Lincoln Pharma ... the next mid-cap pharma in the making ...?

Anyone understands what is up with their stock in trade and erratic topline qtr after qtr? Why for last 2 qtrs they posted 135-140 cr topline but extremely low profits? Why in this qtr, with 90 odd cr topline they posted 11 cr pat? Why stock in trade in last qtr was 90 cr? Lots of questions. They said they have closed their trading business. Then why such erratic numbers?

What is going up with that plant usfda approval?

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Their product basket is a seasonal business

Hi Rajesh, could you elaborate a bit on that? Their product basket being seasonalā€¦

http://www.hdfcsec.com/Research/ResearchDetails.aspx?report_id=3020728
This is my source of information posted by http://forum.valuepickr.com/u/Mridul on 2 Feb

Lincoln just received patent for their antimalarial drug. Here is the link: http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/1dba40a1-4416-47ef-a221-bb95328cf3e4.pdf

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Hereā€™s a video that didnā€™t really get publicized but worth watching. The MD talks of the GST impact and that growth will be back on track in the coming quarters:

http://www.btvi.in/m/videos/watch/25058/lincoln-pharma--profit-up-28--margin-stable (the video size might be large and the audio might buffer but that seems like a server issue)

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When is the next AGM due and when are the results expected, since they are not affected by FDA, I hope we can expect good results.

Results are looking very good. Profitability improved impressively while revues are maintained flat or 10% above.

https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/f6f3a375-f99e-4355-af51-1d2cbc5596be.pdf

on consolidated basis revenues down 33% but profit up 3x

what is the reason for this much distortion in the performance? have they discontinued any unprofitable product line?

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Results Announced:

Standalone results good but when we look at consolidated results , sales are down by 33% and profit is almost three times YOY. How should we see decrease in sales on consolidated basis. Rest all figures looks good in Standalone and Consolidated P&L

Highlights of Q1FY2019
Ā· Net Revenue is at Rs. 96.63 Crores as compared to Rs. 87.75 Crores in the corresponding period of
the previous year.
Ā· EBITDA growth 185% to Rs. 23.91 Crores as compared to Rs. 8.38 Crores in the corresponding
period of the previous year.
Ā· EBITDA Margins are at 24.74%, Margin growth on account of increasing in Sales as compared to
last year.
Ā· Profit after Tax up 246% to Rs. 15.60 Crores as compared to Rs. 4.50 Crores in the corresponding
period of the previous year.
Ā· PAT Margins are at 16.14%, a growth of 1101 bps compared to last year same period.
Ā· Earnings per share up 246% to Rs. 7.80 as compared to Rs. 2.25 in the corresponding period of the
previous year.

They are now focusing on high margin products and decreased trading revenue substantially.

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Lincoln has been put under ASM list for two months. Donā€™t know what to make of it? Seems like it is due to recent surge in volume but then the results were good so why to put it in ASM?

Does anyone know more about it?

Lower sales while improved PAT is because of discontinuation of contract manufacturing operations which was a low margins business vertical.


Good to see rise in R&D spends over the years.


Good improvement in return ratios.

image


Good formulations portfolio both domestic/International.


Rising export footprint, especially in Africa.

Disclaimer: Invested. No change in holding in last 90 days.

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Hi Mridul,

Thanks for sharing the important snippets from the presentation. I went trough last few years of annual report of the company and nosā€¦there are lots of negatives (like volatile nos in past, related party transactions, same products, promoter action etc) however some of the things seem to be improving and positives are there like - improvement in margins and balance sheet over last 3 years. The nos donā€™t look good at the face of it but if one breaks them down then it seems the company has consciously reduced the trading part of the business substantially which was low margin and an area of concern + R&D expenses have increased and there are hints over product development and expansion. Here is the breakup of nos for last 5 years:

image

Because of the reduction in trading business, the topline was de-growing but Q1FY19 has been a pretty strong quarter and if this can be maintained in terms of topline and margins, then the valuations are attractive. The concern is that in past the nos have been very un-predictable.

It seems the next generation has joined the business - we should try to see if they are involved and are the reasons for the change in business?

Regards,
Ayush
Disc: Invested

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Lincoln has published itā€™s annual report: https://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/AnnualReport/531633/5316330318.pdf

Hi All,

Sharing my notes from AGM 2018.

Lincoln%20Pharma%20AGM%202018%20Notes

Regards,
Yogansh Jeswani
Disclosure: Tracking
Please Note: These are my personal running notes of the AGM and can possibly have error in listening, writing or interpreting while preparing these, please do your own due-diligence.

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https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/earnings/lincoln-pharma-consolidated-september-2018-net-sales-at-rs-102-60-crore-up-14-44-y-o-y-3168791.html

sharp jump in receivables of 38%, rest everything good

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Q2 results are more or less in line with Q1 results with sustainable profit.

Major concern is huge increase in receivables. Canā€™t understand why should receivable increase as they discontinued the contract manufacturing.

On the liability side debt has been reduced by 19 Cr which is good sign indicating that increase in receivable are not funded by debt.

Disclosure:
Invested.

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I find it a bit odd that receivables shot up so much in 6 months especially considering that Trading volumes were down significantly in Q1 and Q2 FY19 and Especially considering unremarkable growth in the overall sales numbers of H1FY19. While I understand non-trading revenues are growing quite healthily, is it possible that the company has had to give unusually lenient credit terms to its new export markets to market its new and old products? Any thoughts?

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Yes receivables have increased a lot, I am also concerned about the same, dont know why there is a sharp increase in it. It is fine if they were lenient or if they have some strategy to push new products by providing loose credit in the beginning but at the same time management has to be prudent with their WC or else may face good amt of liquidity problems and screw the whole credit cycle. Lets make sure that if some one can contact the management then we will ask the reason for such increase in trade receivables.
Regards
Rushikesh
Disc- Invested

Quarter Result:
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/3c52688d-7fdb-409e-9103-4424ed53fcfe.pdf.