Manappuram Finance


(insanemaverick) #392

IMHO, the only number that we need to track here is Ashirwad’s NPA and profitability. If Ashirwad reports even a minor profit this quarter, then this company is headed to 160 for sure. It’s just matter of a couple of more weeks. The numbers should be out by November first week. Rest of the business segments are chugging along fine. The management commentary needs to be tracked carefully regarding growth in Q3 and Q4. It’s just the MFI business, which is acting as a cap on valuations. However, it can be an easy doubler from here in the next 6 months, if growth picks up for Ashirwadh…whichever metric you use, P/B, P/E , Mcap/ AUM…it’s ridiculously cheap. Will be interesting to see how long the market keeps ignoring this gem in the NBFI space. Perhaps the only mispriced bet left right now in the NBFI space, considering the quality of asset book they are building by focussed geographic and product diversification. I am sure the franchise will be valued at somewhere around RS.25000 crores, sometime in 2018. Since this sector has been on an absolute tear last year and most of the companies are trading at elevated valuations, any re-rating for Manappuram can be very Swift. It’s just a question of when now, and not if.

P.S.: I own a substantial position here and hence my views may be biased. Please do your due diligence before playing this wonderful story.


(maheshkumar) #393

Now psu banks will eat the share of all private banks and nbfc as they have lot of liquid cash available to them
So the private bank will correct a lot in short term
Not sure what will happen to gold loan companies


(Susindar) #394

Gold loan and Microfinance are niche areas that both public and private banks stay away from. They have even tried and could not succeed. Manappuram as such targets unbanked segment so I expect the impact to be low. Even for private banks the impact should be minimal until all PSUs blow up the additional capital and get back to old ways.


(Kumar Saurabh) #395

If they knew how to satisfy retail, they would’ve gone to corporates . Infusing capital is easiest thing to do, infusing performance culture is key n there are structural reasons why it won’t happen if assumptions intact.


(maheshkumar) #397

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/manappuram-finance-to-take-up-raising-rs-200-cr-via-pvt-placement-2419501.html

not sure about the impact in this case as psu banks are getting stronger and stronger


(maheshkumar) #398

(amitjain2711) #399

Hi Hitesh,

Manappuram seems to be nicely poised in a symmetrical triangle type of a pattern, good to decent results should give a breakout? Am bit of a novice, but tried my hand at it :

How does it look to you on the charts?


(prash.peru) #401

Is anyone here worried about loan book de-growth over the last few quarters, and the failure of quarterly disbursements in the last few quarters to show growth year-over-year? I understand economic conditions have been tough, but will you want to wait and see decisive signs of a turnaround in the company’s loan-book before committing money? Interested in people’s rationale.


(us121) #402

Today Asirvad Microfinance result is published in Business Standard, kolkata. on page 8. Result is for 6 months combined ending Sep17.

income is shown as 199.6 cr v/s previous yr six months 146.5 Cr.
net profit is shown as -45.7 cr v/s previous yr six months of 27.8 Cr.

for Q1fy18 net profit for Asirvad was - 34.1 Cr. that means they have booked another loss of about 11.6 cr in this qarter. am i correct?

Q1 data from manappuram investor presentation:


(us121) #403

Result from Business standard…


(amitjain2711) #404

#Manappuram #Results #Q2 2017-18 Results.pdf (2.6 MB)

SRC: https://nseindia.com/corporate/Results_07112017164606.zip


(Chirag) #405

Results look very pedestrian …

I am not able figure out the NPA numbers. I did not see them in the PL statement.

Can someone please point the Provisions/Contingencies/Writeoff number to me! Thank you!

Edit:

Provisions are down from 80 crs to 46 crs


(maheshkumar) #406

Asirvad loss narrowing
All other divisions gold ,vehicle and house neutral to good
Next quarter will be intersting
Great company in a sector which is in boom still highly undervalued


(Kumar Saurabh) #407

Though NPA challenges reducing and all numbers related to NPA in terms of day PAR, provisioning encouraging, the key concern is growth missing in core as well as new segments continuously from 3rd quarter. Planning to est 1-2 quarters more for growth to come back. I think may be because company is conservatively not getting into longer duration gold loans were customers have other options. Any insights on this would be appreciated


(amitjain2711) #408

Investor Presentation: ManappuramFinanceLimited.pdf (3.0 MB)

SRC: https://www.researchbytes.com/Manappuram-Finance-Limited-M0120.htm


(rajiv.maskara) #409

In the last concall the management had mentioned that although the tenure of the gold loans are of 3 months duration, but most of them get renewed without any payment happening if the customers pay their interest. So that shouldnt be a concern in my opinion.


(vinoths) #410

Again good set of numbers from Muthoot Finance in Q2 FY18…

Manappuram was struggling since last 4 quarters… Asirvad Microfinance contributes only 8% of overall AUM and that too Q2 FY18 is much better. The key concern is, Why good loan business line is negative to flat in Manappuram when competitor able to show decent growth?

Disc: Invested in Manappuram at lower levels and no trading in last 1 year.

Regards,
Vinoth


#411

Gold Loan AUM - Muthoot marginal decline vs. Manappuram marginal growth Qoq

PAT - Muthoot PAT is mostly coming from NIM expansion but Manappuram has already taken that benefit

GNPA - Muthoot doubled QoQ to 4.56% vs. 1.1% for MFS

NPA: Muthhot 3.99% vs. 0.9% for MFS

Other segments - Due to higher costs/NPAs etc other service lines like home loans and MFIs have not been contributing to MFS but Muthoot is better placed.

Let’s not go by PAT numbers alone. MFS has to work on home loan while MFI has recovered completely. The biggest worry is structural stagnation in the gold loan segment across the industry.

Disc: Invested


(yudiagg) #412

I am tired of holding it for so long. No growth in AUMs over last 4 qtrs. Bottom line reducing every qtrs. Cannot live on only hope forever. Liquidated major part of holding today at some loss. Big opportunity loss since many others are going up every day on improved performance. Migrated to Rain Industries- excellent Q3 today.


(Kumar Saurabh) #413

I think, there are flaws in this reason (joined con call in between ,so, was not aware of this). Taking 1 lakh loan for 3 months and doing 33k payment (assuming 0% interest for simplicity) and doing 10k payment on 1 lakh loan for 10 months are very different consideing personal liquidity perspective. If some takes 1 lakh clears in 3 months and again takes 1 lakh back, this is more of rotating the money. Conservative lending is good but may be this is driving away customers to easier options
Disc: Invested and holding