That’s an interesting opinion. The factory outlet pics do look similar.
The economics also would need to be similar.
That’s an interesting opinion. The factory outlet pics do look similar.
Hi Ayush, I have some doubts from you, can you give your perspective on the same. It would be of great help. I think you may have met the management and discussed these issues already?
The business seems to be going good, but there are some things which need clarification.
One is of genesis acquisition (equity dilution). Even after diluting the equity and increasing the promoters shareholding, some people from the promoter group have sold roughly 3-4%?
Comission (As already discussed in latest concall) + promoters salary roughly 30% of profits, If you include dividends this number goes to 35-40% of Net profit…This clearly shows that the intention of may be old management is questionable? Even capital allocation seems poor?
Even Mr. Shuja Mirza seems to be the game changer, but still other people have a lot of holding in the company, whose intentions are questionable?
Even Mr Shuja and Mr Faraz Mirza are not directors…As it would be impossible to pay them salaries as directors as the company already breaches the 10% limit?
I agree each company has its own pros and cons…But sometimes one con can damage the entire system…I want to know your viewpoint to get a different perspective.
You can even message me for the same.
It would be a great learning experience.
This model is taken from abroad where you keep diff shoe size at the display model only so that guy doesn’t have to run back every time to store to bring diff shoe size. Not only it saves time, it increases the customer experience.
Ayush how do you overlook significant related party transaction and promoters taking lot of money out by means of high salary and commissions . What is view on promoters if you have done scuttle-but. Right now they are in mode of opening stores and this like channel stuffing , we need check same store sales growth.
Brands have no moats unless you have made luxury brand (Aspirational ) , only good part is they are manufacturer of leather shoes but going apparels is big stretching other brands are launching their own shoes.
Shift from leather export to domestic, Branded, and Multi-Category (Leather+Casual+Sports+Clothing) sales seems to be an attempt to pull through a forward Integration, which is a good idea as retailers earn, I feel, the maximum margins. As compared to the super reputed brands such as Adidas, Nike, and Reebok, the business offers a known, foreign sounding named brand at economical prices. I see that as a Low Cost Advantage, if not moat.Going forward I would monitor Revenue Growth, Profitability, and ballooning Working capital (Inventory & Debtor Days) as well as Debt. As evident from the financials of last 5 years, business seems to be pretty comfortable to service debt amount of around 400Cr.
1- Exp. Promoters, who are educated in Leather/Shoe industry.
2- Established Brand - Red Tape.
3- Integrated Operations, with an in-house tannery.
4- Healthy Financial Profile.
5- Promoter Stake at 70%.
1- Working Capital Intensity
2- Geographical Concentration: - UK, 70% of export Rev.-Forex risk, Pound.
3- Customer Concentration: -45% of total exports are to Mirza UK.
4- Board consists of too many family members who are Paid a lot and charging hefty commissions for bank guarantees.
As long as I get a chance to pay reasonable price, which I can control, I am okay to live with the fact that the Board consists of too many family members, who are Paid more than the norm via salary or Commission for bank guarantees, as that is out of my control.
Could anyone help to understand what is Bills Discounted (Note 28 on Page 88 of FY17 AR )under contingent liabilities as I understand that it’s considered as debt from the banks?
Disc: Invested recently.
Hi Amit and @hm0293,
Yes, the points mentioned have been the concerns and one shouldn’t ignore them. I’m not advocating the stock, I just shared some of the interesting changes that I noticed going on in the company.
It interested me as there have been several changes in the way of working of the company and product launches and given the huge tailwind due to consumption boom in India, the potential is big. Its tough to get a domestic spending play at reasonable valuations.
People have asked about channel stuffing - I don’t think that would be happening as almost all the new stores are company owned. As per accounting, they can’t recognize sale till it actually happens. Yes, the inventory has increased sharply and its a concern.
It could well be that going forward the profitability gets hit (due to bad economics in large stores) or inventory write-offs happen or promoters take people for ride etc etc. Retail expansion is tough and competitive. Everyone should be cautious and do his homework.
Thanks ayush got your viewpoint.
Thanks Ayush , Off course the forum is not for recommending stocks and any one who invest is responsible for his own investments. i wanted to understand your thinking how do you view these risk especially on promoters. Business and execution risk is some how easy to take but how does one evaluate promoters and corporate governance (Commission, high related party transaction ) and seeing what they are doing ignore these .
Do you do these by 1 % allocation or something ( Money you are ok to loose) or you are of view that promoters will eventually get the logic when business becomes big . or these guys have family reputation to protect so they may be taking huge money out but will not cheat
While I don’t know the intricacies of retail store layouts, I work with one of the brands in this industry. The store layouts are similar not only across India but even in the US. I have visited competitions outside India and similar layouts are being adopted across the industry. I still don’t believe that layout is that critical of a point that impacts strategy.
As rightly called out by Ayush, what warrants more discussion, is their strategy to open big stores. That strategy for now, has been limited to big brands and Red Tape following the same is actually gutsy and a gamble for sure. If executed well, might be a game changer from brand point of view. The brand that I work with has significant improvement in recent years owing to us closing the small stores and opening the big doors, but red tape has mid segment products where margins aren’t likely to be so high to support these big doors. One of the reasons for us to open big doors was that our premium products needed premium experience for consumers which we were not able to provide in small doors. Digital Channel lacks the touch and feel thats important to satisfy the consumer of premium products (10k+ price point) and hence it made sense for us.
Thanks @ayushmit for providing the store count. It’s interesting to note that between 2015 and 2016, they added 10 exclusive RedTape stores and 10 shop in shop for a total of 20 additional shops. However their cities covered went up from 30 to 69 so they added 20 shops in 39 cities? Numbers don’t add up unless they also closed some shop in some cities.
Correct way to analyze a retail operation is to calculate same store sales growth (repeat purchase) and sales per square foot (utilization) but relevant information is not available at least in the annual report. Another important metric is whether the growth is funded by internal accrual or external capital. Company can grow sales because capital cost is funded by franchiser and working capital is funded by borrowing for inventory. So this is appears to be a borrowed growth and organic growth may be less than headline growth.
Upcoming IPO of TCNS looks better in comparison.
Online sales of footwear could be a possible reason where you can cover more cities without opening physical stores.
Bata in the 2016 & 2017 AR has started reporting online sales numbers , both volume and value. The 2018 numbers should provide further insight. Online retailing of footwear is another tailwind to the industry. In 2016, Bata sold 3.8 lac pairs for 36 cr online and in 2017 it sold 6.3 lac pairs for 69 crores giving its topline a lifeline. I think it will play an important role going forward in the footwear sector though realizations are much less compared to offline brick and mortar.
Some other data points to consider on employee, revenue & margins
Unlike Bata which has a declining employee count indicating a shift to franchise & digitally enabled from own stores, Mirza has increased employee strength in the same period indicating that it still owns a majority of its stores during its recent expansion where it can have some control on the price realizations.
If you look at the revenue per employee of Bata its almost twice that of Mirza but operating margins are significantly less , indicating the loss in realizations due to spreading of stores all over the country. So how Mirza grows is going to a good plot to follow.
I think large format stores are good in retail as the operating expense ratios are low and there is better control on realizations- an extreme case being sree leathers with a 2.07 cr revenue per employee and a solid operating margins despite being a low cost player.
Relaxo seems to have found a balance although its products are different. I think there are a lot of sub plots that are worth following here.
They have been closing stores down as well, confirmed on conf calls. The way it was explained in one of the conf calls was this -
Geo spread of stores is not uniform across India. In some pockets like Mumbai their presence is actually quite limited. Bulk of the stores are in North India
Some EBO’s were located in large cities which weren’t meeting numbers, they are being closed down since 12-18 months (effectively 6-12 months after a store is opened) is a reasonable time frame to be able to judge whether the store location is optimum or not in terms of tapping into catchment areas. Stores in Tier 2 and Tier 3 have typically done better as compared to those in metros and Tier 1 cities
While the exact count was not mentioned on the conf calls, it has been confirmed that they have been closing down stores as well. Even the adverts they do are very targeted and not broad based, they are very catchment area and customer segment specific
Do listen to the Q3 FY2018 conf call where Shuja spent a couple of mins elaborating on this - their approach to how they evaluate and keep stores running/close down
@Yogesh_s on TCNS, the brand that gets them more revenue is ‘W’. They don’t have trademark for it and Wrangler has already opposed them using the W logo. So it is in trademark dispute and if they lose the case, it will have a huge negative impact on TCNS.
They also sell through Third Party stores.
I recently bought a RedTape pair in Rajasthan through a Metro Shoes outlet
Does brexit will make an impact in export market for this company I think Europe is a big market for them and even Tata motors has written a letter to British president that they loss billions due to brexit…?
Yes the Brexit exit had affected the Export business by 50%.
But slowly the export business has started showing some progress, as mentioned by company in the q4 con call
additinal import duties lived on import of textiles. fibre by govt
need to see , if they are importing shoes / textiles from outside…then this would hurt their margins
In the last conference it was clear that all sports shoes and casual shoes (other than leather) are being imported from China.
Affected textile products include: woven fabrics, knitted garments, dresses, trousers, suits, carpets, and baby clothes.
I think this will impact their nascent business in garments.
@ayushmit given the big fall it does become more attractive.
Gst on shoes upto 1000 is 5% now it will also benefit the company in gaining market share…
But as far as i can see they don’t have too many shoes in that price range. Almost all shoes are upwards of 1000(even BondStreet). Doubt if this will help the business.