My Portfolio_Homemaker

Already at 50%+ market share and PV grows slowly in the long run (10 year period). Rather than looking only at the volume, why not look at the margins? It is clear that market is shifting towards B segment. First time buyers (50% of sales) are moving to B and C segments. The variants sold are usually mid variant in B and C segments while the A segments are dominated by base variants.
OPM has been slowly growing from 10% levels to 15% now. You could try forecasting it to see if the impact is substantial.

Coming back to volumes , it is clear that MSIL has to steal market share from other players. After BS6, cars and utility vehicles that are purchased for value for money tag will shift to petrol. Mahindra for example may possibly lose some more market share to MSIL. The cost advantage will play out and this may become a very tough oligopoly market with MSIL and Hyundai running the show at different segments. As someone rightly said, the one advantage that can last forever is cost efficiency. Hence it is possible to see some market share re-allignment after BS6 rolls out.

Disclosure: MSIL is 30% of portfolio

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@homemaker

What is your thesis behind LTTS? Arent you worried about the valuations on the same?

Would like to have your insights on the their products and services and what is your thesis on them? (brief one is enough you dont need to type out your entire thesis)

My portfolio is behaving strangeā€¦ I am sure experienced investors have seen such before as well. Its kind of an elastic rope, being pulled at both extremes, but the mid point remaining at same place. That means, half of stocks are doing good and rest half equally bad and portfolio is stuck at same place.

Should I buy more of losers is also a question in my mind?

Any thoughts on this will be of good help.

I dont have detailed thesis. Its borrowed from LTTS thread in Value Pickr.

Specific to what I liked is its into 4-5 new tech areas like AI, Blockchain, IoT etc. Secondly its L&T parentage. Thirdly, the actual growth is exceeding management guidance or AR projection. Lastly, I had Infy, the standard IT large cap, I wanted a mid cap IT, bit non standardā€¦ Thus LTTS.

Valuation is a googly for me honestly. Page, ALL, LTTS etc I thought are fairly valued in comparison to growth or in consequence to correction. But market thinks otherwise and all are falling down even further.

On a lighter note ALL is falling as if there will be no trucks on highways and Pageā€¦:joy::joy:

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In my opinion, one should check if the thesis based on which initial investment was done still stands good. Also stocks that have fallen might fall even more. So, have some kind of plan if there is further correction. Average down gradually.

Eg- You might have bought stock X expecting 20% growth for next 10 years. Say in recent few quarters it turned out to be 10%. Do you believe that it would rebound to 20% again or 10% is the new normal? If 10% is the new normal, you might expect that there is chance of further Y% correction. Think in terms of probability. Think of a range of outcome and their probability and what should be your plan of action in each case.

Disc: I am not a registered financial advisor. The above comment is based on my thought process while considering averaging down.

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Learn to lose well. Scrutinise your losers for avoidable mistakes. In addition, when you were initiating the position, you need to decide what to do if stock falls x%, until where to add and where to start cutting your position. At present, you should be acting according to your plan, otherwise you will only react emotionally which will always lead to worst outcome.

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  1. Try to bring down the number of stocks.
  2. Be invested for long term (1-2 yrs). I think you would get very satisfying returns.
  3. If looking at mutual funds, try to look at small cap funds of ICICI Pru, reliance, Franklin, HDFC, Aditya Birla etc. Small caps funds would give better returns in next 2 yrs than large cap ones imho.

All the best.

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I would say you are lucky that you have stocks which balance each other out. This is purely due to your diversification. In last 3 months, concentrated portfolios from the storied investors are also down between 10-30%. Thatā€™s the nature of the market. Such times make one believe the true meaning of famous words of John Maynard Keynes ā€˜Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solventā€™

I believe you have good stocks, maybe bit more for my liking. You may want to prune that a bitā€¦(average out). It is difficult to decide what is good entry price as ā€œgoodā€ or ā€œbadā€ is always decided with hindsight. So one never knows while buying. This is the time to ā€œwaitā€. Only problem is nobody know how long?

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this should be your portfolio based on your picks.

  1. Page
  2. Ashok Leyland
  3. HDFC Life
  4. Abbott
  5. 3M
  6. HDFC Bank
  7. HDFC
  8. Bajaj Finance
  9. Pidilite
  10. Asian Paints
  11. HUL (you have GSK already so that should be fine)
  12. ITC
  13. Nestle
  14. HDFC AMC
  15. LTTS (already holding)

I have added a few more cos based on your investing style. Since you dont mind sacrificing returns for 2-3-4 years due to high valuations. Based on that I have removed companies that arent the pedigree of nestle, asian etc:
If you take valuation risk on such companies then you are effectively taking a risk and forgoing returns since it is mostly discounted. In companies like Nestle etc even if you are wrong on valutions, no issues. Simply hold on and wait.

You can keep 10% for trading/opportunistic bets if you want.

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Above looks a nice portfolio. @dumboinvestor appreciate the simplicity and clarity of ur thought in prunning!

This initiative is really appreciated dumboinvestor. In certain cases, handholding may required for new investors specifically who hasnā€™t seen the 2008 / 2009 carnage or who are new to the market. The above is a general comment and not intended against homemaker. In fact, I really appreciate her learning process as we are all here to learn.

I just wanted to add that all these stocks / picks suggested by dumboinvestor are solid names with strong parentage. When an investor is putting his / her hard earned money, just pause for a moment and try to think like a private equity guy what would one get by putting the money into this company. As we are not private equity guys, we canā€™t forsee 5x - 10x kind of return or cannot undertake all the rigorous risk factors they would consider; but if your investment can guarantee sound sleep at night, that should be enough for an individual investor / shareholder. Another test would be to make sure that whoever runs the business of the company you hold, still the business would do well.

While there are 15 stocks, depending upon the risk profile, one can invest in 6 / 8 / 10 most high conviction stocks. I would say the key is to select the most conviction stocks based on oneā€™s analysis / circle of competence (no need to put money in all these 15 names unless you want a fairly diversified portfolio with 15 stocks). One can also take a few bets in small / midcaps stocks which could do extremely well. This is the approach I am following for the past few years in the market. See the returns Vinati Organics has generated in the last 3 years (whopping 333%ā€¦!) So, in hindsight all looks fine and if one canā€™t find such kind of names early, just SIP in names from the above list.

Coming specifically to the stocks, majority of them are really sound names which would qualify for ā€˜buy and holdā€™ at least for the next 10 years. Personally, I would disagree on one name, i.e. Ashok Leyland. I wonā€™t invest in Ashok Leyland but would consider names such as Kotak Bank if one wants more weightage in financials or Bata in the consumption space (probably not at this price level but after a meaningful correction) or may look into Honeywell Automation, the Indian subsidiary of NASDAQ listed Honeywell International.

We are all familiar with Kotak bank and the returns it has generated over the decades. Also note that the AMC / broking business are not listed at the moment. Uday Kotak is under pressure to reduce his stake in Kotak bank and this could be an overhang at the moment. Otherwise, it looks solid as a rock. Similarly, there is no need for an introduction on Bata, how they changed themselves and become the leading player. See the products they have recently launched in women wear / athleisure. See how they are protecting the customer base and pricing strategy thus not losing to Sketchers (whose products are known for comfort at a higher price band). Regarding Honeywell, I came across a few articles and based on my quick look, it looks like a solid bet with good parentage. Note that Honeywell US has been in business for more than 100 years and if Honeywell India can provide all the technologies / products of the parent in India, then that would be fantastic. As I am not techie nor an engineer, slowly grasping the business at the moment. Anybody, who has looked into Honeywell or whoever has the circle of competence into Honeywellā€™s business, please share your thoughts.

Interview by Honeywell India, MD in 2018

Disclosure - Holds a few stocks from the above list. Also, I am conscious of the fact that Ashok Leyland might have been included in the list by dumboinvestor just because Homemaker currently holds it.

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Kotak, Bata and Honeywell sounds interesting. Kotak is better choice than indusind which I hold. Bata is a classic consumption stock and a super brand. Honeywell is US MNC, with recent great deals on smart cities projects.

Aside to what dumboinvestor has shared is simple, impacting and good.

All said and done, I should look beyond stock picking. Its no doubt very important but is one of the many elements of investment. Equal focus should be on operation and maintenance of the portfolioā€¦however, I wonder whether activity will add any value especially in the current market situation.

I donā€™t like Maruti due to itā€™s nature of business. Overall, these car companies not make more than in single digits (if at all itā€™s profitable). Also, Iā€™m in O&G for my daily bread - with all conviction feeling that a disruption is in cards. If i were you, i will come out of Maruti (Iā€™m holding Maruti, waiting for an exit price, looking for a bigger fool). Any MNC is good due to their governance.

Any one tracking Honeywell Automation.ā€¦Very impressive rise in profits. However price has gone up significantly. Welcome thoughts on valuation @ PE 56

Source Screenerā€¦

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Marginally overvalued for now but all business lines are looking bullish. Good investment for coming 5 years and a long term hold for portfolio.

When did MSIL make a loss? In fact it has been very consistent in making double digits PAT growth. Cash making and negative days in working capital. The platforms they use have a payback period of less than 3 years making them the fastest company to break even. Also they milk some platforms for decades which is unheard of in any car company. Did you know how Omni and wagon R had paid back? They milked their customers far too long than any car company had done. However platform lifetime has reduced now but Maruti still has the quickest payback period. Heatect platform had been so widely deployed and has already broken even. All these makes it a cash spinner rather than capex heavy. If you look at capex in the last 10 years, it is clear that they just need 2 quarter earnings to meet their 1.5 year capex. No other Auto company is able to do that. Their Capex (NFA+WIP change+Dep) was 26k crores in the last 10 years. The FCF to capex is 1.7 times. FCF to CFO is 43%. Their SGR is at 20% and they can easily remain debt free even with such high double digit growth.

Revenue CAGR (%)

  • 10 Years 14.58
  • 5 Years 12.74
  • 3 Years 11.50

EBITDA CAGR (%)

  • 10 Years 23.70
  • 5 Years 18.35
  • 3 Years 6.27

PAT CAGR (%)

  • 10 Years 20.28
  • 5 Years 22.64
  • 3 Years 12.91
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Hi VP,

Its been quite a while since my last post. Infact I donā€™t check portfolio regularly. Somewhere I found enormous peace in inactivity. I was rather involved more in border tensions, Elections and everything other than investing. :grinning:

To my surprise without doing much, my portfolio is nearly 3 % up. Its in line with major indices. Detailed portfolio update will share shortly.

What is indeed interesting, is the benefit of picking quality stocks. Not getting into all the intricacies of quality investing, but what it did for me atleast is, takes emotion out of investing. Quality stocks may go down or up basis market, indices, sentiments, over valuation or momentary poor quarter. But it doesnot cause unnecessary panic or emotional turmoil and thus premature buy sell calls. Views of fellow boarders welcome.

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Yes,indeed.As they say,quality never goes out of fashion.Just as class scores over crass,so quality in the long run scores over trash. Quality is the ā€œLambhi dorh ka ghora !ā€
In the ET March 4 edition, in an interesting article"Alpha hard to find,Funds stay Focused", the emphasis on quality stocks and good governance,by Angel Broking fund managers, has been highlighted.

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Thatā€™s great to hear and itā€™s also a time to book some profits In my honest opinion.

Portfolio update: Portfolio is up as major indices are moving up. Returns in sync with Sensex/Nifty but lesser than Midcap indices. Top performers are Bajaj Finance & Yes Bank, a clear example of Quality & Value buy. Top Laggards are Sterlite & Ashok Leyland- a clear case of caught up in a cyclical. However the ranks change frequently, barring few predictable performers / non performers. No Buy/Sell as I am inclined towards holding. May look for some buys in midcap/small cap but each less than max 3% of portfolio. Kind of POC- Trial approach. Feedback welcome !

S.NO Company Name Profit/Loss % Weightage %
1 INFOSYS LTD 14% 8%
2 L&T TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED 1% 8%
3 MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD -1% 7%
4 PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD -10% 6%
5 PIDILITE INDUSTRIES LTD 20% 6%
6 3M INDIA LIMITED 14% 6%
7 YES BANK LIMITED 44% 6%
8 BAJAJ FINANCE LIMITED 49% 5%
9 INDUSIND BANK LIMITED 16% 4%
10 AVANTI FEEDS LTD 9% 4%
11 HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CO 14% 4%
12 ABBOTT INDIA LIMITED -8% 4%
13 GLAXOSMITHKLINE CONSUMER HEALT -1% 4%
14 HDFC LIFE INSURANCE COM LTD -3% 4%
15 GRUH FINANCE LIMITED -8% 4%
16 ASHOK LEYLAND LTD -16% 3%
17 KENNAMETAL INDIA LIMTIED -1% 3%
18 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD 9% 3%
19 HDFC BANK LIMITED 10% 3%
20 MERCK LIMITED 24% 3%
21 STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED -32% 3%
22 GMM PFAUDLER LTD -3% 2%
NA OVERALL PORTFOLIO 6% 100%
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