Indiabulls Housing - A compounder from here?


(atul1082) #102

@Rudresh I tried to understand your post.could u Pl clarify if management purchased or sold the shares and if we could get the price too as I am unable to make it out.


(ajaychauhan) #103

I think promoters sold the share in open market


(atul1082) #104

That’s a negative sign


(Susindar) #106

The promoter group SG Advisors sold 2% stake in open market. Promoter shareholding reduced to 20% after the sale.


(Mahendra243) #107

Any headwinds in near future for HFC’s…we are seeing a drawdown for nearly 18% from peak


(Chirag) #108

I was not able to find the absolute provision numbers for the first quarter. Can someone please update with that detail? Thank you.


(Manojlion) #109

Hi All,

As we would have noticed in the last week,can the fall be attributed to general market sentiment in NBFC segment due to defaulting of ILFS or could there be any specific reason for fall of IBHF?


(Yogesh Sane) #110

Some data about HFCs with a 5 year perspective. Sometimes taking a long term perspective helps when recent price movement becomes inexplicable.

Companies Price EPS BVPS PB
Sep-13 Sep-18 CAGR Sep-13 Sep-18 CAGR Sep-13 Sep-18 CAGR Sep-13 Sep-18
Indiabulls Hous. 183 854 36% 36 89 20% 154 315 15% 1.2 2.7
LIC Housing Fin. 188 417 17% 23 41 12% 129 253 14% 1.5 1.6
Dewan Hsg. Fin. 52 275 40% 21 43 15% 126 273 17% 0.4 1.0
GRUH Finance 53 304 42% 2 6 20% 7 19 23% 7.8 16.1
Can Fin Homes 23 238 59% 6 23 31% 38 101 21% 0.6 2.4
H D F C 764 1,756 18% 47 76 10% 159 513 26% 4.8 3.4
Nifty 50 6,299 10,930 12%

Indiabulls Housing has reported second highest EPS growth rate (after Canfin). Its BVPS growth rate is medium mainly because it distributes 50% of profits as dividends. Price performance is much better than HDFC and LIC which are somewhat closer to Indiabulls housing in terms of sizing. Smaller companies have done much better mainly because of expanding P/B ratios.
DHFL, inspite of the steep fall, has returned 40% CAGR in last 5 years, almost as much as Gruh but trades at lowest P/B ratio.


(Alok Bhola) #111

Looked at this Company today after a long time. One of the things I am always curious about is who all own a Company and how has the ownership pattern changed over the years. Following are some interesting aspects about IHFL ownership:

  1. Promoters comprise 7 Pvt Ltd Companies (why so many ?) and no individuals (ignoring the negligible holding of Sameer Gehlaut). So we don’t really know who the ultimate promoter owners of this Company are.

  2. The Promoters have been steadily selling over the past 1.5 yrs and have sold nearly 10% of their already low 24% holding.

  3. Rajiv Rattan, who used of hold about 3.5% stake (public category) till about 2 years back, has now sold most (if not all) of it.

The financial figures, of course, look excellent. They have been maintaining RoNW of between 25% to 30%+ almost since the beginning, a feat better than most others and comparable to the likes of Gruh (valued much higher). Most other financial parameters are also comparable to the best (and much higher valued) Companies.

Then why is it that people who are supposed to have insider information are selling (rather than buying) this excellent Company, available at such attractive valuations.

I cannot say about others, but I am unlikely to buy this stock unless I get a convincing answer to the above question.


(MD Razi G Haider) #112

@Yogesh_s,You are amazing,magician of data ,you have shown Gruh and DHFL provide same return by taking reference point from 2013… Now compute this from 2016 demon time or 2010 or various other frames the actual truth will come .Through above data statistics you are portraying something which may be factually correct but who will invest in other tines may see steep value erosion of his pf in near future…


#113

Can you put up a similar chart for 2016 or 2010 onwards so that things are clear?


(EL) #114

Indiabulls is raising new debentures with an interest of 10.25 as per this filing https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/dffc9b2f-33f5-4228-b3fd-c2a1f6200cf8.pdf

How do they plan on making profit from it with a mortgage rate of around sub 7pc or are they expecting interest rates to rise to over 10.25pc

I would be very appreciative if someone could explain this to me.


(Manojlion) #115

The issue size is only 25 crores, which is very less for us to worry…Seniors please correct me if am wrong


(kauban) #116

This is being issued by Indiabulls Real Estate not Housing Finance! Not relevant to this thread!


(EL) #117

Sorry I wrote an earlier message, but edited. you are right however margins are slim even on the ones issued a few days earlier like the one attached below:
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/CorpAttachment//2018/8/bfccb6a6-2298-4851-a120-1365c4047e02.pdf

I think they are expecting interest rates to rise another 1-2pc
The last one was taken at 8.9pc and they are lending at 8.95 % to 10.80%


(abhishkjain2626) #118

A general question about the company: whats the reason behind indiabulls’ high ROE? What do they do that other HFCs cannot?
Also, they payout nearly half profit as dividend. So their SSGR maintaining same D/E ratio must not be more than 14-15%. How are they growing at 28-30% ?


(Mridul) #119

This is due to securitisation.


(Julian) #120

I was not able to get their annual report. Anybody read it?


(EL) #121

Please read and tell us what you find

image https://www.indiabullshomeloans.com/uploads/downloads/indiabulls-housing-finance-limited-annual-report-2018-0870762001535113017.pdf


(Manojlion) #122

This was the reason for today’s fall


However am not sure,if the exposure to SuperTech Builders is more than 500 crores
Is there a way to cross verify(I could not find anything in annual report)