PI Ind in their respective threads. Repco, Page, Cupid, Virat are yet to declare. Going by other HFC results, Repco, I think should declare good results. Fingers crossed.


(dreddevil27) #46

Your clarity of thoughts on each business you own is wonderful. Love reading your updates in your portfolio thread. Can you briefly put your thoughts on Gruh results. Thanks


(chirag jain) #47

Can you just share your views on PI industries.

Can one enter now around 645 - 670 will long term horizon ( 5 years )

Just asking for your views, nothing more than that.

Disc : not invested but planning to intiate the position


(richdreamz) #48

Gruh results need not be tracked on a QoQ basis because of the super track record the company built over the years. This quarter, the results are good enough.

The business would grow at 25% thereabouts for the next few years barring any unforeseen circumstances. Stock growth is different from business growth, do not confuse between the both. I read somewhere that Gruh grew its net profits at 25% plus over last decade but the stock grew at 43%. So, there might be some consolidation before the stock moves. Typically it consolidates for sometime before starting its run, this time it looks like it’s taking time. It will be expensive when compared to other stocks for sure because of its track record. Typically, it will under go only time correction, price correction on a larger scale in not possible.


(richdreamz) #49

@chiragjain1976 I have provided my views on PI in its respective thread just yesterday, you may take a call based on this.


(MHS) #50

Hi

Your posts are logical and always inspire all here in VP to do more homework on businesses.
Any update on PF or any thing u r buying…or …looking to buy.

Regards


(richdreamz) #51

Thanks @MHS for your kind words.

The reason why I have not been updating this thread has something to do with the SEBI norms though I have been providing my views on individual stock threads. Please take cues from there.

You open doors for fresh air but along with fresh air dust too comes in. The resolution for this is “clean the dust” not “close the doors”. Unfortunately the regulator does not think so.

Anyway, IF the earnings next year would be more than this year and you are fairly confident of this based on your analysis and market has valued the stock accordingly, then there is no reason whatsoever to get afraid and sell. Ensure that promoters are squeaky clean in terms of corporate governance, you cannot lose money when the management is honest, at worst you will only make less money. So, evaluate your portfolio and if there is any black sheep time to make the move.

All the best!


(cathene) #54

It’s been a great pleasure to read your post and conviction you bring to the table on each stock you hold . It would be helpful to the fellow valuepickrs if at least quarterly or bi monthly you impart wisdom to newbies like myself.

With great pleasure
Cathene


(richdreamz) #55

If my experience helps some new investors I would be delighted to share the same here.

I have chosen this time to post as the times are unusual and decisions taken at these times matter a lot in the long term CAGR of your portfolio.

In 2008 when I was a newbie, under similar circumstances I chose wrong stocks but I have realised my folly quite early and invested only in mutual fund SIPs for sometime before I learned and started on my own sometime early 2013. The CAGR for past 5 years has been 31.95% approximately as of today’s stock prices.

  1. Shun low quality stocks like a virus. Turnaround stocks do seldom turnaround as someone said and I have witnessed this a number of times. A high quality compounder is a lot better even if you have to pay some premium valuations. How much premium depends on variable factors indicated below.

  2. Predicability of earnings, Sustainability, Consistency of earnings, size of opportunity, management’s ability in milking it, management integrity has a major role to play in the “P/E ratio” which NO mathematical formula can derive.

  3. Mathematically, P/E ratio should never be looked in isolation, it is a function of numbers like growth, RoE, dividend yield, D/E ratio, how many years the growth can sustain.

  4. Market would like to arrive at the Price of a stock as far as the earnings are visible. If earnings are visible until 2023, then market will apply a PE based on 2023 numbers. That is why consumers are available at high PE while steel stocks are at low PE. With what certainty can you tell me the EPS of Tata Steel in 2021? Not with as much certainty as a consumer stock. right?

  5. Equity investing is about growth, 20% growth at 30 PE is ALWAYS better than 10% growth at 10 PE, all things being equal. Likewise, 30% growth will be at 50 PE. The PE will sustain AS LONG AS the growth sustains. No questions asked, bear market or not. If the market thinks the 30% growth can sustain for 10 years then the usual and sensible PE ratio will be of not much use.

  6. It is better to invest only in such companies where you have the highest conviction otherwise there are chances that you may exit at exactly the wrong time.

  7. It makes immense sense to learn technical analysis along with stock fundamentals. More often than not the exit can be better judged through technicals. Technicals are nothing but what all others think and which I think is more important than what you alone think. There is NO point in living in denial. The market as an aggregate knows better than you do in the short term. Sometimes it is better to exit rather than see a stock fall and bear the pain believing in ones fundamental analysis.

  8. Use steep corrections for churning into high quality and no corporate governance issues companies which will bounce back strongly and more importantly quality companies will PRESERVE the gains while the low quality ones give back all and more.

  9. No 100% concentration in a single stock or 2 stocks so% each no matter how juicy the opportunity is. There are far more factors that influence a business than you or for that matter the owner can ever imagine.

  10. When facts change (e.g. management is fraud, financial wrong doings, sector damage due to govt. regulations), sell swiftly. No points for being loyal to a company and that to a fraud one!

  11. Temporary blips in growth can be excused given that it is temporary. You need to be able to differentiate if it is temporary or permanent otherwise you have no business in owning the stock! You HAVE to work hard on the companies you own and know at least the factors that can damage the earnings capability of a business. Else, look at mutual funds of well known fund houses.

A table which I made for my needs while evaluating companies for entry/exit. Some of you may find it useful.

These are some of my learnings which may not hold true for everyone and I’m not here to prove my learnings and debate.


(Milind) #56

Really nicely summed up… can not agree more than what you wrote. Thanks for sharing your thoughts