Hitesh portfolio


(rkothuri) #3312

Hi Hitesh, I have below 3 companies in watchlist. I have to rate them by some metrics in order to choose one of them for investment. Hexaware, Shaily engineering plastic and Garware technical fibers are the 3 companies. Thought they are not in same domain, I would like to understand from you what kind of metrics you would be choosing to compare them. Thanks in advance.


(Hitesh Patel) #3313

@rkothuri

I dont have much idea about hexaware or garware technical fibers.

I had been to shaily engg factory around 2 years back and was impressed with their outfit. They manufacture top notch quality products for the likes of Ikea and others. They are in the process of expansion according to recent concall and have an ambitious growth target going ahead. For further details you can go through the concall details and annual report. Its one company where I feel runway for growth is quite long.


( s das) #3314

Hi missed your post but except the last 2 I strongly feel it’s a buy And forget portfolio construction for next 5 years and your portfolio will more than double without calculating the dividend. Ideal way will be to distribute equal amount in all those stocks. Hope you had done it. :+1:
Hdfc amc and hdfc life are very exciting but not tested ones. I prefer gruh over them.


(MHS) #3315

Hitesh ji

Any views on INTELLECT DESIGN, it seems at inflection point along with tailwinds like rupee depreciation. I remember Ajit Jain saying couple of years back, once company reaches 200mn USD revenue per annum( around 50mnUSD per Querter) it will be in Auto run and no looking back. They achieved this in Q2FY19, 50+ MN USD and most of the increase in revenue is going to the bottom line now. They seems to be entering the big league in this business winning big deals with long term contracts. Stock also hitting 52 week high in weak market any technical thing to particularly look into here.


(Hitesh Patel) #3316

@MHS

I dont track Intellect too closely. I track Nucleus and it seems after a long time the company seems to be posting some growth. They recently did buyback too. And in last concall some investors were after the management for a repeat buyback too. If it can continue its growth numbers it can be very interesting looking at cash on books and the valuations on price to sales basis. No holding in nucleus as yet.


(Ankur Lakhia) #3317

Hitesh bhai,

One query on technicals. If Nifty turns downward from this level of 10950, can we consider H&S pattern being formed on Nifty as complete or is it necessary for Nifty to reach previous shoulder of about 11100 or so for completeness of H&S pattern?


(Hitesh Patel) #3318

@Ankur_Lakhia , For a head and shoulders pattern to play out, its not necessary for the two shoulders to be of same magnitude. The right shoulder or even the left one may be smaller than its counterpart.

Attached chart shows the pattern. If and when the pattern plays out it points out to targets in range of 8500-8600 where the retracement of entire rise is placed.

The current rally has taken a lot of people and even technical analysts by surprise. People have changed their views from a possible meltdown to a possible new high. Even the small and midcaps have started showing some resilience of late. How this whole structure unfolds needs to be seen.

Personally I remain cautious considering the political scenario. The silver lining has been the drastic fall in crude prices which has brought cheer to a lot of sectors of the markets.


Nifty PE crosses 24|A statistically informed entry-exit model!
#3319

This sounds quite ominous and fearful. It’s a flat 20 to 25% drawdown from current level. If this H&S pattern plays out, it would result in average portfolios drop in excess of 30-50%.

My view if Monday will be extremely critical. Any significant drop will result in acceleration of fall. Caution is better than bravery, is what I can understand.

Disc. I have negligible skills in technicals. Just sharing my thoughts.


(Zero Point Someone) #3320

Dear Sir,
What is more important ROE or ROCE ?? If all parameters are same what would you choose Company with higher ROE or with higher ROCE ??

Secondly what would happen in ideal scenario of company having very high ROCE (98%) but very slow growth rate 5%


(Ankur Lakhia) #3322

Hitesh bhai,

Thank you for your response. I have one follow-up query. In your reply, you mentioned Nifty retracing of 61.8% of rise in line with Fibonacci sequence. My question is whether it is possible to retrace 100% of rise? Past two bear markets in 2000 & 2008 ended with Nifty P/B around 2.0 - 2.1 range. If we apply same criteria today then target comes around 6700-7000 on Nifty which represents 100% of retracement. That is the reason for asking this question. Is 100% retracement possible from technical point of view? This is not to predict any market level but for the purpose of better understanding of technicals with real time picture of what is happening in market.


(Praveen Singh) #3324

IMO, ROCE is more important. it will tell you how good business is.
for example, ROCE is 8% for fixed deposit. I think, for ROE we also need to think of dept on balance sheet.


(Hitesh Patel) #3326

@karunbirsingh,

The levers to boost up ROE are net margin, asset turnover and leverage. So sometimes companies with very high leverage can show high ROE which might induce false conclusions. ROCE on the other hand removes the distortions caused by high debt.

Just for the record ROE is net income divided by shareholders equity. ROCE is calculated by getting the ratio of EBIT to the capital employed. Capital employed refers to total assets of the company minus all current liabilities.

Essentially speaking if one is looking at a company generating high ROE one has to look at it a bit deeper into the levers boosting ROE and if leverage is the prominent factor one has to be careful.

If I have to prefer only one parameter I would prefer ROCE. And a step higher would be to find out return on incremental invested capital.

Companies with very high ROE/ROCE with little growth usually remain in a range for long period of time. Ideal scenario to find winner is is to look at companies growing with increasing return ratios. (usually due to higher asset turns in companies with low margins (titan is a classic example) or with improving margins. (ajanta pharma is a classic example from 2011 to 2016))


(Hitesh Patel) #3327

@Ankur_Lakhia

While predicting using technical analysis the tagline to use is nothing is impossible. So 100% retracement is also possible. And usually for severe corrections, 61.8% ratios is the ratio to lookout for, sometimes corrections finish much before these levels often at 50% retracement levels.

What I tried to correlate in the chart I put up was that the potential target provided by a potentially successful head and shoulders pattern would be 8500-8600 which is in close vicinity of the 61.8% ratio of the entire rally.

I have no idea whether the head and shoulders pattern would play out or not. The index may remain rangebound and frustrate everyone or else take a dive and play out the path described by the head and shoulders pattern.

Technical analysis is often the art of connecting the dots using different methods and parameters used in technical analysis. I think the best method is to try to use both technical and fundamental analysis if possible.

Technical analysis is often very helpful in finding out sectoral rallies as most of the companies in sector would have similar structure or atleast similar trend.


(thecroc) #3328

Hi @hitesh2710 ,
I have a related question to ROE- the problem that I face. How much discount the PE multiple should have , Or is expected to have for a company that has ROE of 15 vs a company that has ROE of 30?


(Hitesh Patel) #3332

@thecroc

PE is not arrived at only considering ROE. The P part of PE ratio is determined by markets and hence the ratio will vary from time to time depending upon market moods. There is no one size fits all kind of answer to this question.

Determinants of PE ratio would include growth rates, ROE, balance sheet strength, future prospects, sectoral fancy, sectoral positioning like market leadership etc and so on and so forth. You can go through Basant Maheshwari’s The Thoughtful Investor or Pat Dorsey’s Five rules for successful investing to get a better idea on it.

There is no alternative to reading and digesting basic books on investing if one is serious about investing. In my list that would include Peter Lynch’s One Up on Wall Street and Pat Dorsey’s book mentioned earlier.


(thecroc) #3333

@hitesh2710 thanks for the response, I have read one up on Wall Street and the thoughtful investor. Yet I don’t have anything but intuition to guide me. I would like to know your opinion on whether PNB housing is really cheap right now as compared to gruh finance as that is the reason for my question😁


(Hitesh Patel) #3334

@thecroc

Regarding finding out whether PNB Hf Is cheap wrt gruh, u can do a small exercise.

Put up comparative figures like historical growth rates for say 3-5 years, in terms of revenues, profits, compare ROAs and ROEs of both companies, compare Book values of both cos, dividend payouts, NIMs, earnings and price earnings as of now (and historical if possible) , NPA ratios, provision coverage ratios and then try to figure out the query.

Besides these Gruh will always enjoy higher valuation because of the parentage it has as compared to PNBHF, besides the kind of clients it caters to and the competition which it is likely to face in its subsegment. (like how easy it is to dislodge Gruh vs PNBHF) . A crucial differentiating point would be the avg ticket size of loans of both companies.

According to my view, its difficult to compare gruh vs pnbhf because it is not an apples to apples comparision since the business segments both companies address are different and that leads to difference in competition both companies are likely to face.


(Whipsaw) #3335

Hi @hitesh2710 ,

What’s your view on NBFCs now?

Thanks


(DHUPER) #3336

Hi @hitesh2710 sir,

I have read the books recommended by VPickers such as One up the wall street, The Intelligent Investor and Pat Dorsey’s Five Rules for successful investing. Along with this I have also read Mark Minervini’s 2 books. I haven’t read any book specific to/targeting indian audiences and markets. Are you also of the view that Indian markets behave differently than what is mentioned in these books.

Thanks


(Divyanshu Bagga) #3337

In what way Indian markets differ? Can you elaborate.