That seems to true, market seems to be dis-hearted with lesser growth. FY 18 is a long call. But I expect it to clock 16 rs for the current year. And 21-22 rs for the FY 16.
Disc: invested. This post should in no way be considered as a buy/sell recommendation. Investors need to do their due diligence before taking any decision.
True dinesh. Seems we will stuck in this 400 - 500 range for a few more months unless a big investor comes in / the pace of growth is back to 25% top and bottom line .
This is one stock where i invested a lot of time and energy .
Hence feeling frustrated .
Sometimes Mr Market test patience. Is not investing is about being patient. Better to take some time off and get refreshed. If you look at the shareholding pattern, it is same for all the segments for last 6 months. With the everyday shares getting traded and delivered that means there is lot churning in the segments itself. and it is sometimes opportunity cost and frustration because people sell something.
Disc: invested
Mr. Poddar Interview on NDTV Profit
what a ridiculously dumb, disrespectful journalist who hasnt done his homework wasting Mr. Poddarâs time! Its frustrating.
But Hats-Off to Mr.Suresh Kumar Poddarâs humble nature and down-to-earth attitude.
I wish these TV channel guys do bit more research before questioning someone of Mr.Poddarâs stature.
Just listened to concall .My readings
1)Mayur is expected to have a good FY 16 and beyond as opp size is increasing.
2)M&M has selected them for their upcoming 7 new models
3)So has Ford and Isuzu
4)5 programs in lucrative OEM exports market to be operational in this year
5)Besides old customers Ford & Chrysler Mayur has also been selected by GM India for a specific model the production for which is slated to begin In 2nd half of this year.
6)General export market for which whole of world is the market is doing v well.Eg Saudi Arabia has started giving good business in last 3-4 months.This segment expected to do v well
7)Mayur to going to focus on sofa furnishing market all over India as realisations and margins are very high in this B2C segment.Distributor has been appointed in Delhi and will be appointed in other cities.Co is going to establish Mayur as brand in furnishing and car seats and spend heavily on ads.This B2C foray may lead to further rerating of the stock and needs to be seriously studied.
8)At long last PU Plant permission expected by June 15.The 2 lines over her will add 250 Cr to topline
9)6th line not running at full capacity but can be easily ramped up depending on demand .Provision is there for 7th line too depending on program roll out.Company is already having 60 bighas of land the land usage change for which is expected by June 15 which will take care of PU plant requirement.Waste water usage approval is also expected in next 2-3 months.
Footwear business is slowing down as co customers are focused on chappals and sandals segments in 200-500 rs range.
At Mayur we have one of the most ethical promoter who will take care of minority shareholder.Mr Poddar has built Mayur from scratch and is bottom line focused.
Views Invited
Nice anaysis vivek .
I think wee can expect an EPS of 20 by FY 17 [ CONSERVATIVELY] .
This quarter has also been muted for the company.
Pricing Pressure and Margins
3% reduction in RM cost has lead to 4-5% reduction in prices? Poddarji has mentioned that they canât go and hike price for ever 3% or so increase in RM. Domestic Auto manufacturers also squeeze margins. It is a good business but very laborious and maybe a B+ business than A business (in VP business quality parlance).
Poddarji has also mentioned that they are going to concentrate on where the margins are high (exports, B2C furnishing, etc.) Shift from unorganized to organized is also not going to happen in 2-3 years time and will depend on consumers preference to buy more from retail outlets & online than say buy at the roadside stall.
Growth and valuations
15% growth will happen if most of positives enlisted by @Vivek_6954 pans out and that too in FY17 or at best from H2FY16. In all probability, Q1FY16 is also going to be muted since April was not a good month in footwear sales.
Why pay 30x for 15% growth? There are businesses like Cera, Page, Symphony, Ajanta, Kitex, Eicher, GRUH which has near term earning visibility of 20-25+% and of course Mr. Market has priced these stocks to perfection. Even companies like Sundaram Finance, Amara Raja, Diviâs Lab seem to be better placed than Mayur in near term.
A bet on Mayur for 4-5 years would be that per meter realization is north of Rs 300 and growing 5-10% every year. Revenue mix of say:
25% - B2C businesses
30% - Export and Export OEMs
20% - Domestic OEMs
25% - Footwear
Views invited.
@ Ashwin . The big question is what beyond F16 . Mayur has an amazing track record over the last 5 years and a little bit of economic revival should help in accelerate growth rates > 15.
Stocks like symphony, page etc are 50x+ in PE. The qn really is- how much should u pay for them ?
Good to see that Malabar fund has increased its stake in Mayur Uniquoters as per the latest shareholding report
http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/E07A9B79_921C_49DA_A459_CDC4AFC34E38_105726.pdf
Annual report sounds very positive about the prospects in 2015-16. 30%+ guidance for all except for the footwear which also the managements says is seeing improvement.
A negative in AR is increase in remuneration to promoters at 20% versus 16% increase in profits.
Received email yesterday.
Read that in the context of a ~35% increase in Employee Benefits & Expenses (18.39 cr to 24.81 cr) ~~ pg 82 of the AR.
The bug-bear is footwear.
In FY15, I suspect they lost some of the business with their footwear customers.
The management prefers to be silent, and is letting us form the perception that the footwear industry slowed down⌠I doubt that is the case - considering Bata, Relaxo, Liberty all grew their sales by at least 25% in FY15.
The management is little bit hiding the true picture. I wonder if they can win back all the footwear sales in FY16? Will they have to compromise margins to do that?
Any data that is pointing out that I am seeing this wrong?
