Manpasand Beverages Ltd :- High growth potential stock

(yesudeep) #234

Yes, the news looks like it was just the trigger. Existing shareholders
realized that the market would now start a correction and decided to
reduce their holdings. The taste of the product has nothing to do with
the Sloan ratio or the accrual buildup, however. :slight_smile:

Everything about Manpasand is diluted, even the drink itself. JK. :stuck_out_tongue:

(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #235

Worth a look…

(paresh.sarjani1) #236

Nicely explained and clarity of thought

(bkasal) #237

Typically Funds follow herd mentality to play Safe.
That’s why see in current market for MBL.

I am still trying to identify what exact Deloitte’s concern to resign (delay or not sharing info). Also, what is revenue/PBT impact of it, if any?

Does anyone has insight in it?


(contactmith) #238

Their main product is fruits up which is totally diffrent from the other carbonated drinks as it is real fruit drink with carbonates. In central suburbs of mumbai i have been seeing advertisement posters of manpasand fruits up and mango sip…But i could not find their fruits up drinks any where (check with three four juice drink sellers) . Recently saw their mango sip product in D mart but fruits up was not available in Dmart (Mumbai Central subidha) as well.
Manpasand had spent lots of money in advertising their product FruitsUP by ropping in actress tapasee pannu, but it is not available in three four places where i checked.

(yesudeep) #239

I’d say it’s a good attempt at a cover up and then blaming the credibility of
the analyst from Kotak. I came up with the same conclusions as written in the article that
the “sell-side” analyst came up with without even reading that report and am in no way
related to the analyst or Kotak. Does that make me “uncreditworthy” as well? I just read the
numbers and put 2 and 2 together. You only have to use a little bit of common
sense to determine what a declining ROIC means: this business is not employing
capital efficiently. If you wish to risk your capital when the ROIC is
in decline, no one can stop you. Numbers don’t lie if you look at them carefully.
Still, if you wish to buy this business, I’d recommend waiting for cash to show up, not
just EBITDA.

I don’t know but if I’d own a kirana store, I’d care about how much cash
actually enters and remains in my galla after expenses, not how much
I am being promised will be collected before paying interest, taxes, and other expenditure.
And after 5 years of borrowing money to run the store,
if cash still doesn’t show up in my pocket and we still need to keep borrowing
money to run the store, I’d seriously reconsider the correctness of what
my kirana storekeeper is doing. EBITDA se dukaan nahi chalti
hai. Rokda chahiye.

The unfortunate fact is people like stories more than numbers. Give
them a good mythical story any day. They’ll prove 2+2 is not equal to 4
just to keep the story alive.

Disclosure: Be advised, I don’t suffer from commitment bias because I don’t own
the stock.

(mak2569) #241

Manpasand is not there in the futures market.So how could have the smarter one’s shorted and made tons of money?

(rajeshaaidu) #243

Dear Deep,

Does that make me “uncreditworthy” as well? NO, absolutely not! But does it make you “creditworthy?” just read few lines and hope it will clarify what you or any other analyst are trying to do: “The hindsight bias is one of the most prevailing fallacies of all. We can aptly describe it as the ‘I told you so’ phenomenon: in retrospect, everything seems clear and inevitable. If a CEO becomes successful due to fortunate circumstances he will, looking back, rate the probability of his success a lot higher than it actually was.

Please don’t use this kind of offensive language while discussion, “You only have to use a little bit of common sense to determine what a declining ROIC means.” How you have concluded that nobody knows these kiddies things like ROCE? Do you understand that these are lag indicators and not lead indicators? Whereas, most of the returns in the market are front ended. Infosys, Lupin and most of the Pharma companies ROCE has declined in past 3 years: so, they all are bad companies or going to die? ROCE is a fluctuating thing! People have made fortune out of declining ROCE in cyclical. According to you, “all professors of finance should be great investor and historians will be in place of Buffet, Soros and Lynch.” These all ratios and numbers are helping verb and acting as guidepost in dark; in investing, actually main verb is missing and everybody is searching for it- ha ha.

Regarding your example of Kirana store: just answer one question- First Kirana shop owner use to put money to build the business and draw customers, or he use to get money in the galla? Even Kirana shops use to take 3-5 years to break even and here you are talking about such a big business. If you are not comfortable with growth investing then put your money in any of the blue chip companies. Apne apne funde hae bhai! Don’t ridicule other. You are free to put your contradictory ideas and it will be great help for everybody on this forum including me, but come up with solid numbers- as boasted by you that numbers are everything. Do you think there is rocket science involved in finding out that Manpasand is not having positive cash flow? Don’t try to create authority bias by quoting Amit or anybody; if I will quote Ramdeo or Navneet Munot: will I become more correct? I will be happiest person if you will prove me wrong, but not like this.

It is not unfortunate fact that people like stories more than numbers: Even HDFC bank or Infosys were stories when it has started. It is just post facto rationalization that you or anybody has envisaged the future based on the numbers and when your great numbers are there prices will be nonsensical. Most of the money in the market has been made by stories and with numbers you can make 10%-12% return. So, please don’t try to be sarcastic and too much pedantic as even Rakesh bhai don’t use to claim that he knows at the time of investment that it will be a great investment or not. Here, you are suffering from Survivorship Bias: Survivorship bias can become especially pernicious when you become a member of the ‘winning’ team. Even if your success stems from pure coincidence, you’ll discover similarities with other winners and be tempted to mark these as ‘success factors’. However, if you ever visit the graveyard of failed individuals and companies, you will realize that its tenants possessed many of the same traits that characterize your success.

Yes, you don’t suffer from commitment bias, but you are suffering from the father of all fallacies, the confirmation bias. Astrologers and economists operate on the same principle. They utter prophecies so vague that any event can substantiate them: ‘In the coming weeks you will experience sadness,’ or ‘in the medium term, the pressure on the dollar will increase.’ But what is the medium term? What will cause the dollar to depreciate? And, depreciation measured against what – gold, yen, pesos, wheat, residential property in Manhattan, the average price of a hot dog?

Discuss and find out mistakes: nobody can be a greater friend than people who use to criticise. Discuss as good friend respecting other forum members don’t try to become authority on the subject because market is a very harsh place and even Harvard graduate use to get failed here and Dhotiwalas use to make hell out of money!

Thanks! You can write me in my message box as I will not reply anything regarding this post because this discussion will simply waste everybody time and effort.

(yesudeep) #244

Okay, sir. I wish nobody any hurt. Cheers.

(paresh.sarjani1) #245

Recognistion by Neilson

Link to article

(Susindar) #246

Looks a good result. It has overtaken one of the biggies (Frooti or slice) considering maaza is ahead by a distance. But I did not understand what modern channel means. Is it not the third overall?

(paresh.sarjani1) #247

Modern Channel is Super Markets …hyper markets…
Or you can say Multi Brand Retail Stores

(Shyam) #248

Can anybody confirm this on ground? The whole problem was that their claim was previously not matching with the ground reality.

(paresh.sarjani1) #249

Results date announced…

(vikas sinha) #250

The next board meeting of Manpasand Beverages is to be held on August 2, 2018 for Unaudited Financial Results

(Rohit) #251

Results out - 10% increase in revenue YOY , 1% increase in PAT YOY.

(paresh.sarjani1) #252

I am wondering why it’s down QoQ as June quarter is the strongest for this company…

(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #253

One of the reasons may be early arrival and total coverage of monsoon before scheduled time this year as soft drink sales are directly correlated to ambient temperature.

Another reason may be the huge discounts it’s giving in organized retail stores like DMart and BB to corner marketshare. True picture will emerge only after the volume information is available.

Reasonable result, IMHO.

(paresh.sarjani1) #254

ASM review is every two months…and I believe Manpasand should be out of ASM by 15th -16th August.

Today HEG is out of ASM

(ragsingh0305) #255