ValuePickr Forum

Manpasand Beverages Ltd :- High growth potential stock

You are missing… I attached Selan Exploration link…

It says same thing… Different auditors…

So quarterly audit process is this only I guess…

Thanks.
Language used is challenging - ‘… has not disclosed the information required to be disclosed in terms of Regulation 33 of SEBI…’

Read the second line which says “…nothing has come to our attention, that causes us to believe,… has not disclosed the information that needs to be disclosed”
Correct English which says as for as they have seen everything is in order and has been disclosed.Two negatives make a positive.

Mouth shut for BTV

Source : Twitter CFO Abhishek Singh

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Discl: Not invested in the company but closely track development for improving understanding.

While you make agree or disagree, but increase in working capital is generally first sign of problem. Even company acknowledge its increase in working capital. So in that context, what is “Mouthshut” for Bloomberg article? In fact, first time I listen to view point that after auditor resignation dealer ask for credit period. Generally dealer has best understanding of working of company and its credit worthiness. If dealer is asking for high credit period, it is a bad sign in my opinion.

The limited point is this forum is for collective contribution for improving understanding of everyone and usage of correct launguage and word is most important. I would not like to take either side but please control emotion and use proper words. In my limited understanding, the managment reply is more of self goal and mouth shut.

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@dd1474
Thank you Dhiraj for your explanation on

  • increase in working capital being negative and
  • increase in credit days also as a red flag

I will be monitoring this closely as per the explanation given in the replies… (Expecting inventory and receivables going down by March 2019)

And yeah… apologies for using mouth shut …it indeed went out of emotions… Because I thought management giving out a detailed reply for all the questions raised is a positive sign…

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Current prices already price in the corporate governance related issues so these red flag doesn’t really make a difference.
What is not in the price is a bankruptcy/business shutdown. Since there is no debt in books only way it can happen is that company turns out to be a total fraud. But there is enough signs that there are plants and their product sell (Parle partnership).
So, I really don’t see much downside from here. Question is whether there is an upside?

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Appreciate your reply. Let us all of us try to control our emotion and make this thread more “investor friendly” in true sense.

Thanks for taking my comment in Right spirit. :slightly_smiling_face:

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Looking at teh Rs. 800 Cr. capex including CWIP in fixed assets, it seems like the comapny’s FA turnover is much lower than those of the peers. that’s the equivalent of the cost of a rafale jet.for the record, dynamatic which makes high precision aircraft parts which have low FA turnover has a 800 cr. FA for a Rs. 1400 cr. turnover. of course, its only a mental model on a nominal scale. I do know it costs not more than Rs. 30-40 cr. to set up a Rs. 200-300 cr. topline juice business based on private unlisted companies.

For what is a juice plant, a Rs. 800 Cr. FA looks very very high. Comparing it with dabur/parle, FA turns are at half of the other two (that said, their FA costs were historical and hence low). Also, the reason for removing distributors seems flaky - infact, collections are a better head ache than margin claw back with large customers.

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I was comparing with varun beverages, Varun has a 4350 cr fixed asset for a top line of 4850 cr. Manpasand has a 650cr fixed asset for a top line of 1000cr.(source screener.in ) which seems to be inline with the industry.

It would be great if we could manage to view fin. statements for Coca Cola India, Parle Agro ( Maaza, Frooti)etc. Is there a possibility? Not sure how to access Pvt Ltd fin statements/reports.

A few observations:

-Even though the mango drink business is seasonal, shouldn’t the degree of seasonality matter for different brands?

-On a hot day in summer, working/traveling on roads with considerable heat exposure, you wouldn’t be specific regarding your mango drink at a local shop. Perhaps the drink given to you would be dependent on the margin the retailer has on different brands/inventory levels etc.
So, summers aren’t bad for lesser known brands as such. Rather than brand, the efficiency of distribution channels and margins given to distribution entities would be crucial.

-But, for a product like Mango Sip with almost no brand recall, wouldn’t it be very difficult to have sales in the off-season(non-summer) as a percentage comparison with Frooti or Maaza?

-And hence wouldn’t the degree of seasonality be high for it? And hence, wouldn’t the capacity requirement be high to manage the summer demands but the overall annual capacity utilization be low because of the higher degree of seasonality? If that’s so, the receivables/inventory numbers will always be on the higher side till it gets a good brand recall/sizable distribution?

Also, found some industry info in Manpasand’s Red Herring Prospectus draft - https://www.sebi.gov.in/sebi_data/attachdocs/1416998361433.pdf
Thought this could help this forum.

Disc: I have not verified the above info by actually visiting and talking to different retailers in different cities. Interested but not invested yet.

Do share your views.

Hence, the asset turnover would be suffering. The sales for March and June quarter are usually more than double the sales for September and December.

What it seems from the mgmt commentary and capex is that they have a lot of demand available to be serviced in the summer and the capacities are being increased to meet that.
The problem is off-season, they clearly struggle for sales.

The capacities are going to increase in the coming years, the seasonal sales are going to double in approx two years if there is actually the claimed demand for the production produced. How they manage there off-season would determine the asset turnover going forward.

For the third quarter ended December 31, 2018:
Revenue from operations for the quarter ended December 31st, 2018 stood at Rs. 163.52 crore, as compared to Rs. 143.13 crore in the same period last year.
Manpasand’s Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) in Q3FY19 stood at Rs. 36.89 crore, up 38.01%. The company’s EBITDA margin improved from 18.01% in Q3FY18 to 22.24 % in Q3FY19.

For the nine months ended December 31, 2018:
Revenue from operations for 9MFY19 ended December 31 st, 2018 stood at Rs. 672.40 crore, as compared to Rs. 570.41 crore in the same period last year.

Manpasand’s Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) in Nine months ended December 31, 2018 stood at Rs. 133.42 crore, up 27.56%.

Not a bad set nos. Particularly happy to see better disclosures in the slide deck presentation. Also good to see the PE backer (SAIF Partners) sticking with them without selling down any of their stake. They had said they would get a Big 4 audit firm at the time of the AGM last year . Hopefully that happens soon. Would be a major catalyst.

Disc : Invested at 117

Q3 result is very good but does this justify the recent really in the stock price ? 80% in just 11 days is too much I believe …

Of course not…it doesn’t justify.

But was the 85-90% fall justified when Delloite left?

I don’t think that was justified either…

This is just speculation which it made fall and again speculation which it made rise…

Both sides nothing has been proven.

And rise in price was not immediately after results… Consumer goods as a sector has picked up recently and with summer in mind… Manpasand hit a double jackpot.

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New Doc 2019-05-24 18.52.02.pdf (295.2 KB)
Press release from GST department

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Final Nail in the Coffin? Looks like endgame

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