Your balanced reply above on Small/mid cap stocks being out of favor at present,and taking a sharp knocking, is very much valid in this range bound market. The big elephant in the room is,of course, the looming general elections, and while general elections may be a short-lived phenomenon,for stock markets, yet their long shadow will continue to overshadow other events,until the results are announced. An interesting interview on CNBC 18,with Ruchir Sharma, the well-known author, about his forthcoming book “Democracy on the Road”, yielded some penetrating insights about the voter keeping his opinions to himself,and about the swing votes likely to be a decisive factor. This factor about “swing votes” likely to influence the general election, squarely fitted in with the discussion about "Clusters’ and the “Pareto Principle”, with 20% of a population influencing 80% of the results,whether about the concentration of billionaires in a population,or the Nifty 50 chart exhibiting a similar trend,over a period of time.
Hence,in this poll-season, the markets will swing from one day to the other,without any definite direction,as the multiple poll-surveys start popping up. We shall have to wait for the background noise to subside.Because speaking for myself, I have found it almost impossible to blank out this background chatter, since most of the time, I am caught up in the excitement of the event.
And @HIMSHAH, there was an interesting interview with the Big Bull Rakesh Jhunjunwallah,on ET Now, 2 days ago,and it was eye-opening,because though he is self-confessed Bull, yet he was humble enough to acknowledge that he,along with others,had fallen into the trap of extrapolating 2-3 years stellar returns from small-cap stocks, mainly on growth curves,into the next 5-10 years,without taking into account other factors like the quality of corporate governance,and moderating expectations.
And finally, we may be entering into an era of slower growth,with trade wars and isolationist trade barriers coming up,in USA,European countries.India may continue to buck the trend,but a cautious stance may be in order.
@hitesh2710 Bhai ur views on CCL products India Ltd ? Looks good on financial parameters and capex is undergoing to increase capacity. And the best is this hasn’t fallen much in recent carnage of small cap.
@hitesh2710 , you were holding M&M if I remember correctly. Any thoughts? It has corrected a lot beyond what performance would warrant. Anything which investors may be missing.
@hitesh2710 please share your current portfolio and major churns, if any, you made in portfolio…
Anything you bought in this carnage??
How ur portfolio performed in 2018, because many have seen 30% to 60% erosion in portfolio from highs of 2017…
I would like your views on the following scrips if any.
Abbott India - Horizon of 5 years plus as a compounder?
ITC - As a long term compounder
APL Apollo Tubes - A play on capex revival. Good management and a brand in the making it seems like.
CCL Products - A moat can be seen. After recent correction, valuations look alright. Capex coming in as well.
AIA Engineering - Entry into mining. High volume growth guidance by mgmt. FMIG sort of a non-cyclical in a cyclical space?
Thank you for your time!
I agree about the observations put up by you. Things are not as cheap as they were in 2013. Back then it was a plethora of no brainer opportunities. Currently things are not as easy as it was back then.
Coming to companies with good ROE available cheap, I think the thing to do would be to figure out which companies are going to improve their ROEs as they keep growing and thats where serious money can be made. All those companies with consistent good ROEs and decent growth would obviously remain expensive and at best be compounders.
I dont strictly adhere to the PE valuation while looking at companies. I have been looking at some companies like Shoppers Stop and United Spirits. In both the cases there have been changes in financials which the management have been harping about since a long time in their concalls. Now the results are just about coming through but there are some temporary clouds on the horizon. I havent yet bought these companies but in both cases improving margins with even a modest growth rate can be an interesting thing to watch out for. I remember Dhwanil had a theory about something similar in Jubilant Foodworks and it played out quite well. I am on the lookout for something similar playing out here. But as said before its only in watchlist.
CCL is discussed in details in the respective thread. It has been relatively resilient in this carnage in the small and midcap space.
Business wise the management looks like doing all the right things but I dont see them growing faser than 15 % or at most 20%.
I havent had M&M in my portfolio. It has had a big correction of late but I dont follow it too closely.
Abbott and ITC can be long term compounders. But things like HDFC Bank could be a better choice especially in case of price correction affecting these large caps.
APL Apollo is a company I have followed since few months but results have been disappointing so far. There have been transient reasons for the same and once these near term concerns pass away it looks like an interesting company atleast based on past track record.
CCL discussed before.
AIA is a very niche company dominant in its sector of operations. And it could be one of the best plays in the FMIG space.
What is your opinion of Jenburkt pharma?
As a medico,i think it has good branded generic products.
Last 3 years growth is also good.
But i can not understand why it has very low asset.They have not expanded since very long tine.
With fixed asset of just 11 cr,it has profit of18 cr.
Am i missing any thing ?
Jenburkt growth has been tepid. Its hardly grown consistently above 15-20% cagr. What has happened in last 3 years is margins have improved consistently since March 2016 and hence profits have grown at a higher rate than sales. Plus there was some excitement in the small and midcap space prior to Jan 2018 and probably price overshot into the frothy range.
Now it seems its back to its deserved valuations. If the company can manage to show strong growth atleast 20% cagr or more in topline with commensurate profit growth then further re rating can be seen.
Asset base could be low probably because a large part of manufacturing is outsourced. (dont know the details)
Products of the company are good but in the domestic prescription market its a very fragmented and tough market. For a company to grow fast it would take a lot of smarts on the part of the management. I dont track valuations too closely so not much precise idea on that front.
What is your view on potential of ICICI Bank after Chanda Kochar removed?
@hitesh2710 sir, can you please give your views on Bosch from a five year perspective?
@Hitesh2710, sir What is your view on Insurance space specially like HDFC Life, SBI Life and ICICI Pru Life in light of greater share of Protection business and completely different distribution channel like bank, increasing Digital sales ,direct sale than agent dependent LIC.
Also your view on General Insurance space specially on ICICI Lombard , tailwind on retail health insurance and lumpy 3 year & 5 year upfront premium collection for 3 Year and 5 year mandatory Motor insurance package.
I would like your view on Reliance Nippon.
At this price a 4% dividend yield, huge opportunity size, great business model, dividends alone will increase a profits and growth increase.
Even if we dont see any re-rating, dividends alone due to the business model and growth prospects will be great. Nippon will keep a check on governance and make sure that the ICDs dont go overboard and compromise the company. Over time Nippon can buy out ADAG. Even if they dont and perception does not change, dividends and opportunity size can drive returns to a large extent.
Do let us know your views!
I dont know too much about Reliance Nippon. But NIppon keeping a check on ADAG group and then try and buy out ADAG group – this kind of thesis seems too far fetched to me. Just to consider an example, Tata Docomo suffered inspite of Tatas being at one end and Docomo at the other end.
Dividends, opportunity size etc dont mean a thing if promoter integrity is believed by markets to be questionable.
I would rather go with a similar business from the HDFC stable (if at all) if I want to ride the space.
Large opportunity size means something only if I remain invested for a long time and that can only happen if I have the comfort of a decent management at the helm.
Of late there has been a lot of recommendations on ICICI bank based on cheap valuations wrt HDFC Bank. Even axis is being talked about in the same vein.
With the exit of Chanda Kochar it seems a big load is lifted off the company. Atleast thats what a lot of brokerages and advisory services feel.
I personally think if I have to invest in a private bank I would still go for HDFC Bank maybe with staggered buying. As of now I am not invested in any banks. I have kept looking at HDFC Bank and dcb bank.
I have yet to educate myself on the insurance sector. As of now I feel its too complex for me so not trying. But if we think of a lot of wealth created for Buffett, GEICO was one of the big successes for him. So for someone who understands the sector and how to value the companies therein, it could be an interesting sector.
@mahesh1980 I dont track Bosch too closely so not much idea about its 5 years prospects.
Was checking out sundaram clayton as it holds stake in tvs motors , however whats the reason that its pe is 118 ? Dmart is overvalued but still has growth expectations which i couldnt find in Sundaram Clayton . Please let me know if i am missing something here . And the price too is showing a continuous fall . Even roce is not that great . Many thanks
May be the site you were seeing has calculated P/E based on standalone earnings. It is 14.36 based on consolidated earnings.