Right now it seems that the poor have been the hardest hit by the demonetisation (or currency replacement if you will). The road side vendors, daily wage labourers, micro entrepreneurs etc. It seems that right now there is more less-cash than cash-less. However, when it comes to money, we underestimate the ability of human beings to evolve and adapt. What do you think people will adopt more easily to - less cash or cash less? No matter how tech-handicapped, people will find a way to adjust and cope. More so now because we have online payment wallets, UPI, NEFT, RTGS etc. I never had to teach my mother and grand mother to use Whatsapp, but they do use it. More often than myself. You know why? Because the impression of it being free (as far as SMS/STD calls are concerned).
- Word on the street says that retailers and small shops are queuing up to get POS machines installed at their shops.
- People are getting more comfortable paying via PayTM.
There no doubt is greater uncertainty as to how this will pan out in the short term. If I were in a position where I handle other people's money (i.e. a fund manager), I would play it safe. Thats what has happened. Wish I had the cash to buy in this correction.
FYI - Some stats:
- About 5.5 lakh crore worth of deposits in the demonetised 500/1000 rupee notes have been received so far, across all banks.
- About 1.1 lakh crore has been withdrawn by people via ATMs banks
- With more ATMs being recalibrated and the supply of 500 & 2000 rupee notes set to increase, this cash crunch will end soon. Probably by 1st week of December.
And as predicted earlier - interest rates set to fall. All interest rates will fall very soon: Arundhati Bhattacharya, SBI