Capital First will not continue to be seperately traded post merger.
considering the current trading price of capital first (i.e 845), the swap ratio translates to abt. INR 61 per share of IDFC Bank ( i.e. 10% discount to current price of 67). Am I missing something or does the deal indicate lower valuation for IDFC Bank than what the market price suggests.
Just assume it this way: The bank acquired CapF at Rs.938 per share, as per the closing prices of both on Friday.
IDFC Bank will issue 137 Cr shares to acquire Capital First. Assuming pooling of interest method, IDFC bank will have a book value of approximately 16,980 Cr against a market cap of approximately 30,000 Cr (at CMP of 63). This will give it a P/B value of 1.8 compared to current P/B of 1.5.
Analysts are hoping for a re-rating IDFC Bank based on Vaidyanathan’s track record of building a retail franchise and merger synergies. This is not an easy task given IDFC Bank’s history, size and nature of its loan portfolio.
Assuming that in 5 years IDFC Bank sells at 3 times book value and approximately 8% growth in book value per year over the next 5 years, book value of IDFC Bank works out to be 25k Cr market cap of IDFC Bank in FY 2023 works out to be 75k Cr. Compared to post merger market of 30k Cr, this will be a CAGR of 20%. Not a bad deal but execution risk is high and a large part of this CAGR is from re-rating which may not happen especially if the book value grows only 8%. A more realistic P/B value could be 2.5 and CAGR works out to be 16%.
IDFC Bank’s Rajiv Lall & Capital First’s V Vaidyanathan.
Just come across a new concept of micro ATM at Batala near Rly Station which can give an edge to bank for disproportionate growth