Hitesh portfolio

(Growth_without Debt) #3161

Thanks. your template is not compatible with screener? I could not export data from screener

(bala.y.krishna) #3162

@Pradip - This excel extract seems to be nice how can we do that ? any insights is that your own or ?

Please confirm.

(prachi) #3164

Hi Hitesh
I was going through Deepak Nitrite charts . It showing little strength patterns in these days when other chemical sector stocks are falling. Do you track Deepak Nitrite ? What are your views on that ?
Thanks for your help

(Jashavant Patel) #3166

How do we find the sector which shows emerging signs?

(vipin111) #3167

The only emerging sector now seems to be the BEAR sector :thinking:. 10 years of a Bull run most of the sectors have participated. I think a time to clean up the excesses of the Bull run has started . The last men standing are the Tech guys and Reliance.

(pradip) #3168

Yes, its mine. Have received lot of help from @Yogesh_s and some other boarders to create it :slight_smile: Please find a user guide to help you use it at the link below -

(paresh.sarjani1) #3169

Sir just one simple question…
At this turbulent times of Indian market…how much percentage of cash you are holding as a percentage of portfolio and logic for same going forward with movement in markets…

Because my understanding is most of people won’t be sitting on bad companies but time is bad…and at these times people sell in panic…only to regret in future that they should have holded on…

(Hitesh Patel) #3170


Looking at the high CASA ratios and the problem the other NBFCs will face in getting funding post the ILFS fiasco it seems Equitas is well placed in terms of funding. The only thing to note is how well they manage their asset quality.

I would like to see their loan book growth with improving asset quality before taking a call. I would still maintain that financials have lost favour with markets and I feel (I could be wrong in this feeling too but its an educated guess) the whole sector will need some more time to be back on market favorite list.

(Hitesh Patel) #3171


The sector which is going to emerge as a market favorite in next bull market would manifest itself. The stocks in the sector will first of all not show too much weakness in relation to market correction. These sectoral stocks will also correct but will bounce back quickly and the drawdowns in these stocks will be less as compared to others. And once bear market nears its end or bull market starts these sectoral stocks would start moving first and rally hard.

But all this will happen once the bear market nears its end. At current juncture I dont have much idea where in the bear market we are.:grinning:

(Hitesh Patel) #3172


Deepak Nitrite seems on a strong wicket. Its planned expansion of 1400 crores is on track and the prices of phenol seem to be very strong.

At current juncture it seems earnings momentum in deepak nitrite would be quite strong for next couple of years atleast and thats what charts are reflecting. There seems to be strong buying in the zone of 265-275 and it seems to be facing some supply near 300-310 zone. It currently seems to be in strong hands. Need to see how it behaves if the ongoing correction extends further.

(Hitesh Patel) #3173


Currently I am sitting on 30-35% cash besides around 10% allocation in ITC. This cash has been raised by booking losses in financials to varying degrees. Problem is the rest of the 65% of portfolio is also bleeding profusely.:grinning:

No way out except to grin and bear the pain and do something when a favorable opportunity presents itself in terms of buying or selling.

I read a couple of Elliot Wave guys prediction and it seems they too are as confused as the rest of the market participants. Some guys feel there is an upmove left which can take nifty above 12000 plus and the fundamental argument which supports their view is that earnings cycle has just picked up.

The other view is that we have made a major top and are headed down. How much down is again a matter of debate. I concur with this view but looking at the kind of bloodshed that has happened in past few trading sessions, a counter trend rally may be on the cards. How strong and durable it can be needs to be seen. The bearish fundamental argument is of course pretty well known… FII sellling, weakening rupee, rising crude and so on. And if thats not enough there is State elections in December followed by May Loksabha elections.

(Ashish) #3174

Do you think spread out Sectoral portfolio allocation with quality names with growth visibility will matter more during this volatile markets?

(Jashavant Patel) #3175

Thanks a lot. I had forgotten to add another question " How to identify Sectoral stocks" , but you have already replied. Thanks Hiteshji

(ramanhp) #3176

May be a naive question (and thanks for your reply on Equitas). There is clearly an emerging scenario where the Indian equities are not necessarily cheap. The Crude is confidently rising towards 100 dollars(Especially after the Iran sanctions come to effect in Nov) 2.Rising interest rates 3. Rupee depreciating 4. Some negative revelations from top Financial institutions and finally the forthcoming general elections. Except for an anticipation of good earning season ahead, there are more dampeners. Would not even a long term investor make a clear exit and enter when these cycles turn or all the negatives are discounted. I know this may sound as trying to time the market but my whole point is; Are there phases when one should invest in non-equity assets( Those options are topic of altogether another discussion). I am not sure if dividends help during a low or negative equity return period.Thanks

(Shailesh) #3177

I have put across some guidelines Portfolio Analysis - Shailesh how to build and change portfolio during different times ( market levels , interest rates etc ) … based on my 17 odd years of experiences in managing my finances … Hope it is useful and addresses your question.

(atul1082) #3178

All the points noted by you will lead to reduction in earnings especially increase in fuel and borrowing cost. So earnings improvement may not b there

(Jashavant Patel) #3179

Today you wrote that "I read a couple of Elliot Wave guys prediction and it seems they too are as confused as the rest of the market participants. " May we know which site you find such news about EW? Many times we find that the wave will move nicely up to 3 to 4 waves and then it violates the whole cycle.
Along with EW are you also using Candle Stick patterns indicators like Hammer , H and S, Ascending triangles , Engulfed pattern etc?

(paresh.sarjani1) #3180

I believe @hitesh2710 is referring to this thread below

Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

You can check technical study here


Crude is inching higher. May remain at elevated levels for sometime. Do you track Selan exploration? This has not run up much. Is it a good stock to buy to play on the crude price rise. Invested at 220 levels? Planning to add more if it comes to 200 levels.

(vrs) #3182

Hitesh ji,

  1. Whether HDFC AMC can be bought at these levels around 1300?
  2. Your views on ALLCARGO esp. after massive correction. I am not clear why it has corrected a lot.