Guys,
Kitex seems a promising opportunity no doubt.
Valuations seem rich at the moment - good growth over FY15 can make valuations look reasonable.
However let me make the observations no one seems to be making - so that it doesn’t become a one-sided look at the business.
Business Quality
1). The industry structure seems favourable - Large Buyers have to come to Large Manufacturers like Kitex (and there are only a handful able to scale up or so is claimed)
2). There is huge customer concentration in KGL. Over 80% of business comes from top 3-4 customers - Gerber, Babies R Us, Carter and Mothercare?
3). Only one of the top 3 Customers - Carter is financially sound. Gerber was up for sale a year before and Babies R Us is a (profitable?) subsidiary of loss making Toys R Us (request Kiran to share details/links to the listed entities)
4). So there exists a risk to continued business. It can be argued that the deficit can be quickly filled by the next customer - but usually that may mean 3-4 quarters of lost opportunities before things stabilise
5). There is also geographic concentration risk with over 80% of business coming from the US.
6). Textiles (labour intensive) is a tough business no matter that they seem to be in a sweet spot today. They are doing business in a location that is tough for business.Scaling up will be difficult.
Management Quality
1). The scale and technolodgy edge Kitex has achieved is truly remarkable. Those who visited the factory vouch for the highest standards. Especially to Social and Environmental Compliance norms (Ayush’s blog has details of the clean Airconditioned environment for workers) - they have not been cutting corners here and seem to have been investing in these form the start - which is a big plus point today to large buyers.
That speaks of a visionary, progressive Management.
2, Management is given to making aggressive plans. If you look at the history of past 10-12 years, Management has repeatedly failed up to execute on announced plans. (request T Anil Kumar to supply the details). So all plans announced in Media of doubling capacity etc should be taken with a little pinch of salt.
3). There is that muddle about business allocation between KGL (the listed entity) and KCL the unlisted MD owned entity - leading to doubts over Corporate Governance. To be fair to Management - these kind of situations are pretty common in India - where the parent feels magnanimous to both the children. Those who visited AGM tell that the MD went to great lengths to assure investors that he is doing the right think for KGL. All the biggies - the big scale up oppotrtunties go to KGL; the starting orders small batches go to KCL - and this is how it will be - he will be preferential to KGL since it is the listed entity. Once KCL scales up to 400 Cr - he may look to merge it with KCL - he things he will get the right valuation then. There is that Management discretion you have to learn to live with - stay with the business for a couple of years before you can get comfortable on that count.
Transparency required
1). What is not that easily explained the inconsistency in details/break-ups of capacity between KGL & KCL provided to investors on one hand and Rating Agencies on the other. An ICRA Ratings report quotes the KCL capacity at90 million pieces per annum and KGL’s at 65 million pieces per annum. Investors at the AGM heard exactly the opposite.
http://www.icra.in/Files/Reports/Rationale/Kitex%20Childrenswear_r_26122013.pdf
2). Company intends to double capacities by FY15-16. There are some grand plans announced on using Robotics for expanded capacities that will lessen the dependence on Labour. Exactly how much is the Robotics spend - how much lesser Labour will be required - 30%, 50% ? what?
Even a 50% labour increase over 2 years is going to be very difficulty to achieve.
3). The company always talks about KCL+KGL combined capacities - 5.5 L pieces/day is not KGL capacity. At best that is 3.5 L/day balance with KCL or it might actually be the reverse case.
4). So any projections of 30%- 50% growthin FY15 or 100% by FY16 needs to be corroborated with exactly what is KGL capacity today and what are going to be the investments in KGL?
No one has an answer to that?
Risks
1). Labour/Scaling up
2). Ambitions of brands/wholesaale operations in US - This is a very tough business - which is completely a scale game - at US Cost structures. Won’t be easy for the company who has manufacturing experience - will have to re-invent itself?
Will request Vinod MS to create the Stock Story on Kitex - on as is basis, while we try to get more info/clarifications from Management