Their solution is not just in Digital customer onboarding space, but including customer analytics, billing and metering, digital communication, B2B analytics and Digital identify & customer analysing. Customer Analytics is a huge area these days and lucrative based on how innovative one’s solution is. I do not have in-depth expertise in this space to compare competing solutions and to rate Intense product Uniserve or Uniserve next.
In case, any of the VPer worked with them as a system integrator or used/laisoned as IT expert from the end user company end, we may get better insights. If the results start showing in coming quarters, we may get investor interest back here. Else, I do not think hearing such insider view may be bleak.
No .If any found in due course will put here.
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Thanks for the reply.Continue to wait which proved Long. Haven’t sold any from my holding.
Hi @ashwinidamani
While you will need to contact the co for most answers, I can answer #4. One of the most respectable investor in india, Satpal Khattar ( one of the founding investors in HDFC Bank owns intense for many years and his name is still visible in the Sept SHP
This article also mentions his interest in Intense.
Another well respected investor is Anil Sarin and his wife, Anita Sarin who continue to hold substantial equity in the company in his personal capacity. He is the CIO for Edelweiss
Hence the argument that there are no respectable shareholders is invalid
Having gone through all the recent messages in this and other threads initiated by me, my submission is as follows
- My understanding of this forum was that it was created to thrash out ideas, and not individual investors.
- Each and every investor has their own investing style which works for them. There is no right or wrong method.
- The discussion should be restricted to the merits and demerits of the company, and not to who owns it or not.
- I am sure the founders @Donald @ayushmit who created this forum didn’t want it to be a bulletin board to discuss individuals and their investing patterns. Orchestrated witch-hunts as seen on ITL , Meera , MRSS and Intense threads can be best avoided…as they steer the conversation away from the main subject- the company.
- Stocks rise and fall many times over a long period. 1-2 years are short periods for long tem investors. Each fall shouldn’t result in brickbats for the initiator.
- There are many great and clever people here. Many promoters also visit this forum and check what the common opinion on their co is. Instead of discussing individuals, if shortcomings on cos are discussed, it will also help the promoter to know where to improve so that sustainable wealth is created for all
- Personal remarks tend to poison the thread rather than add value to it. If the co and business is good, I as a investor will make tons of money, even if there are many negative comments against it. And vice versa also holds. Mr.Market is the harshest judge of all.
- Lets face it. In most cases . each thread is started by someone who owns the stock and wants to highlight it to the investing public at large. Readers can safely assume the initiator wants a higher value for his existing holdings. It is for the reader to do their own due diligence before buying.
I continue to own the co and am looking to increase at this rate.
MCap when posted : 87 cr
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The thread on which you have replied is actually asking some critical questions and is not directed at you.
Still awaiting answers on Point 1, 2 and 3
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At the same time , investors in this forum are grown up and they should also be aware on how to look at things from a operator angle.
Market is known to indulge in shares like Opto, Hanung and Pyramid Saimara.
Some softer aspects of investing are equally required to be shared.
Investors should know how to judge the appearance of a name of Broker in shareholding.
So there are no personal remarks (whatever was , has already been deleted by admin).
Still awaiting answers to Point 1, 2, 3 and 5.
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Agree. Lets keep it objective. Will help everyone including me.
Will try and get answers for 1,2,3,5 from publicly available information
Or will ask these in next concall
Cheers
I agree with @thestocklady The criticism should be of the stock idea and not of the person per se. End of the day, lets not forget that it is the individual investor who pulls the trigger and we should be gracious enough to not pass on the blame to the thread initiator. That’s very immature IMHO.
Your corporate governance scuttlebutt (which is brilliant work indeed) would have been much more widely accepted and circulated had you not made a single person (in this case @thestocklady) the target of all your posts. You may call him a below average stock picker, but anything beyond that is slipping into dangerous territory.
Lets maintain the objectivity and the vision with which the Forum was founded. Do ruthless analysis of the stock and not of individuals.
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This stock came to my attention due to this thread. I lost a good amount on this counter as I put about 15% of PF at one time at about 100 and there is notional loss of substantial sum. My views were expressed already in this thread. But having said that, I have tremendous respect for @thestocklady as his posts were good pointers for further learning. He did not held my hand to invest in this company nor coerce me. Everyone is responsible for their investments and so was I. Also everyone who value views expressed in valuepickr also in their decision making. So people like me without any stockpicking skills get benefited by ‘mediocre’ initiators of this thread. Also the fact is that most of the people here are mediocre, else their name would have been Rakesh J or Warren Buffet. They would not have needed to post here, instead others would have made blogs in their name or quoted their quotes liberally. Now among such ‘mediocre’ ones, there are better ‘mediocre’ ones like @Shrihari who pointed out newer aspects of investing by many and inventing money by pumping. Likewise many others views were expert ones. Other experts like @Leading_Nowhere were good in pointing out risks. I hope more superior investors would thrash/unskin or uncover good and bad more. So why this rant ? Just to thank @thestocklady for this wonderful thread and other threads initiated by you and for disclosure on your holdings. Please refrain from attacking persons, but attack the ideas. Please continue to bring out companies to public attention, if you believe they are worth investing. Let time prove it., if they were good or bad. Or if you did any service to community or not also time would tell. But that is true for any good work. Some times, it can boomerang. Also there are only very few 100% selfless individuals…
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Good to see the candid and animated discussion took place yesterday on this thread. Enough is said on the right way to take a discussion forward which I feel will undoubtedly contribute to the quality here. it is human to have some pain when we see erosion- albeit a passing phase as has always been - but to pain on our decision will not help any. I continue to hold Intense since I feel if the vision of the promoter Mr Sastry realises I expect a huge upside . On innumerable occasions earlier my huntches proved right .Patience paid and I hope this time too. Continued interest of Mr Satpal Khattar has added to my conviction as these guys by virtue of their large holdings are expected to have a wider view of the scene . Thanks once again to all participants for yesterday’s additions.
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I have gone through the discussion on whether respectable shareholders are present in this stock or not. My opinion here is that respectable/popular shareholders’ presence or absence in a stock, should not be a key criterion for buying/holding or selling a stock. It does not necessarily speak about the quality of the stock either. Here are my arguments to substantiate my stance taking Intense Tech. stock as an example:
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Take a look at Mr. Satpal Khattar’s holdings as per the Economic Times article that @thestocklady posted. The article was written on June 6th, 2017. His holdings were worth 664 crores of which his holding in Intense Tech was worth 4 crores, a small fraction of his overall portfolio. Further, Intense Tech stock price was 135 on that day and it is much lower today. It is safe to assume that his holding in this stock is a negligible fraction of his overall portfolio as of today. Can we assume that retailers also have a negligible portion of their overall holdings in Intense Tech.? I don’t think so. If our buy/hold/sell decision is contingent on respectable shareholders’ holdings, then we must do exactly as they do and mimic their portfolio management decisions, or we should not be bringing it up as a key argument for investing in a stock. Let me elaborate this further.
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Let’s make an assumption that you bought this stock last year at a 3-digit price (this is when most retailers bought the stock), thinking to yourself: “Respectable investors are here, so I should be safe”. Did it work out well for you? You have lost 60%-83% of your investment. Mr. Khattar and The Sarins are not at a notional loss because they purchased shares at a low double-digit price as per shareholding patterns. Again, this means we should be following them completely, or we do not bring up this point as an argument to buy/hold the stock. (On a separate note, you might argue that this is a notional loss, but the counterargument here is that this loss comes at an opportunity cost. You could have invested elsewhere. Further, you have lost time and effort tracking a poor-quality stock)
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Look at Mr. Khattar and The Sarins investment over time. Mr. Khattar had 4.98 lakh shares as of Dec 2016 and 3.92 lakh as of March 2017. He must have purchased shares at around 25 and perhaps sold them at around 200. Let’s look at this mathematically: He had X shares, sold 0.2 X at 8 times return. He has already made 60% profit on his overall investment, and this is ignoring his current holding!! Anil and Anita Sarin had ~ 10.8 lakh shares and their holding is now down to ~7.95 lakh shares. They are perhaps holding “free shares” as of today, or in other words, they must have recovered their initial investments. Are retailers holding “free shares” as these investors? I am sure many retailers will be happy to get their capital back, without any appreciation. What is the point then of saying that we are here in this stock because respectable investors are? We should be timing our entries and exits like they do.
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Even the smartest investors land up with sub-par investments. It is not that these investors have not done their scuttlebutt appropriately or they are using incorrect analytical techniques; this is the case, because we all face a drawback, especially in our stock market, that I’d like to call “information asymmetry”. One’s analysis is only as good as the underlying data. If data is inaccurate or incomplete, the analysis, despite being spot-on, will lead to sub-optimal decisions. If a company withholds important information that is required for analysis, and/or provides incorrect information, the analysis will lead to an incorrect conclusion. The smart investors land up with less duds though and they have a well-diversified portfolio to combat this drawback. Unless you mimic their portfolio distribution and entry/exit points completely, you might actually lose money trying to follow them.
Now let’s turn things around.
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These immensely successful investors are at a dis-advantage. Take the case of RJ. He will find it difficult to sell a large portion of his holdings, because it is worth a lot and not many can mobilize funds to buy them quickly. He has followers and they might pare their holdings too. If he sells a stock, concerns on the company might arise. It is not easy for successful investors with a large number of followers to sell shares. That is not true for retailers though. We can buy and sell as we please, and that is an advantage and finally, my most important point is:
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I’d like us to go back in time and question whether we could have bought Intense Tech shares at a low double-digit price and bail-out completely between 200-250 between Jan-March 2017. If we had done that, we would have proven ourselves to be the smartest investors among the entire lot, is it not? Now, are such scenarios even possible, you may ask? I think it is very much possible. It takes hard work to acquire the necessary skills (technical and fundamental) and train yourself to synthesize data and “problem-solve”, and be disciplined (which includes, having patience to get a good entry point, judgment to bail out on time and courage to get in when the market corrects severely). Most importantly, as a starting point, you need to have faith in yourself; And I cannot see as to how you can have faith in yourself, if you do not take responsibility for your own investments.
My 2 cents.
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That’s not 2 cents …it’s a full dollar!!
My naming khattar and sarin was only in response to the statement that no good investor owns intense.
I agree with u…their holding/selling and their cost price is immaterial.
Again requesting…pls let’s talk about business and not ownership…which is transient in nature.
Any one who has attended conferences call can clarify the following issues.
- Whether incomtax depth order is renewed?
- As per Sept 18 balance sheet work in progress is zero. Whereas in March 18 balance sheet it is 151.65 Lacs. However there is no corresponding increase of property plant & equipment figure of Sept 18 figures. Where this amount is gone?
- They says that order book is Healthy. Then can they declare what will be the annuity revenue and license revenue from pending order book?
- There is no consistency in conference call opening remark. Can not they discuss in opening remark of what was discussed in previous conference call and what is now latest status of previous discussion? Then it will provide more clarity.
As an example they have told that they are following with system integrators for deploying there platform in there lab. But afterwords there is no update about it.
In view of above it seems that they are discussing different matters in conference calls with no relevance with each other and as a result all are confused for real state of affairs of company and its progress.In one of the conference call they have said that they are pursuing 30 million Dollers deal and success rate is 40 percent as I remember but there after no updates.
I have emailed company for above matter 10 days back and reply is still awaited.
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In a previous con call they have also said the they are chasing big opportunities in Newzeland and Austrelia. What happened to it? No updates.
Good result by Intense
Revenue 15.04 vs 9.75
Net Profit 2.95 vs (-1.17)
EPS 1.32 vs (-0.53)
OPM % 30.41
Hope this continues in coming quarters. we can expect Q4 to do much better. I think, this is the time to accumulate more.
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Well the state of Satpal Khattar’s other picks are no better. Look at Krishan Infra and not just from the stock price angle (which of course is disastrous) but also look at what has happened to PL and what is the state of Balance Sheet .
The trade receivables figure speak whatever has to be spoken
Dear @Shrihari how do you view Q3 results and management commentary ? Mostly it looks to be that sales & marketing weakness getting blamed without much change over the quarters for lack of strong growth overseas .
@james_kerala, My apologies for the delayed response. Here are my thoughts on Q3 performance. Like always, I want to hear back from you and other shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis:
- Q3 FY 19 revenues total around 15 crores, while Q3 FY 18 revenues were around 9.5 crores. Topline improvement and some cost-cutting related initiatives have resulted in EPS increasing to 1.3 from -0.53. Results look very good.
- The increase in other expenses is due to some subsidiary costs being included in standalone, which was not the case in Q3 FY 18. The EPS would have been higher otherwise.
- The trailing standalone EPS is now 2.9+1.86-(-1.06) = 5.82
- Subsidiaries will breakeven as per the company. Further, there is seasonality in AMC revenues and most revenues show up in the last quarter of a fiscal year. Q4 FY 19 will be a relatively good quarter.
a. This results in consolidated FY 19 EPS being somewhere between 5.5-6
b. Consolidated FY 18 EPS was -0.2, so the improvement in EPS is extra-ordinary.
- At a P/E of 10, stock price should touch 55-60 zones sometime before or after Q4 FY 19 results.
Technical Analysis:
The stock has corrected from a high of 248 to a low of 33. In such a steep correction over a long period of time, the reversal if any, will seldom be a V shaped recovery. The base formation will be a prolonged affair. In Elliott wave parlance, what usually happens is that sub wave 3 and 5 within wave 5 belonging to the downward moving wave C, as well as the first initial motive wave 1 all contribute to a U-shaped base-building pattern. I, incorrectly, predicted the base formation at 49, in Part 8 of my analysis posted above. However, as per my analysis now, the base has been built despite the 5% correction seen today. I expect the next upward wave to take the stock to 50-60 zones and this is a high probability scenario according to me and should happen within the next 3 months.
However, concerns remain, and I have listed them out.
Concerns
- The key question is: What has led to the increase in topline in Q3 FY 19 vis-à-vis, that of Q3 FY 18? My guess is that this is because of BSNL (as cost structure has not changed) and if yes, this leads to the following worries: a) Will BSNL pay the company? b) Excluding BSNL and cost-reductions, there has been no change as such; which means, this will be the third year running where topline has not improved and this is despite benign market conditions (where every company has a budget allocated to digital transformation). The company’s product modules are core to a digital transformation process, and it is surprising that topline growth overseas is not improving rapidly despite a Gartner recognized product.
- It will be 3 years in June this year, since BSNL contract was announced and even today, we do not know what the BSNL contract totals to annually with certainty, and neither has the company received payments for an entire year. The contract was supposed to entail annual payments of 25-30 crores, but this has now reduced to 12-14 crores (with certainty) plus advertising revenue, which is difficult to estimate, and I am not sure what value is generated either. (I have been a BSNL customer for a decade now and not once did I want to see an ad on my bill), BSNL contract continues to be a big question mark.
- Let’s look at valuations: According to text books, a stock is given premium valuations when the following conditions are met:
a. Good promoter quality (honest and talented)
b. EPS growth is high coupled with low debt
c. The company’s products are well-entrenched in the market resulting in a moat.
Practically speaking, this translates to the following: Stocks with strong hands (large number of reputed funds, for instance) leads to a limited free float; in such cases, high valuations can be maintained even during market drawdowns.
You can look at Jubilant Foods as an example. Less than 4% of shares are owned by retailers. Rest are held by mutual funds, FPI’s and promoters. A TTM P/E of 50-60 can be maintained with ease.
The complete opposite of Jubilant Foods is Intense Tech. when it comes to shareholding structure. Most shares are owned by retailers (rest by corporate bodies/operators). Most, if not all retailers, have lost money in this stock and there will be a desire to recover the initial capital outlay at every step of the way. In other words, as stock price increases, shareholders might keep bailing out resulting in a continuous supply of shares and thereby reduced valuations.
- In the past there have been serious corporate governance mishaps that have occurred in this stock. I will not get into them as they have been described in detail in my analysis divided into Parts 1-8 in this thread above. Valuations might be low because of these issues. Whether these will recur in the future, or we will see a new chapter in this stock, is anyone’s guess.
Disclosure: Continue to hold shares at a heavy loss. This investment continues to be a daily reminder for me to hone my stock-analysis skills and what not to do. No regrets, as my learnings w.r.t. stock markets have been tremendous, all thanks to my investment in Intense Tech. 
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Just opened this thread and pleasantly surprised to see the removal of personal attacks - probably by the administrator . Off late I avoided posting here. I now try to add my little to what you have already put here in good detail. I see a consistency in improving performance by the company for past three years .Consolidated net loss is reduced from minus Rs 9.86 Crores for FY2016 , to minus Rs4.82 Crores for FY 2017, to minus Rs0.47 Crores for FY2018. For the 9 months ended December 2018 the company has decisively posted a stand-alone net profit of Rs 6.59 Crores .It was also specified by the management in the concall that the foreign subsidiaries are showing surplus which in other words means the consolidated net profits for the 9 months period would be higher than the standalone ones.
Common to the other points in the concall I feel the following are noteworthy .
- Annuity revenues constitute about 80-90 percent.So I expect consistency in profits hereforth avoiding any surprises.
2.EBIDTA margins are improved from 25 percent to 31 percent. The CEO expects this to improve.I will be happy to see it is at least maintained at same level of 30-31 percent which by itself will be good by any means .
3.As regards the BSNL contract the company is in customer on boarding which is a mission critical part of their activity .So I feel the chances of BSNL defaulting on payments is less likely.
4.While telecom sector which constitutes a main market for Intense is under pressures of consolidation , this works advantageous to Intense whose products will help the telecoms to optimise their operations.
5.The company is not in a hurry to induct a strategic partner because they are now more confident of improving performance and consequently the value in near term .
The tone and tenor of the management has given me some confidence on the future of the company despite I am nursing my bruises in this counter.Added some quantities during last four months and keeping my fingers crossed .
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Sorry for the typos here and there.Age is not helping to type better.
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